Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance.
How about polling? I haven't seen a legit poll that has Warner winning by less than 14.
I am basing my predictions on past performance by other statewide Democratic candidates -and his own. And because it's a midterm year in what is still a conservative state. If these poll results still hold true by the end of the month, I'll shift my predictions.
Until then, I guess I'll be the cautious one.
Voted for Obama twice, has two Democratic senators and elected a Democratic governor in an off-off-year election? Sounds like a real conservative bastion. /s