When will Santorum be ahead in the polls?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just a question to those predicting a Santorum victory.

When do you think Santorum will take the lead in the polls?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let's just say he wins, BRTD. Do you think you'll be able to fit your foot in your big mouth? I really warn you not to get too cocky about these races.

Couldn't the same be said to those who are "100% sure" he will win?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tweed said it, although I think his wording was "100% certain"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The race is within the MOE by September 22

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

After constantly hearing about how Santorum is the god of campaigning and how Casey's lead would completely disintegrate and all that, one can get a little annoyed. So this is basically my venting over all that. Republicans keep making predictions that one day Santorum would make his comeback, and they never come true. Face reality or face gloating.

After what I've been through, it is completely justified

So you think I'm justified in gloating about Minnesota?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A few points Phil:

-I remember in a thread about Washington in 2004 AuH2O commented that he would bring this back "when Bush wins Washington." Obviously he didn't so AuH2O looked like the fool, but clearly Republicans play this sort of thing too.

-I'm not the only one mocking AuH2O over his ridiculous predictions (see Tweed's sig). The reason he's getting so much crap is because he has such an "I'm right, you're wrong" attitude, a giant ego, and extreme partisanship (has he ever made a prediction that was more Democratic tan average?) So it's hardly surprising he'll get the riduclous hackish nonsense he's said like that Harris is a strong candidate or Kennedy is heavily favored to win rubbed in his face.

-In the case of Santorum, it really isn't so much people mocking that he's down so much, but rather the kool-aid drinking of his supporters. I don't make fun of DeWine being down because no one's convinced that he's going to win no matter what, but when people keep saying Santorum is going to pull this off being down double digits and in some cases actually mocking people predicting a Casey victory saying such an idea is idiotic (WalterMitty did this many times), then you're asking for it. I wouldn't make fun of people saying things like "I love Santorum but he's probably done." The point is to just face reality.

-If Pawlenty held a consistent double digit lead and Hatch never led in a single poll, and I kept insisting that Hatch was going to make a comeback and he would win for months, and he never made any permanent ground in the polls, do you really think no one would bring up my old comments?

-Considering this was a prediction thread, I don't see the wrong in bringing it back to check the accuracy of those predictions.

-No, Klobuchar was never down in the polls, but that just proves my point more actually. When people were saying Kennedy was strong and Klobuchar was crap back when she was leading and I kept saying Kennedy would never catch on in Minnesota and people were saying things like "But Bush got 47% in Minnesota!" (never mind that he's way more unpopular now then he was then), don't you think that maybe I knew a bit more about my state then people gave me credit for?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't mock him or say "haha". I only quoted his post. And I actually thought he said October 22, which is why I did it then, if I remembered that it was September, I would've bumped it a month ago.

The point though, was not to make fun of any innacurrate predictions, but rather prove a point, that the predictions of those predicting a Santorum victory did not come true. I asked for dates of when Santorum would come back, and I got some. Santorum did not come back. So why should I take any predictions now of a Santorum comeback seriously?

In all fairness though, J.J. has now admitted that Santorum will likely lose.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know, BRTD, that is Santorum does comeback, you should never show your face here ever again. You have had more fun with laughing about his chances than anyone else on the forum. Not even Flyers has acted like you have. In fact, he has been civil about this race and I greatly appreciate that.

I don't think the most unpopular Senator in America is going to make a comeback.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You did predict a Santorum before:

Yes, Casey will win as long as he doesn't rest on his laurels, especially now that Santorum seems to be gaining momentum

I actually think Casey is more in tune with PA as a whole, economically and socially, which is why he'll pull it off. Santorum would see off a stock liberal without too much difficulty

Dave

Casey has no laurels to rest on.

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Santorum may not be the best campaigner since Truman, but he is an excellent campaigner.

Casey, on the other hand, main campaign is "I'm Bob Casey's son."  That won't be enough.  Santorum in a squeaker.