The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.
McConnell is extremely unpopular and still won by 15% in 2014, when all the pundits called it a Toss-Up race and the Democrats spent the kitchen sink to try and defeat him. If Kentucky were less Republican-leaning, maybe Bevin would be vulnerable, but it's become one of the most Republican states in the country, and it's not electing a Democrat statewide this year. Grimes seems to understand that.
I agree. The question is only why the polls often got this wrong and give Democrats false hopes. The shy Trump voter? Or do Republican voters just wake up late into the cycle?
Poll
