It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[ElectionsGuy]

If this thread is getting pinned, then Xing's Iowa prediction thread should also get pinned.

Lean Sanders.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't wait to bump this thread Tuesday morning.

[ElectionsGuy]

That's not even how the process works.

In all precinct caucuses, the presidential candidates must meet a 15% viability threshold within the individual precinct (which grows to: 16.67% for small precincts only electing three delegates, 25% for smaller precincts only electing two delegates or 50% for the smallest precincts only electing one delegate) in order to qualify as a viable candidate. Supporters of non-viable candidates having received a result below the viability threshold in the first preliminary vote, are then allowed either to merge their non-viable group with another non-viable group in order to create a big enough group to qualify as a viable candidate, or in the alternative transfer their support by casting their second vote to one of the remaining viable candidates.

You're prediction is as if Biden and Warren will not get anything statewide because they didn't get >15% statewide, when they're bound to get >15% in enough precincts to get at least some vote in the reallocation.

[ElectionsGuy]

Does anyone want to predict which (if any) of the Democratic candidates will end up getting zero state delegate equivalents?  (Meaning, they don't hit 15% viability in a single precinct in the state.)  Looks like in the last Dem. Iowa caucus with more than 3 candidates (2008), Chris Dodd, in 6th place, did manage to get at least a few.  But Gravel and Kucinich both got zero.  Surely with 12 candidates this time, some of them will get zero state delegate equivalents.  I mean, is Bennet really going to get 15% anywhere?  What about Patrick?

Bennet and Patrick, Gabbard and Steyer are possibilities too. Everybody else probably has too much support.

[ElectionsGuy]

2nd last prediction before Monday, last will be Sunday night. I will also provide a full explanation of my thinking, though my confidence is medium to low.

Sanders: 26%
Biden: 19%
Buttigieg: 18%
Warren: 14%
Klobuchar: 12%
Yang: 5%
Steyer: 2%
Gabbard: 2%
Others: 1%

Sanders: 33%
Biden: 26%
Buttigieg: 23%
Warren: 10%
Klobuchar: 6%
Others: 2%

[ElectionsGuy]

First round:
Sanders - 27%
Buttigieg - 22%
Biden - 18%
Warren - 15%

Second round:
Biden - 29%
Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 18%
Warren - 16%

That's not going to happen. There is no way Sanders and Buttigieg will lose support from the initial count if they're at viability in a good majority of precincts (which your numbers indicate they would be). In addition, your second round results would indicate that Joe Biden is almost everyone's 2nd choice, and we know that's not true. If Sanders is winning by 5 in the initial vote, he is pretty likely to win in reallocation even if he has less 2nd choicers.

[ElectionsGuy]

Welp, was hoping for the DMR poll to base final predictions on. Guess we have no real confidence going in! Tossup/tilt Sanders. Hoping for a strong win but expecting a very close race.

NYT/Siena is probably the best next gold standard.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just checked through all the polls in 2016 and compared Sanders' performance. There has never been a state where going in Bernie had a lead in the polling average but failed to win. He over-performed in Iowa by 4 points in 2016. Sanders people should feel cautiously optimistic heading into Iowa. Final prediction coming later tonight after I see Emerson poll (mainly, I just want to see their trend from the previous poll).

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Iowa Prediction

Vote Rating: Lean Sanders

Initial Vote

Sanders: 28%
Biden: 20%
Buttigieg: 16%
Warren: 16%
Klobuchar: 10%
Yang: 5%
Steyer: 3%
Gabbard: 1%
Others: 1%

Reallocated Vote:

Sanders: 33%
Biden: 26%
Buttigieg: 18%
Warren: 18%
Klobuchar: 4%
Others: 1%

State Delegates: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders (due to the rural bias) - although he shouldn't do too bad in most rural areas

I think Sanders will win fairly comfortably, although I'm not super confident about the margin. I will say this, if anybody else wins, I'm fairly confident it will be by a narrow margin, no more than 3% (and that would probably have to be Biden). I'm not at all confident about the order of 2-4, it would not surprise me for Biden to come in behind Buttigieg or Warren. Same with Buttigieg vs Warren. A lot of the polls are all over the place specifically when it comes to Biden and Warren's level of support. Also not that confident in predicting Klobuchar's number, but it doesn't look like she's getting the Santorum surge she needs, to say the least.

Even if there are few delegates coming out of Iowa, the message could be Sanders is the clear person to take on Biden (if he wins by a lot) or the race is still open for anybody's taking (if he wins by a narrow margin). I've thought about the reallocated vote a lot and I don't think it's going to hurt Sanders as much as people think. The 2nd choices of all the candidates are not super disproportionate, and while have noticed that Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are generally not friendly to Bernie, Yang and Warren supporters are not generally friendly to Biden. Because there are more Klobuchar voters that will probably get reallocated, it will skew a point or two to Biden in the margin but not something crazy like a +8 swing.

Overall, this is going to be a fun night tomorrow. There's a lot of possibilities, I will not be on Atlas to avoid hysteria (and it generally crashes anyway on election nights, right?). I will be just watching cable news for the once in a great while that I do.

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Iowa Prediction

Vote Rating: Lean Sanders

Initial Vote

Sanders: 28%
Biden: 20%
Buttigieg: 16%
Warren: 16%
Klobuchar: 10%
Yang: 5%
Steyer: 3%
Gabbard: 1%
Others: 1%

Reallocated Vote:

Sanders: 33%
Biden: 26%
Buttigieg: 18%
Warren: 18%
Klobuchar: 4%
Others: 1%

State Delegates: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders (due to the rural bias) - although he shouldn't do too bad in most rural areas

I think Sanders will win fairly comfortably, although I'm not super confident about the margin. I will say this, if anybody else wins, I'm fairly confident it will be by a narrow margin, no more than 3% (and that would probably have to be Biden). I'm not at all confident about the order of 2-4, it would not surprise me for Biden to come in behind Buttigieg or Warren. Same with Buttigieg vs Warren. A lot of the polls are all over the place specifically when it comes to Biden and Warren's level of support. Also not that confident in predicting Klobuchar's number, but it doesn't look like she's getting the Santorum surge she needs, to say the least.

Even if there are few delegates coming out of Iowa, the message could be Sanders is the clear person to take on Biden (if he wins by a lot) or the race is still open for anybody's taking (if he wins by a narrow margin). I've thought about the reallocated vote a lot and I don't think it's going to hurt Sanders as much as people think. The 2nd choices of all the candidates are not super disproportionate, and while have noticed that Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are generally not friendly to Bernie, Yang and Warren supporters are not generally friendly to Biden. Because there are more Klobuchar voters that will probably get reallocated, it will skew a point or two to Biden in the margin but not something crazy like a +8 swing.

Overall, this is going to be a fun night tomorrow. There's a lot of possibilities, I will not be on Atlas to avoid hysteria (and it generally crashes anyway on election nights, right?). I will be just watching cable news for the once in a great while that I do.

Republican

Trump - 92%
Weld - 5%
Walsh - 2%
Others - 1%

Rep Turnout: 140K
Dem Turnout: 310K