Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

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I am just coming back from Lula's rally at downtown Rio de Janeiro. There were ~70K people
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1545195538584408070

Besides Lula, other politicians who gave speeches were running mate Geraldo Alckmin, candidate to governor of Rio de Janeiro Marcelo Freixo, candidate to senator of Rio de Janeiro André Ceciliano and leaders of left-wing parties.

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A tragedy happened in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná

A municipal guard was celebrating his 50th birthday at his home. He is a Lula voter, and so, the decoration of his fest was related to PT.

A federal policeman who is a far-right extremist was walking, he saw the PT flags in that house, than he entered the house, shot the guard and tried to shoot other people there. He also shouted "here is Bolsonaro". The guard could still shoot his murder, but he died later.

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A tragedy happened in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná

A municipal guard was celebrating his 50th birthday at his home. He is a Lula voter, and so, the decoration of his fest was related to PT.

A federal policeman who is a far-right extremist was walking, he saw the PT flags in that house, than he entered the house, shot the guard and tried to shoot other people there. He also shouted "here is Bolsonaro". The guard could still shoot his murder, but he died later.

Any hope Lula dissolves the fascistic federal police or, at the very least, fires the far-right elements?

The president of the republic can appoint the directors of the federal organizations, but the permanent employees who were admitted in a public contest based on a written exam cannot be fired. This is good because there is a professional bureacracy. Otherwise, all the staff would change in every 4 years and the public organizations would work for the ruling party.

Unfortunately, most of the permanent staff in the federal police and in the army, navy and air force have far-right ideas.
But in the civil public service, most of the permanent employees are on the left of the average of the population. In Ibama, the organization in charge of the environment protection, the permanent staff was very useful to avoid the biggest damages caused by Bolsonaro.

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Funk singer Anitta endorsed Lula. PT considered this endorsement very important because Anitta was never PT supporter never left-wing before. Her vote is only an anti-Bolsonaro voter. So, she is more willing to have dialogue with unusual PT voters. Older singers like Chico Buarque, Zelia Duncan, Beth Carvalho, Caetano Veloso, Gilberto Gil almost always support the left, most of their audience is left-wing. Their endorsement is important but it bring nothing new. It's like Eddie Vedder, Thom Yorke, Bruce Springsteen, Tom Morello and Roger Waters supporting the left, as they always do.

There is some relation between music genres and political views in Brazil. Although Anitta wasn't usually a leftist, most of the funk musicians and fans are left-wing. Rap, hip hop, samba are also more related to the left. Country and gospel are related to the right. Rock is split. Many rock singers were left-wing when they were young in the 1980s and nowadays they are very right-wing. But other rock singers are left-wing.

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Marcelo Freixo, the candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro endorsed by Lula, posted a picture comparing Brazilian politics to Harry Potter universe.
Marcelo Freixo compared himself to Harry Potter, Lula to Dumbledore, Jair Bolsonaro to Voldemort and Claudio Castro, the candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro endorsed by Bolsonaro, to Draco Malfoy.

We can see the picture here https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1549472174725021696

This kind of propaganda has the "young" people as target. People who read the first Harry Potter book when it was released are close to 35.

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Datafolha July 27-28 2022
1st round (comparing to Datafolha in June)
Lula 47% (0)
Jair Bolsonaro 29% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (0)
Simone Tebet 2% (+1)
André Janones 1% (-1)
Pablo Marçal 1% (0)
Vera Lúcia 1% (0)
Blank/nulified/none 6% (-1)
Undecided 3% (-1)

Runoff
Lula 55% (-2)
Jair Bolsonaro 35% (+1)

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/ very good 28% (+2)
Regular 26% (0)
Bad/vert bad 45% (-2)

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That 45% bad/very bad figure is quite, um, bad, for Bolsonaro.

Unfortunately, this figure is not so bad for Bolsonaro. Usually, almost all voters who consider an incumbent good/very good vote for him/her in the 1st round and many voters who consider an incumbent regular vote for him/her in the runoff.
The possibility of reelection was introduced by the Constitution Amendment 16 from 1997. Since this date, all the incumbent presidents who ran for reelection were reelected (Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva, Dilma Rousseff). Most of the incumbent governors and mayors who ran for reelection were reelected. The rule of a 4 year term and possibility of 1 reelection is like a 8 year term with a recall in the middle.
Probably, Bolsonaro will loose. But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for Lula.

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Don't understand why Brazilian pollesters don't remove the blank/invalid vote from their projections. Without them, Lula is at 49-52% in the first round, and would be elected.

However, and although the number of undecided voters is very low compared with previous elections as both main candidates are deeply polarizing, I would like to wait for polling during mid September to see if the current trend continues. I believe things will not change a lot till then, but, who knows.

I prefer not removing the blank/invalid vote. This information is important.
I think the calculation of valid vote is important only in the poll of Saturday evening in the eve of the vote.

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It's confirmed now: Senator from Mato Grosso do Sul Simone Tebet and her running mate senator from São Paulo Mara Gabrili will be the center-right ticket. This ticket still has 2%. The probability to win is close to zero, in a election which is polarized between Lula and Bolsonaro.
This is a 2 woman ticket, while Lula and Bolsonaro have 2 man tickets.
During the 2010s, many left-wing tickets for president, governor and mayor tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But in 2022, the left-wing candidates considered that non left-wing running mates were necessary, and the center-right politicians they found to be their running mates were white men too. Lula's running mate is former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin. In the state of Rio de Janeiro, the running mate of the left-wing governor candidate Marcelo Freixo is César Maia, a former mayor of the city of Rio de Janeiro.

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Don't understand why Brazilian pollesters don't remove the blank/invalid vote from their projections. Without them, Lula is at 49-52% in the first round, and would be elected.

However, and although the number of undecided voters is very low compared with previous elections as both main candidates are deeply polarizing, I would like to wait for polling during mid September to see if the current trend continues. I believe things will not change a lot till then, but, who knows.

I prefer not removing the blank/invalid vote. This information is important.
I think the calculation of valid vote is important only in the poll of Saturday evening in the eve of the vote.

I like to calculate the valid vote as curiosity to know whether we would have a runoff or not if the election was today, but you’re right that this is useless because this can easily change until the actual election.

TV media usually does this as well, they share all vote distributions up until the election and only with the final poll on the eve of the election they show the valid votes more front and center. Same thing with the Exit Polls on the Election Day.

I don't know if there will be exit polls this year. These polls are becoming less important, since electronic vote proceeding is very fast. Datafolha doesn't conduct exit polls since long time ago. Ibope used to have the exit polls, but this pollster was replaced by Ipec, I don't know if Ipec will conduct exit polls.
Proceeding in 2022 will probably be faster. Voting precints at Brasília time zone will close at 5pm, precints at Mato Grosso time zone will close at 4pm, precints at Acre time zone will close at 3pm. So, all the proceeding will start at 5pm at Brasília time zone.

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Bolsonaro’s old party Brazil Union’s nominee Luciano Bivar has been replaced with Soraya Thronicke.

She seems to be standard right wing. Does she have a chance of making the runoff?

Simone Tebet is the strongest center-right candidate, but even her has very low probability to go to the runoff

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Impossible to be sympathetic towards PT when you’re from Rio. Now they are breaking the alliance with Freixo for Governor because Molon (same party as Freixo) is running for senate and they feel entitled to have their candidate as the alliance option in exchange of their support of Freixo.

In every other state, candidates bow down to PT all the freaking time when they know they have the weaker chances. In Rio, Freixo + Molon are clearly much better options with a potential André Ceciliano doesn’t have.

I’m 100% not voting on that party for any position other than president (and even for that, I’m still kinda split), because the options for the party in Rio are specially awful, although consistent with their track record.

A Marcelo Freixo governor, Alessandro Molon senator ticket would be too narrow for Lula in Rio de Janeiro, since both have their biggest supporting base in the middle class of the city of Rio de Janeiro. There is the danger of Bolsonaro build a large margin in the periphery of the metropolitan region and in the countryside. According to the recent polls, Lula is leading in the capital of the state, Bolsonaro is leading in the countryside and there is a tie in the periphery of the metropolitan region.
It's understandable PT deciding for a candidate for the senate who comes from "Baixada Fluminense" (the periphery of the metropolitan region). PT had >2/3 of Baixada in the runoff in 1989, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014 and Bolsonaro had >2/3 in 2018. PT considers André Ceciliano is important to bring the Baixada voters back to Lula.
PT and PSB decided to share the races in the whole country. PT doesn't have a candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro and senator of São Paulo, PSB doesn't have a candidate for governor of São Paulo.
Still, the decision of the local office of PT in Rio de Janeiro to break with the PSB was very stupid. Good news that, today, the national office of the PT decided to keep the alliance with the PSB and support Marcelo Freixo.

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Today, there was the end of the deadline for the party conventions to decide the tickets for president, governor and senator. The official campaign time starts on August 16th.

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Today, there were the first TV debates of the candidates to state governors

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Since UB and Novo are very close to Bolsonaro, I considered the possibility of the real intent of these parties to have candidates, Soraya Thronicke and Filipe d'Ávila, is spliting the non-Bolsonaro conservative vote, avoid Simone Tebet concentrating all of them, and securing that Bolsonaro will go to the runoff. But this is not necessary: Tebet won't grow anyway, and Bolsonaro will go to the runoff, unless Lula already wins in the 1st round.

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Quaest Poll, state of São Paulo, August 5th-8th

Governor
1st round
Fernando Haddad (PT, endorsed by Lula): 34%
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB, incumbent governor, center-right): 14%
Tarcísio Freitas (Rep, endorsed by Bolsonaro): 14%
Others: 6%
None: 19%
Undecided: 13%
Runoff
Haddad 44%, Tarcísio 31%
Haddad 41%, Tarcísio 32%

Senator
Marcio França (PSB, endorsed by Lula): 29%
Marcos Pontes (PL, endorsed by Bolsonaro): 12%
Janaína Paschoal (PRTB, she endorses Bolsonaro but she is not endorsed by him): 10%

Marcos Pontes was the Brazilian first astronaut. He traveled to the ISS in a Russian spaceship in 2006 https://www.space.com/1688-russia-agrees-launch-brazil-astronaut-iss.html
He was Bolsonaro's minister of science between 2019 and 2022

President
1st round
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 35%
Ciro Gomes 7%
Simone Tebet 3%
Others 2%
None 9%
Undecided 6%
Runoff
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 40%

In the runoff in São Paulo in 2018, Bolsonaro had 68% and Fernando Haddad had 32%. It is not necessary to win in São Paulo to win the presidential election. Juscelino Kubitschek 1955, Lula 2006, Dilma Rousseff 2010&2014 won the presidential election without winning São Paulo.
However, São Paulo has 22% of the Brazilian population, it is the most populous state, and since the Northeast and the North won't swing to the left in 2022, it is important for Lula at least a tie in São Paulo.

Full data here: http://blog.quaest.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GENIALQUAESTAGO22SP.pdf

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Quaest Poll, state of Minas Gerais, August 6th-9th

Governor
1st round
Romeu Zema (Novo, incumbent governor, close to Bolsonaro): 46%
Alexandre Khalil (PSD, endorsed by Lula): 24%
Runoff
Zema 55%, Khalil 29%

President
1st round
Lula 42%
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Runoff
Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 37%

These numbers are still good for Lula, since Minas Gerais is the second most populous state, concentrates 11% of the Brazilian population, and since 1989, all the winners of presidential elections won in Minas Gerais. The margins in this state are very close to the national margins. It's a bellwheter state. There is one good news for Bolsonaro: the gap was 18% in July according to Quaest, and now the gap is 9%.
However, I observed that this sample was somehow biased. 48% of the people who answered this polls voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff 2018, 25% voted for Haddad, 11% didn't vote or were not voters yet, 10% nulified their votes, 3% didn't answer. The share of the 2018 vote in this poll is 65.8% for Bolsonaro, 34.2% for Haddad. But since the actual result of 2018 in Minas Gerais was 58.8% for Bolsonaro and 41.2% for Haddad, we can estimate that this sample is biased to the right, and Lula's gap now could be even bigger.

Full data of the poll here http://blog.quaest.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/QUAESTGENIALAGO22MG.pdf

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In the electronic voting machine, people type the number of the candidate, the name and the photo of the candidate appear on the screen, and then people type the green button in order to confirm the vote.
The presidential candidates already sent their photos which will appear in the machines.
We can see the photos here https://twitter.com/eixopolitico/status/1557362380337709058

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Rio Grande do Sul
Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 7%, Simone Tebet 2%

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FSB poll was released. 1st voting round:

Lula 45% (+4)
Bolsonaro 34% (=)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 2% (-1)
Other Candidates Combined 2% (-3)
Blank/Null/None 6% (-1)
Undecided 2%

Runoff:

Lula 53% (+2)
Bolsonaro 38% (-1)
Blank/Null/None 8% (=)
Undecided 2% (=)

FSB poll from today shows a different trend from the more recent poll showing Bolsonaro gaining ground with low-income voters thanks to the Auxílio Brasil economic support.

Because last Quaest polls showed him growing a lot in Minas Gerais and São Paulo and got me really worried. Let’s wait to see what the IPEC poll will point towards to. They’re realized less regularly so I guess Bolsonaro will grow at least a small bit compared to weeks / months ago. But as long as Lula maintains himself around 50% in the valid vote (this new FSB poll puts him around 49%), nothing really changes that much.

Because the vibe here is starting to be there will be a runoff vote thanks to the populist oriented electoral measures from Bolsonaro related to deflation (Bolsonaro basically cut fuel taxes, which reduced gas prices A LOT) and a large increase of Social Benefits (increase of Auxílio Brasil given to lower classes will be lasting only until December for the simple sake of this election, in hopes of boosting Bolsonaro’s popularity with segments that are more likely to vote for Lula, diminishing the high margin he has with this electorate).

We have to be worried about the Quaest poll in São Paulo only if we pay attenction to the film, because the photo is very good. We see a growing trend for Bolsonaro and a declining trend for Lula, but if the moment stops here and Lula has a 2 point margin, it's very good for Lula. PT in presidential elections in São Paulo is like the Democrats in Kansas, the SPD in Bavaria, the Labour in southern England, the PS and LFI in Cote'd'Azur.

And this evening, Ipec showed much better numbers for Lula in São Paulo

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Campaign finally starts today. Yesterday, there was the deadline to register the candidates in the TSE (Electoral Supreme Court)

The candidates for president of Brazil and their running mates are

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, PCdoB, PV, Solidariedade, PSOL, Rede, PSB, Agir, Avante)
Geraldo Alckmin
President 2003-2010, leader of a broad alliance of left and center-left parties

Jair Bolsonaro (PL, PP, Republicanos)
Braga Netto
Far-right incumbent president seeking reelection

Ciro Gomes (PDT)
Ana Paula Matos
Former governor of Ceará (1991-1994), candidate for president in 1998, 2002, 2018. Center-left, former ally of PT, but now, bad relations with PT

Simone Tebet (MDB, PSDB, Cidadania, Podemos)
Mara Gabrilli
Senator of Mato Grosso do Sul, candidate of the biggest center-right parties

Felipe d'Avila (Novo)
Tiago Mitraud
Right, supporting small government

Soraya Thronicke (UB)
Marcos Cintra
Center-right

José Maria Eymael (DC)
João Barbosa Bravo
Christian Democrat. Candidate in almost all presidential elections of the New Republic. Famous for the song "Eeeymael, o democrata cristão"

Roberto Jefferson (PTB)
Kelton da Silva Souza
Right. Former Bolsonaro's ally. Former Lula's ally before the scandal of vote buying in 2005.

Vera Lúcia Salgado (PSTU)
Raquel Tremembé
Far-left. Trotskist.

Sophia Manzano (PCB)
Antônio Alves da Silva Junior
Far-left. Orthodox marxist-leninist.

Léo Péricles (UP)
Samara Martins
Far-left.

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Other states according to Ipec

Distrito Federal
Bolsonaro 40%, Lula 32%, Ciro Gomes 9%

Pernambuco
Lula 63%, Bolsonaro 22%, Ciro Gomes 4%

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Ipec polls in state capitals

São Paulo (São Paulo)
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 24%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 4%

Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro)
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 6%, Simone Tebet 1%

Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais)
Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 3%, Simone Tebet 1%

Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul)
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 26%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 3%

In the South and in the Southeast, the state capitals are polling much more to the left than the whole states

Recife (Pernambuco)
Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 4%, Simone Tebet 3%

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Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

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Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

Here https://www.estadao.com.br/politica/eleicoes/agregador-pesquisa-eleitoral-2022/?cargo=presidencial&modalidade=todas&regiao=todas