National Tracking Poll Thread

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I have to say Lief, you panic awfully quickly.

It's officially time to panic.

[NVGonzalez]

I have to say Lief, you panic awfully quickly.

It's officially time to panic.

[Umengus]

D+8

Junk poll !

[opebo]

RACE
White   
35%
56%
8%


3 polls now show Romney winning whites by 20 points.

Proving MY point - racism is what Romney's winning upon.

[cinyc]

Proving MY point - racism is what Romney's winning upon.

Contrary to your belief, it is not racist to vote against Obama.  There are hundreds of reasons to do so that have absolutely nothing to do with race.  If everything is always about race, Obama wouldn't have been elected in the first place.

[Likely Voter]

Is this going to be a daily poll? if so shouldnt it be in the national tracking thread?

[J. J.]

D+8

Junk poll !

Good one! 

[Lief 🗽]

Apparently Obama was back to a 50-45 margin in RV in Gallup on Sunday and Monday, erasing Romney's debate bounce. We'll see if that holds.

[J. J.]

Apparently Obama was back to a 50-45 margin in RV in Gallup on Sunday and Monday, erasing Romney's debate bounce. We'll see if that holds.

Two problems.  No sourcing and registered voters.

[Lief 🗽]

What do you mean "no sourcing"? And Gallup's likely voter screen is ridiculous. If they had had it in September, Romney would have likely been leading for most of the month.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The RV polls are normalizing and LV polls are not. 

This is an enthusiasm gap.  Republicans were pumped up by the debate and Democrats were somewhat dismayed by Obama's performance.  Hence, when you screen them for your LV model, more Republicans are qualifying as LVs after the debate. 

I think a good chunk out of the swing is due to this. 

[J. J.]

The RV polls are normalizing and LV polls are not. 

This is an enthusiasm gap.  Republicans were pumped up by the debate and Democrats were somewhat dismayed by Obama's performance.  Hence, when you screen them for your LV model, more Republicans are qualifying as LVs after the debate. 

I think a good chunk out of the swing is due to this. 

That is born out with Rasmussen's strongly approve/disapprove numbers.

[Likely Voter]

What's interesting is that the big swing towards Romney seems to be more related to an LV swing, RVs are staying the same. The Gallup RV today is 49/46 or Obama +3, it was 49/45 (Obama +4) a week ago. The same is true for the Ipsos poll. While LV has gone from Obama+5 to tied, RV has remained exactly the same as Obama +3. This, along with the party ID switches seen in other polls, shows how what is changing is not people switching from Romney to Obama but a surge in Romney voter enthusiasm and a reduction in Obama voter enthusiasm. This is also born out by Obama approval remaining relatively stable over the week as well (and still in the 49/50 range).

So the question is: will this new enthusiasm gap be the new normal?

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  48 (u)

Obama:  47 (-1)

[GMantis]

It seems that instead of the Romney bounce receding, it's a short lived Obama bounce that is receding.

[J. J.]

It seems that instead of the Romney bounce receding, it's a short lived Obama bounce that is receding.

Job number bounce is my guess.  It was a speed bump, but that was it.

The job numbers were as good as could be expected, but the underlying situation is that this was not an improvement over GWB.  Since taking office Obama has improved unemployment and job creation may not have kept pace with population growth.  The message is "Forward, to January 2009."

[ajb]

Interesting observations this morning on Nate Cohn's twitter feed. It seems that most of the shifts in Rasmussen's numbers in the past month can be accounted for by African-American voters moving back and forth between Obama and undecided. Right now, Ras has Af-Am voters going 85-3 for Obama, with 12% undecided (vs. 3% undecided among all other voters).
Make of that what you will.

https://twitter.com/electionate

[Lief 🗽]

OBAMA'S BACK

RV: Obama 50% (+1), Romney 45% (-1)
LV: Romney 48% (-1), Obama 48% (+1)

[Yank2133]

Gallup

RV

Obama-50(+1)
Romney-45(-1)

LV

Romney-48(-1)
Obama-48(+1)

[Eraserhead]

OBAMA'S BACK

RV: Obama 50% (+1), Romney 45% (-1)
LV: Romney 48% (-1), Obama 48% (+1)

Groovy.

[Niemeyerite]

Yeeees

I have to post this somewhere, so here you have:

[krazen1211]

Day 2:

Romney 49
Obama 44


Great news! Obama continues his collapse with whites.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Day 2:

Romney 49
Obama 44


Great news! Obama continues his collapse with whites.

On the same day Obama leads by 4 in Florida, 4 in Ohio, and Ras shows him up by double digits in New Mexico? I don't think so, IBD.

[Tender Branson]

It's a 6-day tracker though, with about 120 people each day.

And from Oct. 4 to Oct. 9 on this one.

So, Rasmussen and Gallup should have the more up-to-date numbers.

[ajb]

In 2008, they consistently had McCain doing better than everyone else, insisting that the race was still close up till the end, when they suddenly allocated 2/3 of the undecideds to Obama, bringing their results to the average of all other pollsters at that point, and hitting the final margin to the nearest tenth of a percent. They had similar results in 2000/2004 as well, with Republicans overperforming relative to other polls till the last minute, when undecideds swung to the Democrat.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet.php?nr=1