1980 - George H.W. Bush vs. Jimmy Carter

[A18]

What if Bush won the nomination?

[nini2287]

Bush 354, Carter 184

[TheCommentator]

Actually it would have looked like this

[afleitch]

D.C voting for Bush? Funnily enough I was on a website today  ( http://www.lwv.org/media/debates/1980.html ) that had several presidential and candidate debates from the 1980's and I was watching the Republican Primary debate from 1980, and I was impressed by John Anderson (who in retrospect saw sense) and George H.W Bush who was the only candidate apart from Anderson who supported the ERA. This was before Bush lost the nomination and before he was swallowed by Reagan. Despite liking Carter, I could have seen myself backing Bush in 1980 had he won. He was more centrist then than he ever was as veep or President. Oh an afterthought. Ronald Reagan was very funny and on form, but had little substance and Philip Crane was....interesting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Bush 354, Carter 184

Bush 428, Carter 110

Reagan was the better campaigner, so Carter would have gotten more votes, but Anderson pulled a lot of his support from traditional Republicans who couldn't stomach Reagan so a good deal of his votes would have gone to Bush in a Bush/Carter matchup, so the northeastern states you have going to Carter would have stayed in the GOP column because of that.

[Giant Saguaro]

Bush and Bush would have won easily.

Too bad, Jimmy Carter was the last nice guy President we had (and there probably won't be any more) so my vote now is harder to cast for Bush than it would have been in '80. But then I remember that nice guys don't always make the best leaders, unfortunately, and then it becomes an easy vote.

[J. J.]

Bush 354, Carter 184

Bush 428, Carter 110

Reagan was the better campaigner, so Carter would have gotten more votes, but Anderson pulled a lot of his support from traditional Republicans who couldn't stomach Reagan so a good deal of his votes would have gone to Bush in a Bush/Carter matchup, so the northeastern states you have going to Carter would have stayed in the GOP column because of that.

Ford almost carried AR in 1976; I think that would have been solidly for Bush.  

TN and KY might have as well.  I'd say  Bush/Carter at 434/104 to 453/85.  Still a blowout.

[Nym90]

Bush 354, Carter 184

Bush 428, Carter 110

Reagan was the better campaigner, so Carter would have gotten more votes, but Anderson pulled a lot of his support from traditional Republicans who couldn't stomach Reagan so a good deal of his votes would have gone to Bush in a Bush/Carter matchup, so the northeastern states you have going to Carter would have stayed in the GOP column because of that.

Ford almost carried AR in 1976; I think that would have been solidly for Bush.  

TN and KY might have as well.  I'd say  Bush/Carter at 434/104 to 453/85.  Still a blowout.

Ford lost AR by 30 points in 1976. Carter almost won it in 1980 against Reagan, losing by less than a point.

[weallbleed]

Bush would win. Really the only way Carter could've won was if for some reason the Republicans decided to bring up Barry Goldwater again.

As for who I'd vote for, without hindsight Bush. With hindsight Carter, since no Bush I as President means no Bush II.

[James Falconer]

Hola!

The map would look like the Reagan map, maybe Carter would of picked up one or two states, but anyone could of beaten Carter that year. Even Richard Nixon.

For those of us who lived in 1980, 1980 was an awful year. Iran hostage crisis, Russians invading Afghanistan, high unemployment, high inflation, gas lines, The Cuban boat lift (Marielle?), not being able to go the Olympics, Carter firing senior cabinet members, the list went on and on and on.

Carter's approval rating once stood at 24%. Nixon never scored that low. GWB's worst rating is 45%. Carter was a horrible President and the American people were just itching for that election to remove him.

FALCON

[Ronald Reagan]

Carter-97
Bush-441

[Ats]

Carter, though Bush probably would have won.

[DanielX]

Bush would win. Really the only way Carter could've won was if for some reason the Republicans decided to bring up Barry Goldwater again.

As for who I'd vote for, without hindsight Bush. With hindsight Carter, since no Bush I as President means no Bush II.

Nope.



Goldwater/Bush: 300
Carter/Mondale: 238

If Goldwater never ran in '64, it would be a landslide. Still, never underestimate how reputations can be healed by time, effort, apologies, and an unpopular incumbent as opposed to a popular one. Think public opinion of Gerald Ford in 1976 and compare to 1980, note the big jump. For that matter, I think Harold Stassen could've defeated Carter too. And Gerald Ford. Probably the only Republican that Carter could've beaten (aside from the real wingnuts) would be Richard Nixon. Time can't heal everything, y'know.

Oh, and George Bush would've wiped the floor with Carter. Not quite as much as Reagan, but...



Bush-Dole: 400
Carter-Mondale: 138