French presidential election, 2022

[President Johnson]

So Hildalgo has no chance to make it to the runoff? I found her candidacy somewhat impressing and would probably vote her in the first round.

However, in the second round, Macron is obviously superior to all the right wing candidates.

[President Johnson]

Macron officially confirmes what was already known, that he'll to run for reelection. Endorsed.

https://twitter.com/visactu/status/1499471999764246545

[President Johnson]

Macron just presented second term agenda:

https://twitter.com/breakingnewsie/status/1504528002780065800

[President Johnson]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

Absolutely, it would be terrible for unity of the European Union.

After Macron surged following the war outbreak, I actually thought he had this in the bag. Somehow this gives me Virginia 2021 vibes.

[President Johnson]

An important thing to understand about French politics these days is that the average Le Pen supporter is not an angry young man or an embittered pensioner, but an ordinary person in an ordinary job with children at school and with tricky household budgets to manage. They are sensitive to the cost of living and suspect (rightly) that they are getting badly served by public services, particularly when compared to other groups even if they generally misidentify who those other groups are.* They are, undeniably, quite racist by usual North Western European norms, but so are people who are far less likely to vote for Le Pen: that's just France. It is a sobering thought, but the sort of people who Le Pen centres her appeal around and wishes to drive to the polls in large numbers are the sort of people that Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz and so on also spend most of their time trying to appeal to. But perhaps even worse is that no one else in French politics really tries seriously to appeal to this section of the electorate. So long as this remains true, it is very hard to find any hope in French politics.

_{*Which, by the way, is why left-wing appeals to preserve the social state and so on have fallen flat for years and continue to do so. Of course the French social state (I use this term rather than the more familiar welfare state for a reason) is rather unusually structured and funded: put bluntly, the principle beneficiaries are not those who one might expect of a more typical welfare state. That all of this is a major contribution to the structural factors underpinning far-right political support is rarely acknowledged but undeniably true.}

You're raising fair points. The question is just whether LePen is actually able or willing to do something serious about that. And I'm very skeptical she has practical solutions to these problems, especially with her anti-EU stances that would harm France's economy. Just to throw a tantrum at the "power elite" by electing a far right-winger doesn't solve a damn problem. You can doubt Macron is the right leader to tackle these problems, but there are other candidates available in the first round. Voters could send someone else to th runoff. And just because Zemmour appears more extreme doesn't mean LePen isn't. Her presidency would be a total s-show.

[President Johnson]

It’s interesting how Macrom appeared to have a 5 year strategy of essentially hugging the traditional centre right- it seems to have killed the LR in the first round but doesn’t seem to be benefiting him in the second round, nor massively increasing his first round vote.

I wonder if he’ll wheel out Sarkosky to endorse him…

Sarkozy did so already in 2017? Anyway, I don't think an endorsement by the old crook would change much at all.

[President Johnson]

My prediction:

Emmanuel Macron (inc.): 27.4%
Marine LePen: 23.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 18.4%
Eric Zemmour: 8.5%
Valérie Pécresse: 7.5%
.
.
Anne Hidalgo: 2.3%


As of now, I'd say Macron wins the runoff 54-46%.

[President Johnson]

As an Muslim- American, I hope Macron wins.

As German and passionate supporter of the European Union, I certainly do as well. Le Pen would be catastrophe for the entire Western world.

I think he'll pull it off, but can't take it for granted. He has to adjust his strategy and crisscross France to campaign. I guess he thought just appearing statesman-like in Ukraine crisis and rely on incumbency is enough.

[President Johnson]

Macron very strong in the debate so far. Called Le Pen Putin’s dependent.

Yeah, I like what I see so far (fortunately, German television translates in real time). However, Macron was always rhetorically strong.

[President Johnson]

The TV ratings seem to confirm that there's a lack of enthusiasm for the election in general. I guess turnout will be lower than last time around, possibly the lowest in recent French elections. I just hope this doesn't lead to unpleasant surprise in the end, since anti-LePen voters stay home, assuming Macron wins reelection anyway. Some folks also stayed home in 2016 because they thought Hillary had this in the bag.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1517041819552522240

25-34 year olds are the only group Le Pen is leading with (and by 20 points)

Macron leads 18-24s by 8 points and 65+ by 30 points

I guess this is because this age group is most distressed economically? The irony here, of course, is that LePen's economic policies and her anti-EU stances would sink the French economy.

[President Johnson]

At this point, I'd be surprised by single digit margin. Macron should win this by double digits.

[President Johnson]

Another Ipsos poll out:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517623614840971264

[President Johnson]

VIVE MACRON!

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518289171156189194

[President Johnson]

Now on to winning the legislative elections. La Repulique en marche!

[President Johnson]

Worth noting that this is the first re-election of a sitting French President for twenty years.

Macron has under his belt two of the most most one sided victories, with Chirac in 2002 being of course something exceptional. He's extremely close to Pompidou's margin.

What's also interesting here is that Macron was polling even better against the other candidates. So if Macron faced off against Melenchon, Zemmour or Pecresse, he would most likely have won even bigger.

[President Johnson]

Macron has been inaugurated for his second term today.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1522968273607868422