2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol
I can see why they would think trump will win FL but the Numbers coming out of AZ dont seem good for Trump or the the GOP at all....

PredictIt is full of Trump cultists (just read the comments, ugh), which is hardly a bad thing, it means we can take their money. A lot of people there also seem to unironically believe that "Democrats hate to nominate white males" talking point which made for good earnings during the primary, and amongst certain races in 2018. It's amazing people not only believe that but are willing to bet money based on it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like the days of Florida beating Texas in total vote count are over

Aren't there 7 million more people in Texas? jeez what's the turnout in elections there? 40%?

A significant chunk of those in Texas are undocumented and the Rio Grande Valley has always had atrocious turnout. Texas would basically be a Safe D state now with its demographics if it had normal turnout, it's one of only three majority non-white states (along with California and Hawaii.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321889961587560448?s=20

LOL mad people were bedwetting over this guy yesterday.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

This is a very good start.  Next step is to lock up DeJoy. 

Some state Attorney General needs to prepare charges against him in case Trump pardons him in the lame duck.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trust the Montana Democratic Party. They know what they're doing.

It'll suck though if the GOP gets a trifecta in the state and can roll back Montana's labor laws, some of the most progressive in the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What I am optimistic about in Florida, if you look into the numbers, more independents voted by mail rather than voted early in person.  This tells me that on balance they were worried about coronavirus, which tells me they are probably leaning Biden by a fair amount. 

Right now Trump probably still needs excellent turnout on Election Day and I'm not sure it's there for him.  They reported that at the Florida rally tonight Trump asked people if they had already voted and almost everyone in the crowd raised their hand.  There is a very real possibility that Democrats keep pace with Republicans in Florida when all is said and done and then it comes down to Independents.  I'd rather be Biden in that scenario.

Trump's rally in Florida tonight hadn't even occurred when you posted

He posted that literally 16 minutes before your post.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota's final early vote count is in: www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/absentee-data

1,716,575 votes or 57.8% of 2016. Hennepin County is above 71% and Ramsey County above 65% of 2016 turnout.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OML xD

You guys do realize that's a fake account, right?

How'd he get the blue check mark?  doesn't that mean it's verified?

Verified for the guy (@ira) who just changed his display name to Beto O'Rourke.

And is now suspended. Presumably for impersonating a public figure?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OML xD

You guys do realize that's a fake account, right?

How'd he get the blue check mark?  doesn't that mean it's verified?

Verified for the guy (@ira) who just changed his display name to Beto O'Rourke.

And is now suspended. Presumably for impersonating a public figure?

Amazing that he got to almost 200k followers before getting suspended.

Well how many followers did Milo Yiannopoulos have?