Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Former Ambassador to the US Michael Oren has joined Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu, the first notable person to do so, as far as I can tell.

[danny]

The actual Hatnuah members don't seem to be very enthusiastic about the agreement Livni has set up; both David Tzur and Amram Mitzna have announced over the past few days that they won't be seeking reelection; and Elazar Stern has already said that he would be seeking reelection with a party other than the new Labor-Hatnuah list (which it's increasingly clear is basically just Labor, with Trajtenberg having been recruited by Labor and promised one of Hatnuah's slots).

The deal was good for Livni with the rotation, but was far less beneficial for the other party members. But it isn't a real problem since the Movement isn't a real party, just a tool that Livni needed, and she's the only one that really matters there.

[MalaspinaGold]

RIP Mitzna

In other news, Third Temple advocate Yehuda Glick will be running for a spot on the Likud slate... he doesn't want to be placed in a realistic spot though.

Also with all these shenanigans Bennett must be squealing with excitement right now.

[Famous Mortimer]

Another long shot Likud primary candidate:

Corrupt businessman and vote buying former MK Shmuel Flatto-Sharon, who was elected as an independent* to the Knesset way back in 1977.

*Yes, he ran as an independent under a party list system, actually won enough votes for 2 seats, and had to forgo the second one.

[Vosem]

Another long shot Likud primary candidate:

Corrupt businessman and vote buying former MK Shmuel Flatto-Sharon, who was elected as an independent* to the Knesset way back in 1977.

*Yes, he ran as an independent under a party list system, actually won enough votes for 2 seats, and had to forgo the second one.

He's wealthy and might have an actual shot -- the interesting question is why now, at age 84, when he's had decades to return to politics should he want to.

RIP Mitzna

In other news, Third Temple advocate Yehuda Glick will be running for a spot on the Likud slate... he doesn't want to be placed in a realistic spot though.

Also with all these shenanigans Bennett must be squealing with excitement right now.

Glick was in some unwinnable slot in 2013. This is basically just a way for him to endorse the Likud; I don't think he actually wants to be an MK.

[Famous Mortimer]

A big corruption scandal involving Israel Beitenu (surprise surprise) with deputy minister Kirshenbaum, former minister Maszhinkov and many party politicos involved. Liberman is trying to break to the centre this might make him re-break to the right again

I doubt this will have much effect at all. Kirshenbaum and Maszhinkov are faceless seatfillers. Lieberman will simply not reappoint them to realistic spots when he makes up his list.

[Vosem]

A big corruption scandal involving Israel Beitenu (surprise surprise) with deputy minister Kirshenbaum, former minister Maszhinkov and many party politicos involved. Liberman is trying to break to the centre this might make him re-break to the right again

I doubt this will have much effect at all. Kirshenbaum and Maszhinkov are faceless seatfillers. Lieberman will simply not reappoint them to realistic spots when he makes up his list.

*Misezhnikov was already kicked off the island in 2013; he's history. Kirschenbaum is supposed to be a very close Lieberman confidante, though, so we'll see if he's really willing to get rid of her. In the past, when Beiteinu MKs have gotten too controversial he's just knocked them off the list (Esterina Tartman and Anastasia Michaeli come to mind).

[Vosem]

The actual Hatnuah members don't seem to be very enthusiastic about the agreement Livni has set up; both David Tzur and Amram Mitzna have announced over the past few days that they won't be seeking reelection; and Elazar Stern has already said that he would be seeking reelection with a party other than the new Labor-Hatnuah list (which it's increasingly clear is basically just Labor, with Trajtenberg having been recruited by Labor and promised one of Hatnuah's slots).

And Meir Sheetrit is out as well. So the only Hatnuah MKs on Labor's list will be Livni herself and Peretz, and of the others Stern is considering running as part of a different party and the other three are out.

JPost says that with Sheetrit and Ben-Eliezer gone in the next Knesset, Peretz will be the most senior MK. This depends on how you count, I think -- Peretz's service since 1988 is unbroken, but Uzi Landau was first elected in 1984, though he left 2006-2009.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Let's go, Likud!

[Vosem]

The Labor Party has approved the candidacy of Eldad Yaniv in the primaries, who led the minor party Eretz Hadasha in 2013, but it has rejected the candidacy of Shachiv Shnaan, who has served twice as an MK: from 2008-2009 as a member of Labor, and from 2012-2013 as a member of the now-defunct Independence Party of Ehud Barak. There is now a third confirmed candidate for Kulanu, after Moshe Kahlon and Michael Oren: Eli Alaluf, who was the head of a Knesset-appointed anti-poverty commission.

EDIT: In further news, Am Shalem, a minor party led by former Shas MK Haim Amsalem, plans to run again in 2015. This will make it harder for Shas and Ha'Am Itanu to cross the threshold. Am Shalem got over 1% of the vote in 2013, but the new threshold should make Knesset seats basically impossible. Ayoob Kara, a Druze who has served three terms as a Likud MK (1999-2006 and 2009-2013) before being demoted to an impossibly low slot in 2013, is running for a spot on the Likud list, hoping to reenter the Knesset.

[MalaspinaGold]

Didn't he merge with Likud like a year ago?

[Vosem]

Didn't he merge with Likud like a year ago?

Arutz Sheva says he plans to run alone after being rebuffed by Jewish Home: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/189123#.VJyS9sAw

But JPost reported a while ago that he was going to seek a position on Likud's list: http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Haim-Amsallem-joins-Likud-criticizes-Bayit-Yehudi-for-stance-on-conversion-347309

So...

[danny]

Didn't he merge with Likud like a year ago?

There was no merger, He simply joined the Likud himself and told his supporters to do the same. The problem for him is that the elections came too soon, which means that his supporters don't have the necessary tenure to vote in the primaries, so he gave up on that idea for the current elections, but hasn't officially announced what he will be doing instead.

[Famous Mortimer]

Do the Likud typically reserve seats for minorities/non-Jews?

If so, Ayoob Kara probably has a good shot.

Likud didn't need him last time because Beytenu provided their own token Druze.

[Famous Mortimer]

Not important but interesting:

Former Knesset Speaker and briefly Labor Party leader Avraham Burg has kinda sorta endorsed Hadash.

http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/53920-141209-my-message-to-the-arabs-of-israel

Not really surprising. I remember a few years ago he was planning to launch his own Arab-Jewish unity party but it never got off the ground.

[MalaspinaGold]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

[Famous Mortimer]

Rabbi Ehud Bandel ran last time too and did horribly.

[Vosem]

So, will five of those ten people running for the 2-6 bracket just not end up on the list? That hardly seems like a fair system.

[Famous Mortimer]

So, will five of those ten people running for the 2-6 bracket just not end up on the list? That hardly seems like a fair system.

They'll end up on the list, just not in a realistic spot. They'll be in the 17th-120th spots.

[MalaspinaGold]

So, will five of those ten people running for the 2-6 bracket just not end up on the list? That hardly seems like a fair system.

They'll end up on the list, just not in a realistic spot. They'll be in the 17th-120th spots.

No, you can run for two brackets. All are except Gilon, Horowitz, and Frej. Gilon and Horowitz are currently 2 and 3 and so I don't think have much to worry about. Frej seems to be repeating his strategy from last time, when he stated that as the Arab rep, he wanted either to be in a realistic spot or no spot at all.

I think this is how the system works, but it would be nice if hnv1 went more in depth (can you run for three brackets?)

[ag]

Not important but interesting:

Former Knesset Speaker and briefly Labor Party leader Avraham Burg has kinda sorta endorsed Hadash.

http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/53920-141209-my-message-to-the-arabs-of-israel

Not really surprising. I remember a few years ago he was planning to launch his own Arab-Jewish unity party but it never got off the ground.

Good. He should be on their list. They should be able to elect two Jews.

[danny]

Do the Likud typically reserve seats for minorities/non-Jews?

If so, Ayoob Kara probably has a good shot.

Likud didn't need him last time because Beytenu provided their own token Druze.

This is how the Likud list will look like:

1) Head of the party, chosen in separate elections.
2-10, 12-15,17,20,25-26,31,34,36-117) National primary list
16,18-19,21-22,28-29,32-33,35) chosen in separate district primaries.
11,23,118-120) Hand picked choice by the head of the party.

within the national list there the following guarantees (cancelled if someone who fits this description is elected in a higher position) :
15) reserved for a woman.
23) Hand picked choice by the head of the party.
24) reserved for a non-Jew.
25) reserved for a woman who hasn't previously serve as an MK.
27) reserved for a a person who has immigrated since 1983, and hasn't previously served as an MK.
30) reserved for someone who is under 35 years old, and hasn't previously served as an MK.
31) reserved for a woman.
34) reserved for a woman who hasn't previously serve as an MK.


So there is a spot reserved for a non-Jew, but 24 isn't guaranteed to be enough. He also has a Muslim former army general and head of the Zarzir council running against him for this spot.

[Famous Mortimer]

Are people talking about who will win the Likud primary (ie the number 2 spot) yet?

Presumably Erdan should get it pretty easily, since he's consistently been the top vote getter of the people still running.

He's always struck me as very generic though. I don't understand his appeal. Is there a chance Dannon could win? Netanyahu would have to be scared of that, right?

[MalaspinaGold]

In other news, Danon is literally a man-child:
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=834060653283841

[danny]

In other news, Danon is literally a man-child:
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=834060653283841

Not the first for videos like this, last elections we had "Elkin Style": http://youtu.be/wG5B5fE7_1k