National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

More denial. 

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.

The most popular method with which people donate to PBS during pledge drives? Credit card. So it appears that adding debt to pay for quality, non-corporate, safe, educational entertainment for your children is indeed worth borrowing for. It provides a much better return on investment than borrowing trillions on a war most Americans were never sold on in the first place.

And they pay their bills. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

Interestingly, Obama approval is at 50/49 (u).

[J. J.]

Gallup

Obama-49 (NC)
Romney-46(NC)

The bounce may already be receding, that was quick...

The was a possibly heavy Obama sample in the approval poll.

Also remember, the sample is 4/7 pre debate.

[J. J.]

Gallup should start a 3-day likely voter model soon, instead of their 7-day RV tracker and adult approval tracker.

It's only 4 weeks until the election ...

I wholeheartedly agree.

[J. J.]

It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

I'm not seeing any evidence of a drop off.  It might have moved Romney closer, but not over the top.

[J. J.]

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

Seven day sample, so there could be a high pre-debate one in there.

[J. J.]

Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.

Mitt must've had some huge leads Thursday and Friday then. Democrats were probably to sad to pick up the phone.

He didn't have a great day Thursday.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

That methodology is really bad.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

That methodology is really bad.

How so?

Lumping all the "swing states" together.

[J. J.]

D+8

Junk poll !

Good one! 

[J. J.]

Apparently Obama was back to a 50-45 margin in RV in Gallup on Sunday and Monday, erasing Romney's debate bounce. We'll see if that holds.

Two problems.  No sourcing and registered voters.

[J. J.]

The RV polls are normalizing and LV polls are not. 

This is an enthusiasm gap.  Republicans were pumped up by the debate and Democrats were somewhat dismayed by Obama's performance.  Hence, when you screen them for your LV model, more Republicans are qualifying as LVs after the debate. 

I think a good chunk out of the swing is due to this. 

That is born out with Rasmussen's strongly approve/disapprove numbers.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  48 (u)

Obama:  47 (-1)

[J. J.]

It seems that instead of the Romney bounce receding, it's a short lived Obama bounce that is receding.

Job number bounce is my guess.  It was a speed bump, but that was it.

The job numbers were as good as could be expected, but the underlying situation is that this was not an improvement over GWB.  Since taking office Obama has improved unemployment and job creation may not have kept pace with population growth.  The message is "Forward, to January 2009."

[J. J.]

Day 2:

Romney 49
Obama 44


Great news! Obama continues his collapse with whites.

R +2, O -1

This poll has a strong R lean, but the trending is what to watch.

[J. J.]

Gallup (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1

[J. J.]

Gallup (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

[J. J.]

So RAND, Reuters and IBD have the debate bounce fading, but Ras and Gallup have no change.  Interesting.

There was bobbing around on Gallup's registered voter numbers.

[J. J.]

UPI shows Romney 49, Obama 46, if we're talking newspaper polls in general.  That was unchanged. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  48, +1

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely)

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  46, -1

Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, +1

Disapprove:  45, -2

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

[J. J.]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

We can do better?  

Just throwing it out there, not advocating it.