National Tracking Poll Thread

[GMantis]

It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

[afleitch]

Jobs numbers may be having an effect. Obama's favourables are up and Rasmussen notes that consumer confidence moved up ten points once the numbers were released.

[Brittain33]

Rasmussen: Obama 48 (+1), Romney 48 (-1)

poor mittens

The internals krazen quoted about Romney being up 5 in Ohio are looking a little fishier this morning.

[J. J.]

It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

I'm not seeing any evidence of a drop off.  It might have moved Romney closer, but not over the top.

[afleitch]

It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

I'm not seeing any evidence of a drop off.  It might have moved Romney closer, but not over the top.

Looking at Rassmussen and working back, when last Tuesday fell off and the Wed-Fri sample favoured Romney by 49 to 47 that means Romney had a huge advantage in the Friday sample which seems consistent with what pollsters like PP were saying. The Thursday to Saturday sample showed the margin as steady which means Obama probably had to have had a Saturday sample as good (relatively speaking) as his pre-debate Wednesday sample (he may have led that days sample). For the race to now be tied today it means that the Sunday sample had to been at least equally strong.

If Friday was a BIG sample for Romney (so much so that it caused most of the four point jump) then that sample falls off tomorrow. If Obama has an average to good day today then he is likely to take the lead tomorrow. If he as a very good day today he could find himself back up to a 2 point lead.

That would constitute, given what we know about Rasmussen a return to the status quo. Still all hypothetical of course.

[Torie]

Has this Gallup poll been noticed that has the race closing from a five point Obama lead to dead even?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Has this Gallup poll been noticed that has the race closing from a five point Obama lead to dead even?

That's just the three days after the debate, I believe. Romney got a huge bump from that sample but it'll be dropping off any day now.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll
Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

[xavier110]

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

Congrats on reelection Barack!

[Lief 🗽]

wow, Mitt Romney really, really sucks

[J. J.]

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

Seven day sample, so there could be a high pre-debate one in there.

[xavier110]

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

Seven day sample, so there could be a high pre-debate one in there.

That's obviously not what just boosted his numbers after Romney's strong post-debate day.

[Reds4]

Yesterday must have been a very good Obama day on both Rasmussen and Gallup

[Gass3268]

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

What polling firm is this?

[Yank2133]

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

What polling firm is this?

Gallup.

[Sbane]

What I am hearing from people who understand policy amongst my age group (not many of course) is that while Romney won the debate, he had no substance/lied. Add in a good jobs report and the numbers don't surprise me.

[Gass3268]

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.

What polling firm is this?

Gallup.

Thank you and awesome!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?

[Yank2133]

Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?

They are going with Gallup three day sample that showed a tied race.

[Oakvale]

Fellow Obama supporters, I will accept further accolades at a time convenient to you.

[opebo]

Fellow Obama supporters, I will accept further accolades at a time convenient to you.

About what?

[Eraserhead]

Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?

They are going with Gallup three day sample that showed a tied race.

A pretty pathetic move on their part. RCP is run by a bunch of Republican hacks and if they can cut corners to paint a prettier picture for Romney, they will. I'm not just throwing out accusations either, I've actually talked to the only liberalish guy who works there before.

[Gustaf]

Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.

Mitt must've had some huge leads Thursday and Friday then. Democrats were probably to sad to pick up the phone.

[J. J.]

Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.

Mitt must've had some huge leads Thursday and Friday then. Democrats were probably to sad to pick up the phone.

He didn't have a great day Thursday.