Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

The official campaign starts in mid-August. But April 2nd is an important date because it is exactly 6 months before the election, which will take place on October 2nd.
April 2nd is the deadline for:

Switching parties: candidates who want to switch their parties before the election should do it no fewer than 6 months before.

Mayors who want to run for senator/governor/president, governors who want to run for senator/president, ministers who want to want for senator/governor/president to resign: according to the Constitution, under the Amendment 16/1997, a president/governor/mayor is allowed to run for one reelection while in the office, but if he/she wants to run for another office, it is necessary to resign from the current office 6 months before the election.

[buritobr]

In Brazil, voting is compulsory for people between 18 and 70 years old. 16-17 year old people and >70 people are free to choose between voting or not.
People have until May 4th as deadline to register. Until now, only 12% of the 16-17 old people have already registered. Some artists are making campaing in order to convince 16-17 old people to register to vote. The share of people of this age who register to vote is declining since 2012.

Since Lula is doing better in the group of 16-24 year old people and left-wing candidates for governor are doing better in this group too, left-wing parties are also trying to convince teens to register to vote.
But I think teens who are really willing to vote for the left have already registered.

[buritobr]

When I read the news this morning, I though Doria was thinking in staying governor and running for reelection. Fernando Haddad will probably win if he runs against Rodrigo Garcia and Tarcísio, since they are very unknown. But Doria, although he has low approval rate, he could take the advantage of the incumbency.

But in the end of the afternoon we heard that Doria will resign his office of governor, the vice Rodrigo Garcia will become the governor, and Doria will run for president.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, April 1-3

Moro running
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 6%, Ciro 5%, Janones 3%

Moro not running
Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro 6%

Runoff: Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 34%

Bolsonaro administration's evaluation
Positive 26%, Regular 25%, Negative 47%

Quaest confirms the trends showed by other polls: Lula is stable, Bolsonaro is growing at the expense of other right-wing candidates, Lula's margin in the runoff is slightly decreasing, Bolsonaro's evaluation is slightly getting better. Lula has still the highest probability to win, but it won't be a very easy race.

[buritobr]

Datafolha April 5-6:

Governor of the state of São Paulo

Marcio França running scenario
Fernando Haddad (PT) 29%, Marcio França (PSB) 20%, Tarcísio (R) 10%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 6%

Marcio França not running scenario
Fernando Haddad (PT) 35%, Tarcisio (R) 11%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 11%


Governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Freixo (PSB) 22%, Claudio Castro (PL) 18%, Rodrigo Neves (PDT) 7%

[buritobr]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

[buritobr]

Yes, Lula and Alckmin were not close friends in a recent past, and this fact is an aditional fuel to the narrative that different forces should join against the biggest Enemy.
Although Lula could win even in a pure left-wing ticket, he wanted a non-leftist as a running mate because he wants to have sure he will win and because he wants a broad base in the Congress.

Other non-leftist names could be opitions, but I believe Lula chose Alckmin because he was thinking in the election for the governor of São Paulo. PT has a big chance to elect a governor of the most powerful state for the first time, and Alckmin could be a strong competitor against Fernando Haddad. So, convincing Alckmin to be Lula's running mate removed him from Haddad's way. Without Alckmin and his ally Marcio França, Haddad will have easier opponents: Tarcísio Freitas, endorsed by unpopular Bolsonaro, and Rodrigo Garcia, endorsed by unpopular Joao Doria.

[buritobr]

Lula lost three elections before winning his 4th one in 2002. What did he do different? He appealed to moderates and the middle class.

It is correct, but I add a further information: in 2002 and in 2006, Lula had the same 61% of the valid vote in the runoff. But the base was very different. Lula performed well in the middle class when he was elected in the 1st time in 2002. However, his main base when he was reelected in 2006 was the very poor. Lula performed worse in the middle class in 2006 when he won than he performed in 1989 when he lost.
Very poor people also prefer moderate candidates.

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll April 2022

State of São Paulo

Governor (Marcio França running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 29%, Marcio França (PSB) 19%, Tarcísio (R) 13%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 5%

Governor (Marcio França not running)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 35%, Tarcísio de Freitas (R) 18%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 9%

Ronoff
Haddad 40%, Tarcísio 27%
Haddad 39%, Tarcísio 23%

President (Sergio Moro not running)
Lula 34%, Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 6%

Runoff
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 36%


In most states, Lula is much bigger than local PT candidates. In São Paulo, probably the vote for Haddad for governor and for Lula for president will be the same.

PT can win a presidential election in São Paulo for the 1st time since 2002. But Lula's margin in São Paulo is smaller than the national margin, according to the polls

[buritobr]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

There are so many parallels between the 2020 US election and 2022 Brazilian election.

You have a well known, fairly popular and universally recognized figure seeking to take out a far right incumbent. The opposition is trying to appeal to both the left, center and disgruntled center right disgusted by the incumbent.

Both Biden and Lula should have ran in the previous elections (2016/2018) and probably would have won those elections. Both did not run because of BS reasons (Hillary taking over the DNC, Lula going to jail over carwash). Both are very old.

Does that mean Bolsonaro could run again in 2026 if he loses?

He is allowed to run. The constitution forbids only more than 2 consecutive terms. Lula had already 2 terms, but he can run now because the 3rd term won't be consecutive.

But I don't believe Bolsonaro would run in 2026. If he runs, I don't believe he will perform well. He wouldn't have the incumbency advantage like he has now.

[buritobr]

PoderData poll, April 10-12

Moro not running

First round
Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 5%

Runoff
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 38%

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/frente-de-lula-sobre-bolsonaro-cai-a-5-pontos-diz-poderdata/

After the pandemic became not the most important topic anymore, Bolsonaro is closing the gap

[buritobr]

Projection of the newspaper "O Estado de São Paulo" of the performance of the candidates to president in the states based on polls
https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1515683762172047361

Lula: Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo

Bolsonaro: Acre, Roraima, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Distrito Federal, Paraná, Santa Catarina

undefined: Goiás, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul


I think only the 9 states in the Northeast are safe Lula, and Acre, Roraima, Rondônia, Santa Catarina are safe Bolsonaro. All the others are undefined.

[buritobr]

New EXAME/IDEIA poll shows Bolsonaro closing the gap on the 1st round.

Scenario with Doria:

Lula (PT) 42%
Bolsonaro (PL) 33%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%

Scenario with Leite (yup internal fighting even after primaries):

Lula (PT) 43%
Bolsonaro (PL) 34%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 4%

Everyone else has either 1% or less than that. Now with Sergio Moro out of the race, it’s natural to Bolsonaro to go up as he is the closest option to inherit his voters.

Last poll from this institute from 1 month ago included all of Moro (dropped out) and Leite and Doria (still a bit uncertain who will be PSDB candidate even if most likely it’s Doria). It was:

Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 29%
Sérgio Moro 9%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Eduardo Leite 2%
João Doria 1%

This same Exame/Ideia poll

Abortion
55%: should remain a crime
38%: should not be considered a crime anymore

Good news. Some time ago, the margin against the legalization of the abortion was much higher. Now, I believe the left-wing candidates can be safe in supporting pro-choice views. 55% are against, but we can imagine that the number of people who consider this a very important issue in order to vote is much smaller. People who only vote for candidates against legal abortion will already vote for the right anyway.

[buritobr]

Ibovespa fell more than 2% on Friday April 22nd, after Bolsonaro had conceeded pardon to the representative Daniel Silveira. It means that the financial markets considered that the probability of Bolsonaro's reelection decreased.

[buritobr]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

[buritobr]

I was talking about coincidences between 2002 and 2022, and not about equivalence between the 2022 french presidential election and the 2022 brazilian presidential election. As I wrote in a thread in International General Discussion, Jair Bolsonaro is not Marine Le Pen. And Lula is not Emmanuel Macron. If you want to make a paralell between Lula and a french candidate in 2022, I think he is like Anne Hidalgo on domestic policy and Mélenchon on foreign policy.

[buritobr]

Leonardo di Caprio tweeted in order to give an incentive for 16-17 year old Brazilians to register to vote. For this age group, voting is allowed, but not mandatory.
https://twitter.com/LeoDiCaprio/status/1519767667363790848

[buritobr]

Lula and Alckmin listening to the anthem "The International" in the opening of the PSB congress https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_UzyczyaJA

It would be weird to think 2 years ago about Alckmin listening to the International. And I don't know why did PSB decide to use this anthem. PSB is a center-left party closer to the center than to the left.

[buritobr]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

I don't know UP very well. PSTU is trotskist. PCB is orthodox marxist-leninist.

[buritobr]

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

I don't know UP very well. PSTU is trotskist. PCB is orthodox marxist-leninist.

Thank you Losurdo-impersonator for your wiki insight

Exactly how do the PCB, UP, and PSTU differentiate themselves. I understand the latter two are more Afro-Brazilian in member composition and are more active in protest movements, but outside of this I do not have enough information to see the differences nor can I read Portuguese.

All of them are basically non-existent in terms of political representation, although figures like Jones Manoel (PCB) have been giving parties like PCB more visibility to a younger audience more recently.

UP is the youngest, formed in 2016 and I think it has more of a XXI century interpretation of socialism. It doesn’t see China as a socialist country for example, although it takes inspiration on the revolutionary organization. It was formed with the mobilization of 4 different groups:

- Movimento de Lutas nos Bairros, Vilas e Favelas (MLB), which acts on the housing issues, so that it isn’t something accessible only to the rich
- Movimento Luta de Classes, focused on unionism matters
- Movimento de Mulheres Olga Benário, focused on feminist matters
- União da Juventude Rebelião (UJR), involved with young university student movements

PCB is the oldest communist party in Brazil, I think. They and PCdoB (now just a PT sidekick) used to be the same thing. It identifies itself as Marxist-Leninist as burito said. Internally they defend a “Democratic centralism” where different views are presented and after a wide debate the party adopts their positioning and the militants must embrace the party positions. It’s different from what you see in PT/PSOL where there are multiple ideological brands running on the inside.

PSTU is Trotskyist and defends a State without parties. In commercials they tell elections are a farce and what the country needs is a revolution. While UP would embrace every socialist experience through an updated modern understanding and PCB can have some Stalinist apologists on the inside, PSTU can be very critical of other left-wing movements. It was somewhat more open to Dilma’s impeachment.

I genuinely prefer UP and PCB over PSTU tbh, But I don’t count them out: If there’s someone I like in the elections, I will consider them. PSTU, like most trotskyists, aren’t very trustworthy.

A 4th far-left party is PCO, another Marxist party, but I don’t consider them as much of an option to substitute PSOL when voting. A running joke online is how PCO often aligns with Bolsonaro voters on many controversial issues, such as online restriction of speech. When Bolsonarists were banned/condemned for spreading hate or whatever else that pushed institution limits, PCO DEFENDED them with the argument these same measures can and will be used to censor the left and the workers fight.

My question was more in the way of how they sell themselves. Why don’t you trust Trotskyist parties?

What a coincidence you mentioned Losurdo. Jones Manoel, the famous PCB youtuber, is a fan of Losurdo.

[buritobr]

Lula's comment about the Russia vs Ukraine War was not good, but it was only one of many topics in the interview in Time.
And I don't think a bad comment in May is an important issue for an election in October.

[buritobr]

Is there ANYONE in Brazil for whom the position candidates take on the war between Russia and Ukraine is a vote determining issue?

No

[buritobr]

It's official: Luke Skywalker is endorsing Lula
https://twitter.com/MarkHamill/status/1521957202323419137

[buritobr]

2022 presidential poll Ipespe/XP Investimentos

1st round - Stimulated scenario

Lula (Worker's Party) 44%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 31%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party)  8%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
Janones (Forward) 2%
Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 1%
Vera (Socialist Unified Worker's Party) 0%
Eymael (Christian Democracy) 0%
Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union) 0%

Runoff:

Lula 54% vs. Bolsonaro 34%
Lula 52% vs. Ciro 25%
Lula 55% vs. Doria 19%
Ciro 45% vs. Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 37%

The race is stable now.
Ipespe is the poll made by cell phone which shows results more favorable to Lula. But there is no suspiction of bias. Ipespe's owner is XP, a company which works in the stock market, and we are sure that XP is not pro-PT.
Other polls made by cell phone show Lula's lead, even though by smaller margin. But the race is stable according the other polls too.

[buritobr]

Today, there was the event to launch the Lula/Alckmin ticket. This event is similar to the national conventions of the major parties in the US. The difference is that there was no internal election in the PT, no primary. Lula was a consensus.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/brazils-lula-courts-centrists-unofficial-campaign-launch-84565040