Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

the almost final list:

1) Netanyahu
2) Ardan
3) Edelstein
4) Yisrael Katz
5) Regev
6) Shalom
7) Ye'elon
8 ) Elkin
9) Hanegbi
10) Dannon
11) (Bibi's pick)
12) Levin
13) Steinitz
14) Gamliel
15) Akunis
16) David Bitan (district)
17) Haim Katz
18) Jaki Levi (district)
19) Yoav Kish (district)
20) Avi Dichter (the only “new” guy from the national list)
21) David Amsalem (district)
22) Micki Zohar (district)
23) (Bibi's pick)
24) Ayub Kara (minority)
25) Nava Boker (new woman)
26) Hotobeli
27) Avraham Nagusa (new immigrant)

[Vosem]

So Feiglin is out and Hotovely is out without a lot of luck?

[danny]

So Feiglin is out and Hotovely is out without a lot of luck?

Yes

[Vosem]

So Feiglin is out and Hotovely is out without a lot of luck?

Yes

What happened to Hotovely? She didn't seem to be a particularly controversial or prominent member. And who are likely to be Bibi's two picks? Is he going to parachute in star candidates, or put in his own loyalists, or could he promote people who did poorly in the primaries who he feels deserve election?

[danny]

So Feiglin is out and Hotovely is out without a lot of luck?

Yes

What happened to Hotovely? She didn't seem to be a particularly controversial or prominent member. And who are likely to be Bibi's two picks? Is he going to parachute in star candidates, or put in his own loyalists, or could he promote people who did poorly in the primaries who he feels deserve election?

Part of it is that going to events of party activists is quite useful for getting elected, something that Hotovely isn't known for doing much of. The other thing is that 20K new people joined the Jewish Home in the last few weeks, some of those came from the Likud, and the sort of people that would go from the Likud to JH are likely to have voted for Hotovely.

[danny]

Final vote count for the national list:

position   candidate   votes   notes
1   Gilad Ardan   36287   
2   Yuli Edelsein   33900   
3   Yisrael Katz   33259   
4   Miri Regev   31090   
5   Silvan Shalom   28106   
6   Moshe Ye'elon   27096   
7   Ze'ev Elkin   24274   
8   Tzachi Hanegbi   23538   
9   Danny Dannon   22994   
10   Yariv Levin   22497   
11   Yuval Steinitz   22481   
12   Gila Gamliel   22381   
13   Ofir Akunis   21914   
14   Haim Katz   21074   
15   Avi Dichter   20085   
16   Tzipi Hotovely   19331   
17   Moshe Feiglin   13224   
18   Ayub Kara   13115   Moved up for being minority
19   Michael Ratzon   10286   
20   Idan Pinhas   9996   
21   Shevach Shtern   6973   
22   Avraham Nagusa   6801   Moved up for being new immigrant
23   Oren Hazan   5381   
24   Nava Boker   5276   Moved up for being new woman
25   Shai Malka   4511   
26   Miriam Heskel   3739   
27   Amir Veitman   3493   
28   Osnat Mark   3335   
29   Ayelet Galili   2995   
30   Patin Mula   2920   
31   Naftali Naor   2914   
32   Hassan Hayeb   2747   
33   Ayala Shtegman   1501   
34   Netanel Lipan   1336   
35   Ya'akov Keinan   1116   
36   Shimon Sharel   1110   
37   Jacki Pinto   939   
38   Silva Mizrahi   600   

[Hnv1]

On one hand Bibi can paint this list as more centrist; on the other hand, it's very dull and boring. But considering Labour+Livni is going to be rather dull and centrist as well I think we'll finally have a head to head election between the parties again.

[Vosem]

When is the deadline for submitting the lists, so we'll know about all the candidates and all non-candidates? End of January?

[Gali]

Final vote count for the national list:

position   candidate   votes   notes
1   Gilad Ardan   36287   
2   Yuli Edelsein   33900   
3   Yisrael Katz   33259   
4   Miri Regev   31090   
5   Silvan Shalom   28106   
6   Moshe Ye'elon   27096   
7   Ze'ev Elkin   24274   
8   Tzachi Hanegbi   23538   
9   Danny Dannon   22994   
10   Yariv Levin   22497   
11   Yuval Steinitz   22481   
12   Gila Gamliel   22381   
13   Ofir Akunis   21914   
14   Haim Katz   21074   
15   Avi Dichter   20085   
16   Tzipi Hotovely   19331   
17   Moshe Feiglin   13224   
18   Ayub Kara   13115   Moved up for being minority
19   Michael Ratzon   10286   
20   Idan Pinhas   9996   
21   Shevach Shtern   6973   
22   Avraham Nagusa   6801   Moved up for being new immigrant
23   Oren Hazan   5381   
24   Nava Boker   5276   Moved up for being new woman
25   Shai Malka   4511   
26   Miriam Heskel   3739   
27   Amir Veitman   3493   
28   Osnat Mark   3335   
29   Ayelet Galili   2995   
30   Patin Mula   2920   
31   Naftali Naor   2914   
32   Hassan Hayeb   2747   
33   Ayala Shtegman   1501   
34   Netanel Lipan   1336   
35   Ya'akov Keinan   1116   
36   Shimon Sharel   1110   
37   Jacki Pinto   939   
38   Silva Mizrahi   600   

shalom dany,

how did Moshe Feiglin get to number 17 on your list ?
and where did you get this final list from ?

[Hnv1]

Final vote count for the national list:

position   candidate   votes   notes
1   Gilad Ardan   36287   
2   Yuli Edelsein   33900   
3   Yisrael Katz   33259   
4   Miri Regev   31090   
5   Silvan Shalom   28106   
6   Moshe Ye'elon   27096   
7   Ze'ev Elkin   24274   
8   Tzachi Hanegbi   23538   
9   Danny Dannon   22994   
10   Yariv Levin   22497   
11   Yuval Steinitz   22481   
12   Gila Gamliel   22381   
13   Ofir Akunis   21914   
14   Haim Katz   21074   
15   Avi Dichter   20085   
16   Tzipi Hotovely   19331   
17   Moshe Feiglin   13224   
18   Ayub Kara   13115   Moved up for being minority
19   Michael Ratzon   10286   
20   Idan Pinhas   9996   
21   Shevach Shtern   6973   
22   Avraham Nagusa   6801   Moved up for being new immigrant
23   Oren Hazan   5381   
24   Nava Boker   5276   Moved up for being new woman
25   Shai Malka   4511   
26   Miriam Heskel   3739   
27   Amir Veitman   3493   
28   Osnat Mark   3335   
29   Ayelet Galili   2995   
30   Patin Mula   2920   
31   Naftali Naor   2914   
32   Hassan Hayeb   2747   
33   Ayala Shtegman   1501   
34   Netanel Lipan   1336   
35   Ya'akov Keinan   1116   
36   Shimon Sharel   1110   
37   Jacki Pinto   939   
38   Silva Mizrahi   600   

shalom dany,

how did Moshe Feiglin get to number 17 on your list ?
and where did you get this final list from ?

It's sorted by the number of votes recieved not by final placement

[danny]

Final vote count for the national list:

position   candidate   votes   notes
1   Gilad Ardan   36287   
2   Yuli Edelsein   33900   
3   Yisrael Katz   33259   
4   Miri Regev   31090   
5   Silvan Shalom   28106   
6   Moshe Ye'elon   27096   
7   Ze'ev Elkin   24274   
8   Tzachi Hanegbi   23538   
9   Danny Dannon   22994   
10   Yariv Levin   22497   
11   Yuval Steinitz   22481   
12   Gila Gamliel   22381   
13   Ofir Akunis   21914   
14   Haim Katz   21074   
15   Avi Dichter   20085   
16   Tzipi Hotovely   19331   
17   Moshe Feiglin   13224   
18   Ayub Kara   13115   Moved up for being minority
19   Michael Ratzon   10286   
20   Idan Pinhas   9996   
21   Shevach Shtern   6973   
22   Avraham Nagusa   6801   Moved up for being new immigrant
23   Oren Hazan   5381   
24   Nava Boker   5276   Moved up for being new woman
25   Shai Malka   4511   
26   Miriam Heskel   3739   
27   Amir Veitman   3493   
28   Osnat Mark   3335   
29   Ayelet Galili   2995   
30   Patin Mula   2920   
31   Naftali Naor   2914   
32   Hassan Hayeb   2747   
33   Ayala Shtegman   1501   
34   Netanel Lipan   1336   
35   Ya'akov Keinan   1116   
36   Shimon Sharel   1110   
37   Jacki Pinto   939   
38   Silva Mizrahi   600   

shalom dany,

how did Moshe Feiglin get to number 17 on your list ?
and where did you get this final list from ?

This is not the final likud list, this is just votes for the national list. The final list will include Bibi, his two hand picked choices , and the district candidates. You can find the full list a few posts earlier.

[Famous Mortimer]

Has there been any speculation about who Bibi will pick?

Might he pick Hotovely, since apparently they are close now? Or would that be too anti-democratic and cause resentment?

[danny]

Has there been any speculation about who Bibi will pick?

Might he pick Hotovely, since apparently they are close now? Or would that be too anti-democratic and cause resentment?

I don't know who he will pick, but I don't think it will someone who ran in the primaries. Also, Hotovely has a good chance of getting in anyway, close elections could cause votes to go towards the big two, like in 2009.

[danny]

When is the deadline for submitting the lists, so we'll know about all the candidates and all non-candidates? End of January?

January 29.

[Peter the Lefty]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The polls look unusually stable, except for certain scandal-magnet parties.

[jaichind]

4   Miri Regev   31090   

Not good news for Netanyahu

Netanyahu 'repelled' by style of Likud's new top-ranked woman

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.634996

Or is this a way for Netanyahu to look more moderate ?

[The Mikado]

The polls look unusually stable, except for certain scandal-magnet parties.

Who is Shas tanking good for? Jewish Home?

[Hnv1]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

[Peter the Lefty]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

Damn.  Any particular reason why the relationship between him and Gal-on was so bad?

[Hnv1]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

Damn.  Any particular reason why the relationship between him and Gal-on was so bad?

By rumours, He thought she (meaning the party) didn't back him enough for the mayor run. And my assumption is she also feared he would try to run against her for leadership considering he's more popular with the general public

[Famous Mortimer]

Former Knesset Speaker and former Labor MK Avraham Burg has officially joined Hadash.

Burg ran for Labor party leader in the '00s and actually won the title for a little bit but his victory was overturned in a recount.

His father was the leader of the National Religious Party, which became The Jewish Home.

He's been identifying as non-Zionist for a while and he already endorsed Hadash so this latest move isn't all that surprising.

Still, it's quite an image.

[Vosem]

Haaretz reports that Faina Kirschenbaum asked Lieberman not to seek reelection, but that Lieberman convinced her to seek another term on the Yisrael Beiteinu list. JPost reports that Netanyahu is looking for a woman to fill the 11th slot on the Likud list, and speculates that Miriam Feirberg, the mayor of Netanya, could be it. Arutz Sheva has a conspiracy theory-ish but interesting article out saying that prominent Netanyahu ally and Modi'in mayor Haim Bibas waged an undercover anti-Feiglin campaign that was responsible for his poor showing.

Jewish Home's primaries will be on the fourteenth, but Jewish Home is more obsessed with reserving spots than Likud, so large parts of the list are already apparent. Slot 1 is reserved for the leader -- Naftali Bennett. Slots 2, 9, 14, and 18 are reserved for members of Tkuma -- likely to be Uri Ariel, Zvulun Kalfa, Orit Strook, and someone new, in that order (though Strook could be bumped up for being a woman). Slots 4, 8, 12, and 17 are reserved for women, with 4 likely to go to MK Ayelet Shaked and 8 likely to go to MK Shuli Moalem. Slots 3, 6, and 11 are reserved for candidates of Bennett's choosing, with star candidate Yinon Magal having been promised one of these slots and likely to get the third. Lastly, 10 is reserved for a member of the Jewish Home's national committee, so it will certainly be someone new -- there are four candidates running for this slot. So, heavily speculative, this is what the top ten Jewish Home list looks like:

1. Naftali Bennet (leader)
2. Uri Ariel (leader of Tkuma)
3. Yinon Magal (or whoever Bennett picks; Yinon Magal has been promised a slot)
4. Ayelet Shaked (top-ranked woman is very likely to be Shaked)
5. top male candidate in primaries -- probably either Nissan Slomiansky or Eli Ben-Dahan?
6. another candidate of Bennett's choosing
7. whoever is next in the primaries -- either Slomiansky or Ben-Dahan, whoever's not in slot 5
8. second woman -- speculated to be Shuli Moalem
9. Zvulun Kalfa (2nd on Tkuma list is probably Kalfa)
10. member of JH's national committee -- probably party chairman Nir Orbach, but also running are Netanya chairman Daniel Bashari, along with lesser-known Amiad Taub and Hagit Moshe

[MalaspinaGold]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

Damn.  Any particular reason why the relationship between him and Gal-on was so bad?

By rumours, He thought she (meaning the party) didn't back him enough for the mayor run. And my assumption is she also feared he would try to run against her for leadership considering he's more popular with the general public

Do you think there will be a significant number of people who won't vote for a Meretz without Horowitz? And who do you think is most likely to replace him?

[danny]

Haaretz reports that Faina Kirschenbaum asked Lieberman not to seek reelection, but that Lieberman convinced her to seek another term on the Yisrael Beiteinu list. JPost reports that Netanyahu is looking for a woman to fill the 11th slot on the Likud list, and speculates that Miriam Feirberg, the mayor of Netanya, could be it. Arutz Sheva has a conspiracy theory-ish but interesting article out saying that prominent Netanyahu ally and Modi'in mayor Haim Bibas waged an undercover anti-Feiglin campaign that was responsible for his poor showing.

Jewish Home's primaries will be on the fourteenth, but Jewish Home is more obsessed with reserving spots than Likud, so large parts of the list are already apparent. Slot 1 is reserved for the leader -- Naftali Bennett. Slots 2, 9, 14, and 18 are reserved for members of Tkuma -- likely to be Uri Ariel, Zvulun Kalfa, Orit Strook, and someone new, in that order (though Strook could be bumped up for being a woman). Slots 4, 8, 12, and 17 are reserved for women, with 4 likely to go to MK Ayelet Shaked and 8 likely to go to MK Shuli Moalem. Slots 3, 6, and 11 are reserved for candidates of Bennett's choosing, with star candidate Yinon Magal having been promised one of these slots and likely to get the third. Lastly, 10 is reserved for a member of the Jewish Home's national committee, so it will certainly be someone new -- there are four candidates running for this slot. So, heavily speculative, this is what the top ten Jewish Home list looks like:

1. Naftali Bennet (leader)
2. Uri Ariel (leader of Tkuma)
3. Yinon Magal (or whoever Bennett picks; Yinon Magal has been promised a slot)
4. Ayelet Shaked (top-ranked woman is very likely to be Shaked)
5. top male candidate in primaries -- probably either Nissan Slomiansky or Eli Ben-Dahan?
6. another candidate of Bennett's choosing
7. whoever is next in the primaries -- either Slomiansky or Ben-Dahan, whoever's not in slot 5
8. second woman -- speculated to be Shuli Moalem
9. Zvulun Kalfa (2nd on Tkuma list is probably Kalfa)
10. member of JH's national committee -- probably party chairman Nir Orbach, but also running are Netanya chairman Daniel Bashari, along with lesser-known Amiad Taub and Hagit Moshe

I read the JH rules a bit differently.
1) The Tkuma members come separately, so the different reservations don't consider this and are then moved back, so the number 4 spot reserved for women will really be at number 5.
2) The chosen by the Bennet part only says that Bennet can put one person in every five spots by his choosing, but again this only for JH and not related to Tkuma, and doesn't limit the specific place beyond one in each five. Also, it is quite likely that Bennet doesn't use all of his theoretically available spots.