PA-08 2008 matchup

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Murphy/Murphy

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

And Phil, no offense but you sound like Naso with your view that everything is going to be going just perfectly fine in Iraq in 2008.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

Token environmental support? Fitz has been a champion for open space and was endorsed by the Sierra Club.

And Nancy Johnson was endorsed by NARAL, but hell would freeze over before she'd get any vote of mine.

I never said that it will all be perfectly fine. I said I don't think it will be as big of an issue. You shouldn't expect it to get as much attention and bring more support your way when we are two years away.

How is Iraq going to fade as an issue if things keep going as bad as they are now? It's not like Bush is trying to drop involvement there. People aren't going to forget it all of a sudden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

And I never really saw him as too in touch with the district on the issues at all, as this ad shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7saDfx43E

He's not Tom Coburn but he's definitely not Jim Greenwood either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

And I never really saw him as too in touch with the district on the issues at all, as this ad shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7saDfx43E

He's not Tom Coburn but he's definitely not Jim Greenwood either.

That was actually a pretty lame ad.  Do they think PA08 is some rural district? The point about Social Security is BS, the stem cell research issue is because Fitz is pro-life and the tax breaks point is actually beneficial for economic growth. The only position that's "out of touch" is his Iraq position.

Uh, the ad wasn't saying the district was rural. It was just an analogy.

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Wow, that's quite some obsession you have there, BRTD.

For what? During the election I liked to see how things were going around the country so I watched a lot of political ads outside my state on YouTube. So what? No different from poll watching.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh yeah, these are the median household incomes in the two key cities in PA-15:

Bethlehem: $35,815
Allentown: $32,016

Neither one looks very affluent or professional. Allentown is even poorer than Mankato.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do they think PA08 is some rural district?

PA 8 does have a good amount of farming areas.

Overall, it's probably not the best ad for this district.

Why? Fitzpatrick's positions on Social Security and stem cell research are hardly in touch with the district and regardless of the case, "tax breaks for special interests" never sounds good.

I think it was a great ad and it clearly worked.

Here's an ad from AZ-05 that should've been run against someone like Gerlach:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNCWlbTE1AI

Gerlach's nowhere near as tainted and corrupt as Hayworth, so no.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Would it be fair to say Murphy wouldn't have won without the 7th's sliver of Mont. Co? If so, could Lois Murphy have won if that parcel of land had been in the 6th?

It gave him a roughly 1500 vote margin which wouldn't have made a difference in PA-06.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

County vote totals:

Bucks
Fitzpatrick 116,838
Murphy 115,802

Montgomery
Murphy 3,967
Fitzpatrick 2,403

Philadelphia
Murphy 5,898
Fitzpatrick 4,905

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm just giving the numbers for the little exchange between you and MarkWarner08 (who btw should get a new name). That's all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These are the official final results on the Pennsylvania Elections Division site (the above numbers are from CNN)

MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   125,656   50.3%
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   124,138   49.7%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And these are the county numbers on the official site:

Bucks
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   116,669   50.2%
MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   115,645   49.8%

Montgomery
MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   3,987   62.2%
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   2,421   37.8%

Philadelphia
MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   6,024   54.4%
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   5,048   45.6%

Looks like Fitzpatrick would've won a VERY VERY narrow race without the MontCo part, the closest in the country.