PA-08 2008 matchup

[Keystone Phil]

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

That might be true. It depends on the nature of the district. I know PA 8 isn't ingerently a Dem district because while Kerry and other Dems have won there, the GOP still has a good lead in registration.

[MarkWarner08]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

And I never really saw him as too in touch with the district on the issues at all, as this ad shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7saDfx43E

He's not Tom Coburn but he's definitely not Jim Greenwood either.

That was actually a pretty lame ad.  Do they think PA08 is some rural district? The point about Social Security is BS, the stem cell research issue is because Fitz is pro-life and the tax breaks point is actually beneficial for economic growth. The only position that's "out of touch" is his Iraq position.

[bullmoose88]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

And I never really saw him as too in touch with the district on the issues at all, as this ad shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7saDfx43E

He's not Tom Coburn but he's definitely not Jim Greenwood either.

Fitzpatrick is a native of densely populated (and now more democratic lower bucks)...he was a county commissioner [one of the three people who ran the county] for about a decade prior to taking the seat when Greenwood suddenly quit.

Pretty well known before he took the seat and had accomplished quite a bit prior to going to congress [open space stuff etc].

[Keystone Phil]

It was actually about 1700 votes.  I think any decent Democrat(not Schrader) would have beat Fitzpatrick in that district.  The district has changed.

No, it actually wasn't. I have spoken to people that know. After provisionals and absentees were counted, it was about 900 votes.

The district has changed? Check the registrations.

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

See, this is where it helps to know about the area like we do. Fitz was the most popular Bucks county commissioner (top vote getter) in the history of the county. People know and like Fitz.

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Wow, that's quite some obsession you have there, BRTD.

[Keystone Phil]

Do they think PA08 is some rural district?

PA 8 does have a good amount of farming areas.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

That might be true. It depends on the nature of the district. I know PA 8 isn't ingerently a Dem district because while Kerry and other Dems have won there, the GOP still has a good lead in registration.

A lot of these people that are still registered as Republicans here are liberal Lincoln Chafee style Republicans, just like most of the Democrats registered in Oklahoma and Kentucky are very Conservative Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

And I never really saw him as too in touch with the district on the issues at all, as this ad shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7saDfx43E

He's not Tom Coburn but he's definitely not Jim Greenwood either.

That was actually a pretty lame ad.  Do they think PA08 is some rural district? The point about Social Security is BS, the stem cell research issue is because Fitz is pro-life and the tax breaks point is actually beneficial for economic growth. The only position that's "out of touch" is his Iraq position.

Uh, the ad wasn't saying the district was rural. It was just an analogy.

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Wow, that's quite some obsession you have there, BRTD.

For what? During the election I liked to see how things were going around the country so I watched a lot of political ads outside my state on YouTube. So what? No different from poll watching.

[MarkWarner08]

Do they think PA08 is some rural district?

PA 8 does have a good amount of farming areas.

Overall, it's probably not the best ad for this district.

Here's an ad from AZ-05 that should've been run against someone like Gerlach:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNCWlbTE1AI

[bullmoose88]

Unless you're in extreme lower bucks...there are significant farming areas in Bucks county, especially the further north one goes. The sprawl pattern seems to be a bit different than in Montgomery or Delaware counties (Open space laws seem to be partly [can't say how much] responsible).

[MarkWarner08]

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

That might be true. It depends on the nature of the district. I know PA 8 isn't ingerently a Dem district because while Kerry and other Dems have won there, the GOP still has a good lead in registration.

A lot of these people that are still registered as Republicans here are liberal Lincoln Chafee style Republicans, just like most of the Democrats registered in Oklahoma and Kentucky are very Conservative Democrats.

Phil, are the PA-08 Republicans more liberal than PA-06 GOPers? I've gotten a sense from my reading on the districts that PA-06 Republican voters are less wiling to vote for a Democrat than their counterparts in the 8th.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh yeah, these are the median household incomes in the two key cities in PA-15:

Bethlehem: $35,815
Allentown: $32,016

Neither one looks very affluent or professional. Allentown is even poorer than Mankato.

[MarkWarner08]

Would it be fair to say Murphy wouldn't have won without the 7th's sliver of Mont. Co? If so, could Lois Murphy have won if that parcel of land had been in the 6th?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do they think PA08 is some rural district?

PA 8 does have a good amount of farming areas.

Overall, it's probably not the best ad for this district.

Why? Fitzpatrick's positions on Social Security and stem cell research are hardly in touch with the district and regardless of the case, "tax breaks for special interests" never sounds good.

I think it was a great ad and it clearly worked.

Here's an ad from AZ-05 that should've been run against someone like Gerlach:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNCWlbTE1AI

Gerlach's nowhere near as tainted and corrupt as Hayworth, so no.

[bullmoose88]

Oh yeah, these are the median household incomes in the two key cities in PA-15:

Bethlehem: $35,815
Allentown: $32,016

Neither one looks very affluent or professional. Allentown is even poorer than Mankato.

I went to college in PA 15.

The cities, if one can call them that, of allentown and bethelhem aren't very large or affluent...Bethelhem has the additional issue of having Lehigh University, which may skew income numbers down since most college kids don't have much income. The suburban areas outside those towns are larger and are increasingly more affluent, though not nearly as affluent as suburban areas in PA 8, 13, 7.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Would it be fair to say Murphy wouldn't have won without the 7th's sliver of Mont. Co? If so, could Lois Murphy have won if that parcel of land had been in the 6th?

It gave him a roughly 1500 vote margin which wouldn't have made a difference in PA-06.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

That might be true. It depends on the nature of the district. I know PA 8 isn't ingerently a Dem district because while Kerry and other Dems have won there, the GOP still has a good lead in registration.

A lot of these people that are still registered as Republicans here are liberal Lincoln Chafee style Republicans, just like most of the Democrats registered in Oklahoma and Kentucky are very Conservative Democrats.

That's great. A lot of those RINOs stick with the GOP when it comes to state and local races. PA 8 is certainly not inherently Dem.

For what? During the election I liked to see how things were going around the country so I watched a lot of political ads outside my state on YouTube. So what? No different from poll watching.

My apologies. I thought it was that other ad.

Unless you're in extreme lower bucks...there are significant farming areas in Bucks county, especially the further north one goes. The sprawl pattern seems to be a bit different than in Montgomery or Delaware counties (Open space laws seem to be partly [can't say how much] responsible).

Yeah, PA 8 has everything - suburbs, rural and urban areas.

Oh yeah, these are the median household incomes in the two key cities in PA-15:

Bethlehem: $35,815
Allentown: $32,016

Neither one looks very affluent or professional. Allentown is even poorer than Mankato.

That's looking at only two cities, BRTD. Allentown isn't the area expanding. Do me a favor and do your homework for the surrounding, expanding communities instead of closing yourself off to whatever you don't want to hear.

Phil, are the PA-08 Republicans more liberal than PA-06 GOPers? I've gotten a sense from my reading on the districts that PA-06 Republican voters are less wiling to vote for a Democrat than their counterparts in the 8th.

PA 6 is home to the Main Line - a base for socially liberal Republicans. There are, however, rural and suburban areas of the 6th that stick with conservative roots which is similar to PA 8. It's hard to say which is home to more liberal Republicans.

Would it be fair to say Murphy wouldn't have won without the 7th's sliver of Mont. Co? If so, could Lois Murphy have won if that parcel of land had been in the 6th?

I'm not familiar with the area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

County vote totals:

Bucks
Fitzpatrick 116,838
Murphy 115,802

Montgomery
Murphy 3,967
Fitzpatrick 2,403

Philadelphia
Murphy 5,898
Fitzpatrick 4,905

[Keystone Phil]

County vote totals:

Bucks
Fitzpatrick 116,838
Murphy 115,802

Montgomery
Murphy 3,967
Fitzpatrick 2,403

Philadelphia
Murphy 5,898
Fitzpatrick 4,905

Point?

You can go right ahead and dispute what I said about Murphy winning by only 900 votes but I'm telling you that I heard it from a very, very credibly source after the provisionals, absentees, etc. were counted.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm just giving the numbers for the little exchange between you and MarkWarner08 (who btw should get a new name). That's all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These are the official final results on the Pennsylvania Elections Division site (the above numbers are from CNN)

MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   125,656   50.3%
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   124,138   49.7%

[MarkWarner08]

I'm just giving the numbers for the little exchange between you and MarkWarner08 (who btw should get a new name). That's all.

If Mark Warner runs for the Senate in a year...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And these are the county numbers on the official site:

Bucks
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   116,669   50.2%
MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   115,645   49.8%

Montgomery
MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   3,987   62.2%
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   2,421   37.8%

Philadelphia
MURPHY, PATRICK J. (DEM)   6,024   54.4%
FITZPATRICK, MICHAEL G. (REP)   5,048   45.6%

Looks like Fitzpatrick would've won a VERY VERY narrow race without the MontCo part, the closest in the country.