2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Now 4 of Trump's tweets from today are hidden behind a warning.

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Why does CNN have stripes on WI on its map? Because Trump is asking for a recount?

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Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

Look at everything Trump has done by executive order. Biden can undo it. Plus Fauci and Wray won't be fired. Plus we'll be respected in the world again. Also probably don't have to worry about a possible war with Iran.

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Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

Look at everything Trump has done by executive order. Biden can undo it. Plus Fauci and Wray won't be fired. Plus we'll be respected in the world again. Also probably don't have to worry about a possible war with Iran.

Also if Breyer dies or needs to retire the Republicans can't fill the seat and make it 7-2.

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

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I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Yeah I'm seeing this all over social media. Finding ballots randomly in Michigan. And something about sharpie pens spoiling ballots in Arizona? I don't know.

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It's kind of funny that FOX Decision Desk is firmly standing by their call on AZ whereas NYT hasn't called it yet.

What special data could FOX have that NYT doesn't? Aren't they looking at the same data?

It's the same data but they've built different models for extrapolating the vote based on what they have.

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Ok Jesusland was nice but:

I can't bear NM, AZ, and OK. Also, I hate that little arm of WV that sneaks into the blue south, and also Maryland's sharp corner against a very curvy divide

Maryland's red if you go by the popular vote.

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They only made a mistake if Trump wins. When you make the call, it includes the possibility that the margin could get razor thin, but that's it.

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Is this the longest thread in forum history?

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Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

When Fox News called Ohio in 2008 much to Karl Rove's ire, Megan Kelly talked to the decision room and they said they look at precincts as part of make a call. The fact that there seems to be nothing left to count in heavily red Yavapai County might be part of their metric.

That actually occurred in 2012.

I don't know why I put 2008. I just rewatched that whole scene a few days ago.

In 2008 Rove was talking on air when they interrupted him for the Ohio call, after he had just been explaining that Ohio is ball game. He was kind of shell shocked. He didn't question the call though that time.

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From the perspective of a supporter of Trump, the past 24 hours could not have been more horrifying.

Most of them were expecting a quick victory, allowing them to get ample and sound sleep. Many of them did.

And I tossed and turned all night and only got like 3 hours. But I anticipate no issues tonight. 💤

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I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left.

Don't see why. It's looking like he called this election right.

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I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left.

Don't see why. It's looking like he called this election right.

When it is a 2 horse race, it is not difficult to be right at least some of the time.

People listen to pollsters for specific info, and when it comes to the specifics his polls and commentary favoured an enormous win for Biden and the house. Neither have happened.

Shifting the goalposts. If he was "wrong" for saying Trump would lose in 2016 despite giving him a 30% chance to win, then he was certainly right to give Biden a 90% chance of victory if he does in fact win.

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It makes no sense what they're doing. Shutting down the count that could put their candidate ahead?

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We all have PTSD, but why would Biden's team launch a transition website and communicate with the Trump team about transition as well. They're not pulling a Hillary and jumping the gun, are they?

I think it's the law that they have to move quickly. It's moot if Trump wins.

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They only made a mistake if Trump wins. When you make the call, it includes the possibility that the margin could get razor thin, but that's it.

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Thanks for the feedback everybody.

Based on the responses it looks like:

N CAROLINA = 5 to 15%
GEORGIA = 50 to 75%
NEVADA = 65 to 75%
ARIZONA = 70% to 95%
PENNSYLVANIA = 60% to 95%

25% spread on GA and AZ and a 35% spread on PA. Some of y'all are wrong and we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow (and hopefully a new President-Elect).

It's late but if the lower ends of your estimates are right I get Biden has a 87.55% chance of winning and if the upper ends are right he has 99.65% chance of winning. Assumed he wins with PA or 2 of the other states and they're independent chances at this point.

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324386685858287616

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324353932022480896
Trump secretly posts on Atlas. Don't @ me.

Stopping the count means Biden wins lol.

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324401527663058944

He wants to be arrested?

I'm glad CNN isn't covering his tweet s***storm. I'm not sure if the other networks are covering it but I doubt they are with this idiot.

MSNBC is occasionally mentioning his tweets and basically laughing them off and not spending much time on them.

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Trump has 3 tweets flagged today so far. Wonder if he'll break his record of 5 from yesterday.

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So it appears Trump beat the polls because he was able to turn out more white, non-college voters. Do we think this is sustainable and will these voters turn out for a Senate run off on Jan 5th?

Who knows but I doubt it. Trump stoked crazy turnout on both sides. But Dems will be less energized to turnout as well.

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While I do want Biden to win the popular vote with as big as margin as possible, it is very discouraging going forward if he actually ends up winning the NPV by 5 points in SUCH a tight election where numerous states are super close. The NPV-EC discrepancy is getting unsustainably large. Are we really at a point where democrats have to get 5%-points more votes than republicans to win elections?

It could be Trump specific. Dems had structural advantages in electoral college in '08 and '12 and probably '04.

edit: changed '16 to '12

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Does anyone remember the 2000 election?

I was too young to really care at the time.  I know there are stark and obvious differences between then and now, but was the anxiety about the same or more intense?

Well Bush was not hated anywhere near as much as he is now so the stakes were not as high from many people's perspective. A lot of people were worried that there was a crisis because "We don't have a President." It felt like it dragged forever so I'd say there was more anxiety than there is now. But in the end everyone kind of accepted the result, partisans aside. Whereas now I think there will be a lot of animosity here regardless of what happens.