Is Virginia Gone to Republicans?

[ElectionsGuy]

With Mark Warner "likely" to be Senator-elect again in 2014, and if republicans lose this gubernatorial race this November, can they still prove that Virginia still has Republican DNA left for 2016? If Hillary runs, I have doubts. I think it might be a while until we see a republican victory in the old dominion (unless Ken Cuccinelli wins, in which he has a 50/50 chance), which is hard for me to say. Will the Old Dominion turn into the Democratic Dominion soon?

[ElectionsGuy]

Man, this is hard, I guess, if anything, Virginia will just be tossed around between the Republicans and Democrats... but hey, anything can happen!

Yep

[ElectionsGuy]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

Yeah, a lot of strategists actually predict Black vote will go down (%) as in turnout when Obama is done. By the way D.C. will always be >80% D no matter what, it has never voted for a republican, and probably never will so it's a lost cause. Ohio used to be the perfect bellwether state, now it's Virginia. Virginia has moved from light red to purple, while Ohio has been steady purple for a while, and even though Florida is seen as a complete swing state, I think it's a very light red as it votes more republican than the nation almost always.

[ElectionsGuy]

Continued growth of D.C. has turned VA from light red to reddish purple. It fits in the same category as Florida and Ohio. Look at the last 2 elections and it's shown the exact same percentages as the popular vote. If that's not solid purple, then I don't know what is. D.C. has had a higher turnout in the last 2 elections too though, likely due to Obama being the Democratic candidate. I look for VA to be slightly to the right of the popular vote next time, but not by much. Wishful liberal thinking is what would lead someone to misconstrue statistics or believe it's a Democratic state now.

Yeah, a lot of strategists actually predict Black vote will go down (%) as in turnout when Obama is done. By the way D.C. will always be >80% D no matter what, it has never voted for a republican, and probably never will so it's a lost cause. Ohio used to be the perfect bellwether state, now it's Virginia. Virginia has moved from light red to purple, while Ohio has been steady purple for a while, and even though Florida is seen as a complete swing state, I think it's a very light red as it votes more republican than the nation almost always.

I agree Florida is more like a purplish red. As for  D.C., I was referring to the D.C. suburbs that bleed into Virginia, not D.C. itself. Actually without Obama on the ticket, I think Nevada would be another perfect bellwether state but that's a different topic.

Oh, Alexandria and Arlington are surprising, both are whiter than Fairfax County itself and yet more liberal. I would guess many are rich government workers. And yes turnout might go down in those areas, but I don't know, we'll see.

Nevada is an elastic state so it's pretty unpredictable, but in 2004 it was a pretty good bellwether.

[ElectionsGuy]

As someone who lives in the NOVA area.  I'd say it's a purple state that is getting bluer every year.  The problem Republicans will have in Virginia going forward is that while the vote totals are close, the number of swing voters in the state is very small.  Right now, on the Presidential level, 48% of the state is going to vote Democrat, 46% is going to vote Republican, and the remaining 6% is up for grabs.  By 2020, those numbers will probably shift to 50% Democrat, 44% Republican.

I have to think that the people in this thread talking about how Virginia is a lean-right state, the democratic growth is overrated, and that it will trend back to center are somewhat delusional.

There is no denying that NOVA growth is accelerating and continues to outpace the rest of the state.  I also suspect the growth will accelerate even more, largely because DC itself can hardly fit any more people to sustain the growth it is experiencing and a lot of people are moving into Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria.  Which I think is pushing a lot of Fairfax people to the outer burbs.  It's increasing the population of Fairfax, and it's making the outer burbs far more liberal. 

If Republicans couldn't win against a President who backed gay marriage in 2012, not sure why they think they will win in 2020.  The only argument I buy is that African American turnout will be lower.  The argument that Virginia voters are about average when compared to the national vote is not persuasive either.  The national vote is trending democrat as well.  Republicans have a problem, and it's not just in Virginia, but Virginia is a pretty strong example of their problem... it's diversifying, urbanizing, and becoming much better educated.  All factors that point to it becoming a blue state. 

I think this is part of the natural electoral movement of states throughout history. States getting more democratic and more republican, and Virginia is one of those states getting more Democratic. Remember that this is a democratic dominated era, democrats also had a huge problem in the 1980's, but in the 1990's they won big (besides '94). Republicans and Democrats have new appeals over time, and eventually this Democratic dominated era will change. I agree with you on the republican problem, it seems like everything is moving away from the GOP: More Urban, More Diverse, Less White, Less Religious, etc. It is frustrating for some conservatives, but with that said the GOP will eventually pick up it's feet in the future, it's just a matter of time.

[ElectionsGuy]

At the presidential level, not quite yet, but since its D trend will likely continue, probably after about 3 to 4 cycles.

AT the state level, they could probably still win elections with the right candidates (but definitely NOT with E. W. Jackson-type candidates). However, I see the democrats becoming the dominant party by the mid 2020's to early 2030's.

What do you mean democrats becoming the dominant party in the 2020's/2030's? They ARE the dominant party.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...

Actual leftist? OK forget that for a second. The reason Midwest states like Wisconsin and Iowa are democratic is because democrats there get about half of the white vote, and 80%+ of Minority vote, therefore being a Lean D state. Virginia however is purple and becoming blue because it's diverse. The white vote is still heavily republican, but not republican enough... Now if you're talking about the levels of vote then yes it is becoming Wisconsin, in fact Virginia in 2008 looks similar to Wisconsin 2012 (%). Honestly the only really strong county the republicans have in Virginia is Hanover, while the democrats have almost every big city and Northern Virginia, and republicans get most of the rural west and center.

Now actual leftist? Obama was rated one of the most liberal Senators in 2007. I don't think there has been a lefter president besides possibly FDR or Truman.

[ElectionsGuy]

We can't know the answer until Obama's not on the ballot. VA will give Republicans fits for a cycle or two but I wouldn't say its gone. I can see Chris Christie taking Virginia fairly comfortably (approx. 5 points) but the "true conservatives" won't compete. I wasn't surprised when Obama won Virginia in 2008 but I was surprised with the margin. A growing public sector isn't necessarily going to help Republicans going into future elections though.

Very reasonable and non-partisan answer. I wish more posters could share such fairness, myself included. Virginia was clearly an over performance for Obama and matched the popular vote both times. To me that's about as purple as it gets. Now without Obama on the ticket, it would still probably be a little to the right of center which is where I would put the state. It's reddish-purple. I'd say the same thing about Colorado.

It could be an over performance, but I can't be sure. We'll see how good the democrat does with Minorities in 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

I asked this question in 2013. In 2020, I think we have a clear answer. I'm still curious if Republicans can get close in the Governor and statewide races next year though after the embarrassing administration of Governor Blackface and Lt Governor Rapist.