Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[MalaspinaGold]

Yishai calls his party Maran, while Maran's daughter is staying with Deri.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.631743

I just have a feeling that this will backfire on Yishai...

Also, elections to the Meretz steering committee will take place December 28 (good luck hnv1!) and the list will be chosen January 19th.

Also, more on the Herzog-Livni deal: spot 17 will be reserved for an Arab, 18 for a Kibbutznik, and the 11th place is Herzog's to pick, he'll probably put Mofaz there.

EDIT: Bayit Yehudi MK Yoni Chetboun has left Bayit Yehudi. If Ariel wants to bring in major funding for a merger with Yishai, getting Chetboun is critical. Chetboun is of course sephardic.
http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/MK-Yoni-Chetboun-to-leave-Bayit-Yehudi-party-384643

[MalaspinaGold]

And it looks like Yishai trolled us- the name will in fact be Ha'am Itanu- The Nation is with us

In his kickoff speech he sounds like a Kachlon copycat:
“The nation is with us because the nation wants unity, wants to finally break down the barriers between the religious and secular, between Ashkenazi and Sephardi [Jews],” Yishai said. “The nation is with us because the nation wants social justice and concern for the poor, to the underprivileged, the periphery and development towns."

Also, Chetboun has officially joined in with Yishai, but it doesn't seem like he'll be getting many if any Shas MKs, most of them pledged their loyalty to Deri already- then again you never know.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-shas-mk-yishai-called-traitor-as-he-unveils-new-party/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[MalaspinaGold]

Here's a video of the Yishai press conference... all seemed to go smoothly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nplcoZXLn-I#t=87

EDIT: So, people seem to be confused as to what exactly Yishai's party name will be- some say Ha'am Itanu, others say Yachad.

[MalaspinaGold]

Bahloul will run with Labor, as will most likely Trajtenberg.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/soccer-radio-wiz-bahloul-likely-to-run-for-labor-seat/
This will be a loss for Meretz and Kachlon respectively.

Anyone know Trajtenberg's economic views?

[MalaspinaGold]

Whoever bribes Rivlin more

Just kidding, it's  whoever bribes Kachon more, since it's almost certain no one can get a majority without him, and it depends on how the other center parties do- the more seats Lieberman has, the more likely Bibi will form the coalition.

What's interesting is with the fragmentation of Shas, Yesh Atid now has a chance of being larger than Shas + UTJ, and so a secular-left coalition is not out of the running yet.

[MalaspinaGold]

Trajtenberg is getting the spot people thought was going to Mofaz?

He'll probably get the second spot secured for Livni's people (which will mean we'll see Mitzna booted to a very unrealistic place). Mofaz is not quite there yet and from what I gather from friends in Labour there are many people there who do'n't want to see him getting that spot. Mofaz is both right wing, unappealing, and has a hunch of huge debts with Kadima.
Diskin is still reluctant to hop in so Labour have to decide between Mofaz and former MG Yadlin (who isn't that dovish as well). We might see a very funny thing when Meretz will have an ex general on the list (Eyal Ben Reuven) and Labour won't.

Only 38 candidates  in the Labour primaries with no new big names. Bahloul I mentioned earlier decided to try his luck there.

I think that with the new threshold and the mess the political map is in we might even see another election very soon.

What is the probability of this happening?
EDIT: Nvm, here's a Ynet article mentioning him running, along with Avirama Golan and Avi Dabush:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602577,00.html

About Trajtenberg, I guess I see the reason for him to join with Labor-Livni rather than Kachlon- since Labor-Livni is much more likely to form a coalition than Kachlon, he is in a better position to unconditionally demand the finance ministry, especially since Kachlon will possibly angle for that position also.

Regarding Mitzna, is there a possibility that he might run with labor, rather than accept 25th place or whatever through Livni? It is his old party after all.

[MalaspinaGold]

Stern breaks with Livni, he may decide to join another party...
http://www.timesofisrael.com/mk-stern-breaks-from-hatnua-blames-livni/

[MalaspinaGold]

RIP Mitzna

In other news, Third Temple advocate Yehuda Glick will be running for a spot on the Likud slate... he doesn't want to be placed in a realistic spot though.

Also with all these shenanigans Bennett must be squealing with excitement right now.

[MalaspinaGold]

Didn't he merge with Likud like a year ago?

[MalaspinaGold]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

[MalaspinaGold]

So, will five of those ten people running for the 2-6 bracket just not end up on the list? That hardly seems like a fair system.

They'll end up on the list, just not in a realistic spot. They'll be in the 17th-120th spots.

No, you can run for two brackets. All are except Gilon, Horowitz, and Frej. Gilon and Horowitz are currently 2 and 3 and so I don't think have much to worry about. Frej seems to be repeating his strategy from last time, when he stated that as the Arab rep, he wanted either to be in a realistic spot or no spot at all.

I think this is how the system works, but it would be nice if hnv1 went more in depth (can you run for three brackets?)

[MalaspinaGold]

In other news, Danon is literally a man-child:
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=834060653283841

[MalaspinaGold]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

Yeah the system is pretty weird (it's also gender balanceed, meaning every second spot is reserved for women). Why are only national convention members voting on the list? well back in the days the Kibbutz had an unbalanced power amongs members and this day the Tel Aviv branch has unbalanced power and this system assures a fairer race.

Well the very quick process (they local primaries and the national primaries are a week apart) forced  by the shock elections made  it very hard for new outside contenders to compete. None of them had a functioning election staff yet (part for Dabush).

There are no new "big" name. Zaki was umber 10 in 2013, Lasky ran in 2009. Vilan and Raz run every time (the joke is what ever spot Raz is Meretz get minus 2 mandates). Ron Shavit was a minor journalist. Nir Lahav is big in the cooperative movement, and Itai Svirsky is the leader of a new democratic workers' union Kock Laovdim - power to the workers). The rest are pretty mediocre local figures.

The downside of this process is the election are almost 60% pre-set by the 4-5 different groups of the convention.

Regarding the Likud I think it will be Ardan at #2 (generic and avoids conflicts) and than Katz (the opposite). Either way the interesting primaries will be that of the JH

What happened to Ben Reuven and Golan? Was there a problem with paperwork or something or did they back out? Also have you figured out how you will be voting for the first and second brackets?

What's the overall mood in Likud right now? Is it going to be like last time where there was a slaughter of the moderates?

What moderates are there left to slaughter?

[MalaspinaGold]

So... this happened:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.634376

[MalaspinaGold]

Apparently in his move to the center, Lieberman was plotting to kick his right flank off the island... the three the article mentioned were Landau, Shamir, and Rotem. Maybe Landau got the hint early?

[MalaspinaGold]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

[MalaspinaGold]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

Who's the third member since Ben-Dahan decided to stay with Jewish Home? (He's one of those 4 Tkuma members).

Also, since we're talking about these right-wing factions, I have a question -- does Moledet still exist? It definitely existed as a faction within the National Union during the 2009-2013 Knesset, when Ya'akov Katz was widely reported to be its sole MK. In 2013, Hatikva and Eretz Yisrael Shelanu merged to form Otzma LeYisrael, which was excluded from the Knesset, while Tkuma and Moledet joined with Jewish Home. But while it's known who the members of JH are that are really part of Tkuma, it's not clear whether any Jewish Home MKs consider themselves to be part of Moledet, or if Katz was really the final one.

The three members are Ariel, Stuck, and Kalfa. Chetboun was not a part of Tekumah.

[MalaspinaGold]

All the Shas MKs also tendered resignation letters....
http://www.timesofisrael.com/shas-party-leader-deri-set-to-resign/

We'll see if the Rabbis accept it. It could just be that Deri is hoping for an outpouring of support. He still has two days in which to revoke it.

[MalaspinaGold]

In a surprise move, MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz) announces he's retiring.

[MalaspinaGold]

Is there any reason why? "Wanting to go in a new direction doesn't seem convincing...

Also, when can we expect results from the Likud primary?

EDIT: It seems that the Committee elections a few days ago didn't go well for him. Still I can't imagine he was in any real danger, given his prominence and popularity.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Meretz-MK-Nitzan-Horowitz-leaves-politics-after-six-years-386280

[MalaspinaGold]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

Damn.  Any particular reason why the relationship between him and Gal-on was so bad?

By rumours, He thought she (meaning the party) didn't back him enough for the mayor run. And my assumption is she also feared he would try to run against her for leadership considering he's more popular with the general public

Do you think there will be a significant number of people who won't vote for a Meretz without Horowitz? And who do you think is most likely to replace him?

[MalaspinaGold]

Sore loserman MK Moshe Feiglin will break from Likud to form his own party, which may either contest the election itself or ally with another right wing prty such as Haam Itanu or Otzma...

[MalaspinaGold]

It seems Labor will run on the same socioeconomic agenda they campaigned on last time.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.636980

Only time will tell whether or not it will be more successful.

[MalaspinaGold]

The results:
1) Naftali Bennett,
2) Uri Ariel (Tekuma)
3) Ayelet Shaked
4) Eli Ben-Dahan
5) Nissan Slomiansky
6) Uri Orbach
7) Yinon Magal
Shuli Mualem
9) Bezalel Smotrich (Tekuma)
10) Moti Yogev
11) Avi Wortzman
12) Nir Orbach
13) Avi Ronski
14) Spot designated for a woman
15) Orit Struck (Tekuma)
16) Ronen Shoval
17) Spot designated for a woman.
18)Zvulun Kalfa

[MalaspinaGold]

Rabbi Shimon Or?
All I read about him is he wants the National Religious to seize control of the Israeli government from the seculars and run the country to suit themselves.