Bush 428, Carter 110
Reagan was the better campaigner, so Carter would have gotten more votes, but Anderson pulled a lot of his support from traditional Republicans who couldn't stomach Reagan so a good deal of his votes would have gone to Bush in a Bush/Carter matchup, so the northeastern states you have going to Carter would have stayed in the GOP column because of that.
Ford almost carried AR in 1976; I think that would have been solidly for Bush.
TN and KY might have as well. I'd say Bush/Carter at 434/104 to 453/85. Still a blowout.
Poll
