Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

The point of that statement was that Obama can't be losing 140k votes in that area alone. Hell the entire population of NE Philly is only 300k-450k depending on definition.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

The point of that statement was that Obama can't be losing 140k votes in that area alone. Hell the entire population of NE Philly is only 300k-450k depending on definition.

...

What brings up the random 140,000 votes?

Kerry's margin of victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if J. J. does what some of my co-workers do for logging cases, keep a list of commonly used phrases or case summaries on desktop and just copy and paste them in when necessary. He basically does the same thing with his posting (the 3:00 PM thing here, that "after you the deluge" thing, "Sweet Sarah Palin" a few months ago, the FL and MI spam back during the primaries, etc.) Of course my co-workers are just saving time while he's wasting since I doubt anyone takes it seriously.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if J. J. does what some of my co-workers do for logging cases, keep a list of commonly used phrases or case summaries on desktop and just copy and paste them in when necessary. He basically does the same thing with his posting (the 3:00 PM thing here, that "after you the deluge" thing, "Sweet Sarah Palin" a few months ago, the FL and MI spam back during the primaries, etc.) Of course my co-workers are just saving time while he's wasting since I doubt anyone takes it seriously.

No, the "Sweet Sarah Palin," BTW was not complementary.

I never said it was. In your typical fashion you completely ignored the point of my post by cherry-picking a minor sub-point.

Weren't you one of those numerous people talking about "landslide" territory and the "double" digit lead in PA? 

No, other than mentioning the simple fact that he did have a double digit lead a week or so ago. I never said it would be landslide (bank it, I'd bet anything I've never used that word in relation to Pennsylvania.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's some counter-anecdotal evidence.

The woman I just canvassed with has a son who lives in Pennsylvania in Bryn Athyn, basically a religious Swedenborgian community as her family is Swedenborgian, even though he like all of her kids is a Democrat. This place usually votes very Republican since they tend to be much more socially conservative than the Swedenborgians here. But he claims many of them are now leaning toward Obama and much more Democratic.

OMG ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I guess we know now once and for all the credibility of anecdotal evidence.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I guess we know now once and for all the credibility of anecdotal evidence.

Phil at the very beginning of the thread basically admitted that PA was lost and that McCain should invest elsewhere... anecdotal evidence is interesting, but I don't think Phil once claimed that PA would go for McCain based solely on anecdotal evidence.

He did prior to this thread. Until about the stock market crash he was arguing that his anecdotal evidence is what one should pay attention to and that Obama was only leading in polls because of the Bradley Effect or something like that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And I believe that most of those people would have backed McCain if it wasn't for the crash. I stand by that.

So did all of those life-long Democrats asking for McCain signs you kept talking about all just throw away their McCain signs when that happened?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think what sbane is basically talking about is Phil's constant insistence that the polls were wrong.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think what sbane is basically talking about is Phil's constant insistence that the polls were wrong.

He and Harry have a canny inability to ignore reality. At least Harry is nice about it.

Along with WalterMitty and J. J. (well not quite, he just creates his own reality where a candidate raising $150 million is not good.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think what sbane is basically talking about is Phil's constant insistence that the polls were wrong.

And we'll never know if they were right or wrong at that time. Polling isn't fact. Get over it.

So basically are you saying that you believe there was a Bradley Effect at one point strong enough to flip the state from what polls were saying but then the stock market completely wiped it out? I thought you admitted the Bradley Effect was complete garbage and nonexistant.