PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ElectionsGuy]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because according to the Atlas hive mind anybody who is a "Trumpist" is a bad candidate who cannot do better than Trump himself.

[ElectionsGuy]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

[ElectionsGuy]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

"Gaslighting is when someone disagrees with me"

Let's see: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=354485.0

Am I wrong, or do you just don't like that I'm disputing this attempt to rewrite this forum's awful track record?

Parnell lost by 2 in a district that is now more left-leaning than the state as a whole. It would literally just take a shift of 1-2 points in the national environment, or a 1-2 point R trend for Pennsylvania specifically, for Parnell to win a statewide race. It is completely ridiculous to say he doesn't "have a prayer" because of... once again, this completely wishful idea that Republican voters only turnout for Trump, or that the district is easier for Parnell to win in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

And what though? This was also a district that Trump won in 2016, and Biden only won by 3. It's clear Trump brought out his folks, and those folks also helped Parnell get so close.

You spent months before the 2020 election talking about how Trump was going to be defeated in a landslide, and how he wouldn't gin up enthusiasm on the Republican side, which is the exact opposite premise of what you're now relying on to make your point.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hasan Piker is a provocative clown, much like his uncle, who has the electoral politics intelligence of Kyle Kulinski.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hasan Piker is a provocative clown, much like his uncle, who has the electoral politics intelligence of Kyle Kulinski.

Don't disrespect Kyle like that lol. Has anyone is an idiot, Kyle is based.

Kyle's more agreeable and more pleasant than many of the other leftist Youtubers out there but when it comes to election analysis, he's delusional. He thinks Bernie would be able to win 400+ EVs because of working class populism.

[ElectionsGuy]

If he does, it makes it very likely he'll be the nominee, given the lackluster field.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

What I don't get about some of the Trump enthusiasts' criticism of Oz is that almost all of them can be applied to Trump in 2015, but they literally just didn't care back then. Now they want a purist with a squeeky clean history lol. I think you're right in that Trump is not likely to care too much about policy purity and will go for someone who's both likely to win and has his populist style, so most likely Oz.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

People who think he's far-right should see the online Nat-cons reaction to Trump's endorsement. They're not happy and calling Oz a RINO. Even though Trump had so many flip flops and past statements that could be considered "liberal" too. Ted Cruz tried to take advantage of that stuff and it completely failed. I expect Dave McCormick to try and fail in a similar way even though he arguably has even more past baggage.

Oz will likely be both the GOP candidate and the next Senator. All the takes about "bad candidates" for literally every swing state Republican is typical of this community. If he wins by a lot, they'll pretend like they never said it or that Fetterman was the bad candidate.

[ElectionsGuy]

@ all the people who think Barnette is "weak" "too extreme" to win: she overperformed Trump by 5 in suburban Montgomery County-based PA-04 against an incumbent D in 2020.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/Kathy4Truth/status/1283136331028353024
I got nothing.

She was obviously not using that hashtag in support. That's obvious if you watch the video she QT'd.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why I think Barnette is stronger than Oz/McCormick, despite any baggage of her being "extreme": It's becoming clear that Fetterman is going to try and run a somewhat populist localized campaign, much like Tim Ryan. He can easily attack Oz and McCormick as out of touch, out of state, rich guys who don't care about working people and who are insincere with their political flip-flopping. Can't really do that with Barnette.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/DashaBurns/status/1526184172208914432

Why is this some supposed to be this disqualifying thing? Are we just going to lump anybody who attended the march that day into the same group as those who violently stormed their way into the capital?

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/DashaBurns/status/1526184172208914432

Why is this some supposed to be this disqualifying thing? Are we just going to lump anybody who attended the march that day into the same group as those who violently stormed their way into the capital?

Yes, especially if they marched with the Proud Boys, a literal fascist street gang.

Based on the picture it's completely unclear she even knows who they are lol.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I'm going to laugh so hard when this take (which, the majority of people here agree with) inevitably does not age well. Y'all will never learn.

[ElectionsGuy]

Guys, it was the closed primary. The "Trumpiest" voters who are more likely to back Oz and Barnette are less likely to be registered Republicans than McCormick's more traditionally Republican voters. This didn't make a huge difference, but on the margins can easily explain the 5% or so miss.

When you look at county turnout differentials, this makes sense. Chester County had more R votes, even though that won't happen in the general. Rural counties in western PA barely had more R votes, despite them being overwhelmingly R in generals. This skews the Republican electorate to be less Trump-aligned, like going back in time.

[ElectionsGuy]

I've seen so many people claim McCormick will win after Tuesday night. Looking at it objectively then I thought Oz was the slight favorite, and I definitely don't understand how McCormick can be the favorite now. Unless something dramatic is found in the recount.

The issue in this race generally for anybody trying to catch up is the vote is so splintered just about everywhere - even in regions where Oz/McCormick lead, it's with small margins. Makes it difficult to change the lead dramatically when there's little starkness among geography or voting methods.

[ElectionsGuy]

So that's basically the death knell for McCormick. Good riddance to this transparent fraud. He's very anti-Trump during and after his presidency, only to play pretend America First™ during the primary, and then rely on and fight like hell to count not just mail-in ballots, but undated mail-in ballots. Republican voters I think will remember what he's done here for any future political endeavors.