Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

State Rep. Savannah Maddox is running.

Does she have a chance?

No, she's absolutely bonkers.

She also already dropped out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pretty remarkable that Kelly Craft is polling so poorly given that she's had the airwaves to herself and has been blanketing the state with positive spots.

considering her "positive spots" center around building a wall along the southern border to keep the tennesseeans out, i think i understand why she's not winning over many voters:

Holy sh!t is that a laughably bad ad! Secure the state border? And that little "threat" to drug dealers at the end...LMAO.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1618598932602580994

This is about where he needs to be at this point to have a real shot at pulling off a very narrow victory in November.  Starts at Tilt D, but far closer to Tilt R than Lean D.  

Nah I'm going to put it at Lean D and it moves to Likely D if the GOP can't close the gap by the summer.

Governors with Beshear's approval ratings basically never lose. And Laura Kelly for instance had nowhere near his ratings although they were still pretty good.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kentucky already rarely uses cash bail. It's one of the least using bail states along with Oregon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.

Wait, I thought Yik Yak was dead a couple years ago?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.

Wait, I thought Yik Yak was dead a couple years ago?

nah, it's huge and alive and well at my school still

Like literally dead, shut down by the developer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Apparently E day voting in Kentucky is “off the charts” according to predicit peoples. Can someone confirm or deny

Not a valid source.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

I think the answer might actually just be that Cameron is perceived as so close to Mitch McConnell who basically everyone hates. They might vote for him out of sheer partisanship, but getting a McConnell protege into the governor's mansion in an odd year election against a Governor that most people probably think is at least "OK" isn't a big priority.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I’m honestly very surprised by the late dooming here. Cameron is a very weak candidate and Beshear is relatively popular. I expect him to win by no less than 5%.

Beshear is popular and I still think he’ll win, but what makes Cameron “very weak”? He seems like a fairly generic R, all things considered.

As I noted above he's so heavily connected to McConnell who is a very unpopular and toxic figure, even if he's able to get reelected via sheer partisanship.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reminder once we do start getting drops from Louisville, Lexington and the Cincinnati suburbs that unless we know exactly what precincts they're from they're not usable for comparisons to 2019 at least until we get like 70% in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A certain poster who thought Cameron would win by 5 is suspiciously missing. I wonder why...

LOL clowned as badly as you were four years ago, right?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

KY-GOV: Beshar (D)+4
MS-GOV: Reeves (R)+7
PA Supreme Court: McCaffrey (D)+6
Ohio abortion: Yes+10
Ohio marijuana: Yes+15
Virginia House: 52 D / 48 R (net D+4)
Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)
New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)
New Jersey Senate: 24 D / 16 R (R+1/no change from last election)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will be interesting to see what moves Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman makes in the next few years since she is the most apparent successor to Beshear. KY Dems starting off a little better than LA Dems did when JBE was termed out and had no apparent successor.

Whoa, she's hot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn’t alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. I told him early that’s a big burden to overcome. McConnell and Romney are Kryptonite for Republican Candidates. I moved him up 25 Points, but the McConnell relationship was “too much to bear.” Tate Reeves, on the other hand, surged to a win for Governor in Mississippi after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate!

^ Trump

Absolutely COPE from Trump here. This doesn't even make any sense, as Mitch McConnell himself easily wins Kentucky every time he's up for re-election.

Eh, that's just because he's a Republican running for Senate in Kentucky, which guarantees victory based on partisanship alone. Also traditionally it hasn't been "easily". He won by only about 6 points in 2008 despite McCain winning the state by 16.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With that being said LOL@Trump trying to spin a Republican winning by less than 5 points in Mississippi as some sort of big victory.