Is Virginia Gone to Republicans?

[DS0816]

Well we must remember that Obama has several unique strengths(black appeal, youth appeal, formidable campaigner, GOTV) that Democrats may not be able to replicate in 2016 and beyond.

If the Dems play their cards correctly like '08/'12 then yes it will continue to trend D. However, trends don't last forever, and can be interrupted. Let's say the GOP gets its stuff together, it could win if the nominee is moderate enough and the Obama coalition cannot be re-created. Republicans could win.

Current trend: Democrat
Considering times change, and people change: swing state.

How is the GOP going to get "its stuff together"?

[barfbag]

Well we must remember that Obama has several unique strengths(black appeal, youth appeal, formidable campaigner, GOTV) that Democrats may not be able to replicate in 2016 and beyond.

If the Dems play their cards correctly like '08/'12 then yes it will continue to trend D. However, trends don't last forever, and can be interrupted. Let's say the GOP gets its stuff together, it could win if the nominee is moderate enough and the Obama coalition cannot be re-created. Republicans could win.

Current trend: Democrat
Considering times change, and people change: swing state.

How is the GOP going to get "its stuff together"?

Look at modern presidential election history. It goes 8 years Republican, 8 years Democrat, 8 years Republican, 8 years Democrat, for the most part. 1984 looked much worse for Democrats than 2008 or 2012 did for Republicans. Ever see the 1936 electoral map? Republicans got there stuff together after that catastrophe.

[Adam Griffin]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...

[barfbag]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...

what do you mean by true leftist? After hearing Obama in 2003 talk about how there's tricks to get this country on universal healthcare, I didn't know there could be anyone to his left.

[politicsguru13]

We can't know the answer until Obama's not on the ballot. VA will give Republicans fits for a cycle or two but I wouldn't say its gone. I can see Chris Christie taking Virginia fairly comfortably (approx. 5 points) but the "true conservatives" won't compete. I wasn't surprised when Obama won Virginia in 2008 but I was surprised with the margin. A growing public sector isn't necessarily going to help Republicans going into future elections though.

[barfbag]

We can't know the answer until Obama's not on the ballot. VA will give Republicans fits for a cycle or two but I wouldn't say its gone. I can see Chris Christie taking Virginia fairly comfortably (approx. 5 points) but the "true conservatives" won't compete. I wasn't surprised when Obama won Virginia in 2008 but I was surprised with the margin. A growing public sector isn't necessarily going to help Republicans going into future elections though.

Very reasonable and non-partisan answer. I wish more posters could share such fairness, myself included. Virginia was clearly an over performance for Obama and matched the popular vote both times. To me that's about as purple as it gets. Now without Obama on the ticket, it would still probably be a little to the right of center which is where I would put the state. It's reddish-purple. I'd say the same thing about Colorado.

[Adam Griffin]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...

what do you mean by true leftist? After hearing Obama in 2003 talk about how there's tricks to get this country on universal healthcare, I didn't know there could be anyone to his left.

I'm not trying to be overly-ideological here, but Obama isn't exactly the most leftist President we've ever had - perhaps on social issues, but those issues tend to consistently move 'to the left' as society changes.

We didn't see him make a concerted push for single-payer healthcare, massive job programs or any of the large-scale government investments that you would expect from a 'traditional leftist' - he tended to negotiate with himself on what he thought Republicans would want and then watch it get watered down even more - if it passed at all. Even the big-ticket items like the 2009 ARRA were heavily comprised of conservative-favored policies, such as the temporary FICA tax cuts (which was something like 40% of the program). When you look at economics, we've had several Presidents to whom the term 'socialist' would apply much more than BHO.

A lot of the new Democratic growth in Virginia is coming from socially-liberal, economically-moderate upper-class voters - which BHO has done well with in both elections. They would not be so inclined to support someone who was calling for a nationalization of major energy sectors or wanted to raise the top income tax bracket to 50%.


Politicsguru is right: once Obama is off the ballot, things could change - but only if the Democratic candidate is to the left of Obama on economics. Otherwise, the standard 'modern-day Democrat' (those who cozy up with Wall Street and placate certain notions of supply-side economics) will continue to do well and win in Virginia.

[barfbag]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...

what do you mean by true leftist? After hearing Obama in 2003 talk about how there's tricks to get this country on universal healthcare, I didn't know there could be anyone to his left.

I'm not trying to be overly-ideological here, but Obama isn't exactly the most leftist President we've ever had - perhaps on social issues, but those issues tend to consistently move 'to the left' as society changes.

We didn't see him make a concerted push for single-payer healthcare, massive job programs or any of the large-scale government investments that you would expect from a 'traditional leftist' - he tended to negotiate with himself on what he thought Republicans would want and then watch it get watered down even more - if it passed at all. Even the big-ticket items like the 2009 ARRA were heavily comprised of conservative-favored policies, such as the temporary FICA tax cuts (which was something like 40% of the program). When you look at economics, we've had several Presidents to whom the term 'socialist' would apply much more than BHO.

A lot of the new Democratic growth in Virginia is coming from socially-liberal, economically-moderate upper-class voters - which BHO has done well with in both elections. They would not be so inclined to support someone who was calling for a nationalization of major energy sectors or wanted to raise the top income tax bracket to 50%.


Politicsguru is right: once Obama is off the ballot, things could change - but only if the Democratic candidate is to the left of Obama on economics. Otherwise, the standard 'modern-day Democrat' (those who cozy up with Wall Street and placate certain notions of supply-side economics) will continue to do well and win in Virginia.

All politicians cozy up with Wall Street and special interest groups. Virginia will be competitive for a while. There are two things. First of all, Virginia has been moving to the left each election since 1988 or at least 1996 so if it were to move a little bit more to the left, then it would still match the overall popular vote and then drift a little more to the left. However, if it stops moving to the left, then it will still be slightly to the right of  the popular vote but not by much. Either way the last two elections have been slightly misleading about Virginia. McCain may have done as well as 49% against Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney may have been within a point.

Obama's ideology isn't really the point of this thread, but perhaps he's been to the right of Carter for the sake of politics. There's no way a he could've been re-elected last year if he had the same politics as Carter. If you listen to what he said about using tricks to manipulate the United States into a single payer system in 2003, then you have a much more liberal individual than the presidency has ever seen and I don't think he's changed much throughout his life. He also seems to have a raging hatred for anyone who makes a lot of money. It could also be argued that when he mentions the wealthy it's code for Republicans.

[ElectionsGuy]

At the presidential level, not quite yet, but since its D trend will likely continue, probably after about 3 to 4 cycles.

AT the state level, they could probably still win elections with the right candidates (but definitely NOT with E. W. Jackson-type candidates). However, I see the democrats becoming the dominant party by the mid 2020's to early 2030's.

What do you mean democrats becoming the dominant party in the 2020's/2030's? They ARE the dominant party.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...

Actual leftist? OK forget that for a second. The reason Midwest states like Wisconsin and Iowa are democratic is because democrats there get about half of the white vote, and 80%+ of Minority vote, therefore being a Lean D state. Virginia however is purple and becoming blue because it's diverse. The white vote is still heavily republican, but not republican enough... Now if you're talking about the levels of vote then yes it is becoming Wisconsin, in fact Virginia in 2008 looks similar to Wisconsin 2012 (%). Honestly the only really strong county the republicans have in Virginia is Hanover, while the democrats have almost every big city and Northern Virginia, and republicans get most of the rural west and center.

Now actual leftist? Obama was rated one of the most liberal Senators in 2007. I don't think there has been a lefter president besides possibly FDR or Truman.

[ElectionsGuy]

We can't know the answer until Obama's not on the ballot. VA will give Republicans fits for a cycle or two but I wouldn't say its gone. I can see Chris Christie taking Virginia fairly comfortably (approx. 5 points) but the "true conservatives" won't compete. I wasn't surprised when Obama won Virginia in 2008 but I was surprised with the margin. A growing public sector isn't necessarily going to help Republicans going into future elections though.

Very reasonable and non-partisan answer. I wish more posters could share such fairness, myself included. Virginia was clearly an over performance for Obama and matched the popular vote both times. To me that's about as purple as it gets. Now without Obama on the ticket, it would still probably be a little to the right of center which is where I would put the state. It's reddish-purple. I'd say the same thing about Colorado.

It could be an over performance, but I can't be sure. We'll see how good the democrat does with Minorities in 2016.

[DS0816]

Well we must remember that Obama has several unique strengths(black appeal, youth appeal, formidable campaigner, GOTV) that Democrats may not be able to replicate in 2016 and beyond.

If the Dems play their cards correctly like '08/'12 then yes it will continue to trend D. However, trends don't last forever, and can be interrupted. Let's say the GOP gets its stuff together, it could win if the nominee is moderate enough and the Obama coalition cannot be re-created. Republicans could win.

Current trend: Democrat
Considering times change, and people change: swing state.

How is the GOP going to get "its stuff together"?

Look at modern presidential election history. It goes 8 years Republican, 8 years Democrat, 8 years Republican, 8 years Democrat, for the most part. 1984 looked much worse for Democrats than 2008 or 2012 did for Republicans. Ever see the 1936 electoral map? Republicans got there stuff together after that catastrophe.

Are you saying, "After 1980 and 1984 elections and re-elections for Ronald Reagan, the Democrats won back the White House in 1988"?

[barfbag]

We can't know the answer until Obama's not on the ballot. VA will give Republicans fits for a cycle or two but I wouldn't say its gone. I can see Chris Christie taking Virginia fairly comfortably (approx. 5 points) but the "true conservatives" won't compete. I wasn't surprised when Obama won Virginia in 2008 but I was surprised with the margin. A growing public sector isn't necessarily going to help Republicans going into future elections though.

Very reasonable and non-partisan answer. I wish more posters could share such fairness, myself included. Virginia was clearly an over performance for Obama and matched the popular vote both times. To me that's about as purple as it gets. Now without Obama on the ticket, it would still probably be a little to the right of center which is where I would put the state. It's reddish-purple. I'd say the same thing about Colorado.

Matching the popular vote would make a state purple if the two parties were on equal footing nationally.  They're not.  The country is trending democratic and so is Virginia.  It also seems more likely that Virginia was not an "over performance" by Obama, but rather an "under performance" by Gore and Kerry.  The fact is that almost every region of the state that is growing rapidly voted solidly for Obama.  The few regions that are shrinking in population voted solidly for Romney.  Not sure how that coupled with back to back losses by the GOP in a heavily contested state = a "right of center" state.

Throughout the last century we've had 8 years Republican, 8 years Democrat basically when it comes to the White House. It won't change anytime soon. 8 years from now Republicans will be saying the whole country is trending Republican. Remember 2002? People jump to conclusion all the time and all it does is cause heart breaks and head aches. Virginia has matched the popular vote in the past two elections and Obama very well may have over performed there. You, me, and the rest of the voters will have to wait until 2016 to really see. Anything at this point is guessing and speculation.

[Frodo]

Over the past four election cycles since Virginia first flipped in 2008, I trust this question has been answered to everyone's satisfaction.  

[Kuumo]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Imagine telling someone in 2013 that Virginia would vote more than 8 points to the left of Wisconsin in the 2020 Presidential election.

[Frodo]

So it is worth noting that Stafford county flipped to Biden, and that Caroline and Essex counties only need one more election before they go Democratic too.  Spotsylvania county is getting more competitive with time as well.  The area around Fredericksburg is beginning to go the way of Loudoun and Prince William counties to their north.  

[jamestroll]

Let's see how it votes under a Democratic administration next year but my sense is that it just jumped over the line to be immune from most national GOP blowouts.

[ElectionsGuy]

I asked this question in 2013. In 2020, I think we have a clear answer. I'm still curious if Republicans can get close in the Governor and statewide races next year though after the embarrassing administration of Governor Blackface and Lt Governor Rapist.

[jamestroll]

I asked this question in 2013. In 2020, I think we have a clear answer. I'm still curious if Republicans can get close in the Governor and statewide races next year though after the embarrassing administration of Governor Blackface and Lt Governor Rapist.

Most people i know rate it anywhere between tilt r and likely r. No one I know rates it as anything better for Democrats than toss up. In reference to va gov 2021.

My hunch is that Democrats win it but the gop may sneak by in one of the three statewide offices.

[Chips]

I asked this question in 2013. In 2020, I think we have a clear answer. I'm still curious if Republicans can get close in the Governor and statewide races next year though after the embarrassing administration of Governor Blackface and Lt Governor Rapist.

They could but not especially likely.

[Agonized-Statism]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

For a second I thought this was a 2020 post and I was like "wat"

[ultraviolet]

Was confused about this until I saw when it was made