Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[emailking]

Wow another poll with Biden +11.

[emailking]

Pretty sure it might not be too hard to surmise a cause for his abysmal approval numbers that may also be a cause for his potential landslide defeat in the Fall.

[emailking]

Who said they were waiting for Gallup...?

Gallup, May 28-June 4, 1034 adults (prior poll May 1-13)

Approve 39 (-10)
Disapprove 57 (+9)

👀

😲

[emailking]

Øptimus coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), June 6-13, 840 adults including 742 LV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 58 (-4)

Strongly approve 20 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (+2)

GCB: D 39 (nc), R 32 (+2)


RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Biden 52 (-1), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 39 (nc)


Possibly some reversion to the mean after their last two surveys, which were abysmal for Trump.

Is this approval or virus approval?

[emailking]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

 You guys can keep fooling yourselves but if Democrats don't have record turnout, Trump will win.

The horse race polls ask if you're going to vote and take that into account right? They're not just straight surveys asking how you would vote if you hypothetically decide to.

Sure if hardly any Dems show up to vote and lots of Republicans do, Trump will win. But right now the polling is showing sufficient democrats plan to vote to effect a landslide.

[emailking]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey, June 19-22, 800 RV (change from April)

Approve 39 (-7)
Disapprove 52 (+9)

Biden 47 (+3), Trump 38 (-1)

This is usually a good poll for Trump.

Another 16 point change. 😲

[emailking]

It's a 278 race though so it doesn't matter, Biden still wins.

[emailking]

These Trump improvements are a bit disheartening.

[emailking]

Thanks Kayne.

[emailking]

How can you be simultaneously confident that it is only a 278 (sometimes 279) race, and also that Trump will lose?

[emailking]

I just got my hands on Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)

That's a great book. Has a lot of non-political stuff too.

[emailking]

Biden is returning to the campaign trail and only campaigning in PA, WI and MIN. That should tell you that it's not gonna be a 500 EC map

You are literally the only person on this site I've seen mention a 500 EC map as a possibility.

[emailking]

Yeah I think it's pretty reasonable to compare 2 elections that have a candidate in common. No one is saying this necessarily means Trump will lose.

[emailking]

Unless they're more Trump friendly because they're capturing the shy trump effect, then that's just a coincidence. They should be included but all polls should be weighted according to their track record.

[emailking]

It's tightened by like 0.2 points since before the conventions.

[emailking]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

This has the premise that Biden is inheriting Hilary's map. He's not her and is also polling better than she.

[emailking]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

This has the premise that Biden is inheriting Hilary's map. He's not her and is also polling better than she.

I had the impression the Clinton campaign apparatus was far superior to Biden-Harris.

The current polling evidence would suggest you were mistaken but we'll see I guess.

[emailking]

You really think the only possibilities for Trump are 46% and 47%?

[emailking]

You really think the only possibilities for Trump are 46% and 47%?

Yes.

He hasn’t lost much, if any, support over the last 4 years. 2020 will be similar to 2016 with what the result looks like, but the underlying mechanisms are very similar to Obama’s re-election in 2012 - almost perfect match, actually (but ofc Trump isn’t winning the pop vote).

Then unless there's a significant 3rd party vote Trump is toast.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632

[emailking]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

Please learn what an outlier is.

48% Fox News
47% The Hill
48% Rasmussen
45% CNBC
46% Harris

Lol clown

Does it matter? You said Trump can only get 46% or 47%.

[emailking]

Guess you're not big on the 538 model then...which seems to be charitable to Trump to be honest but I believe in the methodology so I go with it.

[emailking]

Gotcha.

[emailking]

Trump's approval rating is skyrocketing. He's now more popular than he was before the pandemic. The virus has been a political gift to him.

What do you think his approval rating will be on Election Day, Beet? Mid-50s, closer to 60?

I'm genuinely interested in your prediction, Beet. This would put some meet on the bones of your posts about Trump rising in the polls - if we could measure it objectively against a target.

Lol you're too much.

Careful. We all laughed at Beet when he predicted COVID-19 would become a worldwide pandemic and look how that turned out.

If you go back to the early days of Part 1 the hype from some posters was way worse than the eventual reality. Very high CFRs were being predicted/claimed, like orders of magnitude higher.

[emailking]

Biden numbers dropping rapidly now....Trump is popping leads in FL, AZ, MI and almost NC, with PA razor thin.

I saw Biden also popped leads in AZ and MI today.

[emailking]

Trump's approval rating is now higher than at any point in his presidency except immediately post-inauguration and during his pandemic bump. With just a month to go until his re-election, it continues to barrel higher with no sign of slowing.

It will be short lived. (3 & a half more months, specifically.)