Will Trump be jailed in NY for violating his gag order?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

He'd have a very difficult time getting to any of those countries, unless he managed to get an unauthorized ship to Mexico that wasn't intercepted by the Coast Guard.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

He'd have a very difficult time getting to any of those countries unless he managed to get an unauthorized ship to Mexico that wasn't intercepted by the Coast Guard.

He just gets on someone's private jet. Or goes to a consulate. But that(and AMLO repeatedly attacking the prosecution process) is why I think Mexico is an underrated possibility.

It also depends on how much Biden would want to stop him. Like I know there is the "procedure" and all, but that NSC Principals meeting would be tense when they decide whether they want to let him escape or take the hot potato of jailing him.

Consulate should just mean another Julian Assange-type situation and Trump would be effectively trapped there unless the host country got sick of him and decided to expel him.

Private jet is possible but tricky considering that he's far more well known than most people trying to leave any country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's another logistics issue with Trump fleeing: The Secret Service. They don't work "for Trump", and would be obligated to report any attempts by Trump to flee.

Sure a former President can waive SS protection, as Nixon did, but I imagine the process is a bit more complex than Trump just telling his SS detail to go home. And if Trump did try to weasel out of having SS detail that would set off alarms and I have little doubt there'd be other law enforcement surveillance of him.