Will Trump be jailed in NY for violating his gag order?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The prosecution has argued that Judge Merchan should fined Trump $1000 each for 3 social media posts that violate his gag order, and should warn Trump that further violations will result in jail time:

https://twitter.com/lawofruby/status/1779908575545950659

NEW: Manhattan DA’s office asks court to impose a $1k sanction for each of 3 prior posts, order him to take them down, and warn him that further violations will result in jail time. DA notes a 9:12 am post today, potentially made inside the courthouse, also violates the order.

Now, the question is what happens next?

I think it will be impossible for Trump to restrain himself from continuing to violate the gag order. The prosecution will make another motion that Trump has violated the gag order again. Then, as a consequence, Judge Merchan will order Trump be jailed, and he will be heading to the big house over on Rikers.

[Redban]

That tweet says the DA asked for the fine. Did Merchan actualy impose it?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That tweet says the DA asked for the fine. Did Merchan actualy impose it?

I thought he did, but you are right, I misread the tweet. I will check if it says more clearly elsewhere.

-edit- CNN says:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-hush-money-trial-04-15-24/index.html

"The judge is yet to rule on the matter."

[dead0man]

idk, but it would be hilarious if he was

[emailking]

I think we'd need several more days of the same behavior with ratcheting of fines, and several stern warnings before jail would actually happen. My bet is he won't go to jail over the gag order in this case (or if convicted).

[President Johnson]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even of he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be approriate.

[mjba257]

Not unless Secret Service agrees to go with him. He wouldn't survive an hour at Rikers. And that's not figurative. The risk to his safety his unfathomable.

This has never been about jailing him. It's always been about damaging him politically and financially. And a more sinister theory is prosecutors are trying to cause a heart attack due to all the stress. Any lawyer will tell you the physical and mental toll a prosecution can have on a defendant is overwhelming. Trump is almost 77, overweight, and has a history of heart problems. Not inconceivable the stress will take a tremendous toll on him. And judging by the pictures I've seen of him, it already is.   

[President Johnson]

Not unless Secret Service agrees to go with him. He wouldn't survive an hour at Rikers. And that's not figurative. The risk to his safety his unfathomable.

This has never been about jailing him. It's always been about damaging him politically and financially. And a more sinister theory is prosecutors are trying to cause a heart attack due to all the stress. Any lawyer will tell you the physical and mental toll a prosecution can have on a defendant is overwhelming. Trump is almost 77, overweight, and has a history of heart problems. Not inconceivable the stress will take a tremendous toll on him. And judging by the pictures I've seen of him, it already is.   

So he's not fit the be president then, either?

[mjba257]

Not unless Secret Service agrees to go with him. He wouldn't survive an hour at Rikers. And that's not figurative. The risk to his safety his unfathomable.

This has never been about jailing him. It's always been about damaging him politically and financially. And a more sinister theory is prosecutors are trying to cause a heart attack due to all the stress. Any lawyer will tell you the physical and mental toll a prosecution can have on a defendant is overwhelming. Trump is almost 77, overweight, and has a history of heart problems. Not inconceivable the stress will take a tremendous toll on him. And judging by the pictures I've seen of him, it already is.   

So he's not fit the be president then, either?

Do I look like a trump supporter?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even of he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be approriate.

Not on this one - it would be very disproportionate given NY's justice system - but the others seem like the type of crimes where jail time is basically inevitable.

If it gets to that, I kind of think he still won't see the inside of a cell for other reasons.

[Dan the Roman]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

He'd have a very difficult time getting to any of those countries, unless he managed to get an unauthorized ship to Mexico that wasn't intercepted by the Coast Guard.

[Dan the Roman]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

He'd have a very difficult time getting to any of those countries unless he managed to get an unauthorized ship to Mexico that wasn't intercepted by the Coast Guard.

He just gets on someone's private jet. Or goes to a consulate. But that(and AMLO repeatedly attacking the prosecution process) is why I think Mexico is an underrated possibility.

It also depends on how much Biden would want to stop him. Like I know there is the "procedure" and all, but that NSC Principals meeting would be tense when they decide whether they want to let him escape or take the hot potato of jailing him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

He'd have a very difficult time getting to any of those countries unless he managed to get an unauthorized ship to Mexico that wasn't intercepted by the Coast Guard.

He just gets on someone's private jet. Or goes to a consulate. But that(and AMLO repeatedly attacking the prosecution process) is why I think Mexico is an underrated possibility.

It also depends on how much Biden would want to stop him. Like I know there is the "procedure" and all, but that NSC Principals meeting would be tense when they decide whether they want to let him escape or take the hot potato of jailing him.

Consulate should just mean another Julian Assange-type situation and Trump would be effectively trapped there unless the host country got sick of him and decided to expel him.

Private jet is possible but tricky considering that he's far more well known than most people trying to leave any country.

[emailking]

Not unless Secret Service agrees to go with him. He wouldn't survive an hour at Rikers. And that's not figurative. The risk to his safety his unfathomable.

This has never been about jailing him. It's always been about damaging him politically and financially. And a more sinister theory is prosecutors are trying to cause a heart attack due to all the stress. Any lawyer will tell you the physical and mental toll a prosecution can have on a defendant is overwhelming. Trump is almost 77, overweight, and has a history of heart problems. Not inconceivable the stress will take a tremendous toll on him. And judging by the pictures I've seen of him, it already is.   

So he's not fit the be president then, either?

Do I look like a trump supporter?

Yes.

[mjba257]

Not unless Secret Service agrees to go with him. He wouldn't survive an hour at Rikers. And that's not figurative. The risk to his safety his unfathomable.

This has never been about jailing him. It's always been about damaging him politically and financially. And a more sinister theory is prosecutors are trying to cause a heart attack due to all the stress. Any lawyer will tell you the physical and mental toll a prosecution can have on a defendant is overwhelming. Trump is almost 77, overweight, and has a history of heart problems. Not inconceivable the stress will take a tremendous toll on him. And judging by the pictures I've seen of him, it already is.   

So he's not fit the be president then, either?

Do I look like a trump supporter?

Yes.

I ing hate the guy. He's a bloviating, obnoxious, demagogue who has caused a permanent rift in American society. I've said that the day he dies will be a great day for America. At the same time, I don't want the law being weaponized against him. It sets a dangerous precedent. If you dug through the personal lives of almost anyone in public life, you'd probably find something that you could pin them on. It's called the "5 felonies a day" or something along the lines. Almost all of us have done something, even if minor, could be turned against us.

[emailking]

Maybe, but even if there's truth to that, the penalties would be proportionate to the crime. He's not going to be going to jail for this, for example.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Not unless Secret Service agrees to go with him. He wouldn't survive an hour at Rikers. And that's not figurative. The risk to his safety his unfathomable.

This has never been about jailing him. It's always been about damaging him politically and financially. And a more sinister theory is prosecutors are trying to cause a heart attack due to all the stress. Any lawyer will tell you the physical and mental toll a prosecution can have on a defendant is overwhelming. Trump is almost 77, overweight, and has a history of heart problems. Not inconceivable the stress will take a tremendous toll on him. And judging by the pictures I've seen of him, it already is.   

So he's not fit the be president then, either?

Do I look like a trump supporter?

Yes.

I ing hate the guy. He's a bloviating, obnoxious, demagogue who has caused a permanent rift in American society. I've said that the day he dies will be a great day for America. At the same time, I don't want the law being weaponized against him. It sets a dangerous precedent. If you dug through the personal lives of almost anyone in public life, you'd probably find something that you could pin them on. It's called the "5 felonies a day" or something along the lines. Almost all of us have done something, even if minor, could be turned against us.

Lmao, there's no way you or anybody else believes this. Do you even know what he's accused of? Most of us go our whole lives without committing investment fraud, bribing porn stars to keep their mouth shut and funding "catch and kill" story suppression, inciting violence to challenge election legitimacy, hiding classified documents at our houses, and trying to induce a sitting governor to commit electoral fraud.
How anyone could still defend this guy in good faith is beyond me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. He'll get out if it somehow like the slippery cockroach he is.

[mjba257]

Not unless Secret Service agrees to go with him. He wouldn't survive an hour at Rikers. And that's not figurative. The risk to his safety his unfathomable.

This has never been about jailing him. It's always been about damaging him politically and financially. And a more sinister theory is prosecutors are trying to cause a heart attack due to all the stress. Any lawyer will tell you the physical and mental toll a prosecution can have on a defendant is overwhelming. Trump is almost 77, overweight, and has a history of heart problems. Not inconceivable the stress will take a tremendous toll on him. And judging by the pictures I've seen of him, it already is.   

So he's not fit the be president then, either?

Do I look like a trump supporter?

Yes.

I ing hate the guy. He's a bloviating, obnoxious, demagogue who has caused a permanent rift in American society. I've said that the day he dies will be a great day for America. At the same time, I don't want the law being weaponized against him. It sets a dangerous precedent. If you dug through the personal lives of almost anyone in public life, you'd probably find something that you could pin them on. It's called the "5 felonies a day" or something along the lines. Almost all of us have done something, even if minor, could be turned against us.

Lmao, there's no way you or anybody else believes this. Do you even know what he's accused of? Most of us go our whole lives without committing investment fraud, bribing porn stars to keep their mouth shut and funding "catch and kill" story suppression, inciting violence to challenge election legitimacy, hiding classified documents at our houses, and trying to induce a sitting governor to commit electoral fraud.
How anyone could still defend this guy in good faith is beyond me.

Have you jaywalked before? Ran a red light? Didn't cross your Ts and dot your I's on your taxes? Or howabout entered a restricted area without permission? I used to do a lot of urban exploring so I know I'm guilty of that. Or perhaps you forgot about a payment and it's still outstanding. Or maybe you smoked pot in a state it was illegal at the time? I could go on and on all day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's another logistics issue with Trump fleeing: The Secret Service. They don't work "for Trump", and would be obligated to report any attempts by Trump to flee.

Sure a former President can waive SS protection, as Nixon did, but I imagine the process is a bit more complex than Trump just telling his SS detail to go home. And if Trump did try to weasel out of having SS detail that would set off alarms and I have little doubt there'd be other law enforcement surveillance of him.

[Dan the Roman]

Here's another logistics issue with Trump fleeing: The Secret Service. They don't work "for Trump", and would be obligated to report any attempts by Trump to flee.

Sure a former President can waive SS protection, as Nixon did, but I imagine the process is a bit more complex than Trump just telling his SS detail to go home. And if Trump did try to weasel out of having SS detail that would set off alarms and I have little doubt there'd be other law enforcement surveillance of him.

He probably only flees if people decide they want to let him. But if, say, NYS orders him to report for imprisonment during the Campaign and he announces a tour of Europe, the Middle East or South America at the invitation of local governments? Does Biden block him from going?

You are correct however. The Secret Service aspect means this is unique because there will come a point where Biden and his team will have to make a policy decision about how they want this to go. At the very least because no one lower is going to want to take the fall for it in the event things go badly.

I mean that's all out the window if you think Trump would voluntarily serve time but nothing in his history makes it likely he would chose that path over maximizing the damage inflicted on Biden and the country. At the very least I am certain he will try and screw over DeSantis by forcing him to either block the arrest or take the fall for failing to do so.

Trump under house arrest in Palm Beach is the best option for most actors, but it requires a lot of people, including Trump to play along.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Even if Trump is found guilty of a crime, I doubt he'll ever be sent to prison. At worst I assume that he'd be given house arrest.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Posts below separated for clarity (and hilarity):

Do I look like a trump supporter?

Yes.

Lmao, there's no way you or anybody else believes this. Do you even know what he's accused of? Most of us go our whole lives without committing investment fraud, bribing porn stars to keep their mouth shut and funding "catch and kill" story suppression, inciting violence to challenge election legitimacy, hiding classified documents at our houses, and trying to induce a sitting governor to commit electoral fraud.
How anyone could still defend this guy in good faith is beyond me.

Have you jaywalked before? Ran a red light? Didn't cross your Ts and dot your I's on your taxes? Or howabout entered a restricted area without permission? I used to do a lot of urban exploring so I know I'm guilty of that. Or perhaps you forgot about a payment and it's still outstanding. Or maybe you smoked pot in a state it was illegal at the time? I could go on and on all day.

Roflmao. Great act you've got there.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Search Your Feelings Luke.

You Know Them To Be True

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2h0nYRLWJn/