MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[KingSweden]

Who do y'all think would get appointed to Cochran's seat if he resigns?

Its Gregg Harper's if he wants it

Has Stacy Pickering fallen out of favor? Big last name in MS GOP circles

[KingSweden]

Cochran expected to resign in January according to Politico

Senator Presley

Mississippi politics will be All Shook Up.

Senator Presley will walk into the Senate in his Blue Suede Shoes, while MS Republicans check into Heartbreak Hotel and -

*tackled to ground*

[KingSweden]

Presumably McDaniel moves into this race and Wicker walks.

I think so too.

[KingSweden]

State Sen. Deborah Jeanne Dawkins should run for whichever seat Presley does not run for. She is to the left of the state but represents a right-leaning district outside of the metro area and has won three tough races with strong fundraising.

surely Mabus, if not Hood, would be better.

Mabus was unpopular 30 years ago when MS Dems we’re still dominant. He’s also very old.

[KingSweden]

State Sen. Deborah Jeanne Dawkins should run for whichever seat Presley does not run for. She is to the left of the state but represents a right-leaning district outside of the metro area and has won three tough races with strong fundraising.

surely Mabus, if not Hood, would be better.

Mabus would be easily tied to the Obama admin. Against McDaniel or somebody similar he would likely win but against Wicker or a different clean R he would not be the ideal candidate.

Hood I understand is far more interested in the governorship.

Dawkins appears to have experience winning over the right-leaning voters she would need to win statewide. Her State Senate district overlaps with multiple State House districts that are represented by R's, I can't find 2016 results by state Senate district but the county she is within voted for Trump 64-33 and the National Voter File estimates that the district is 40-33-27 R-D-I.

A second good reason Mabus wouldn’t be ideal

[KingSweden]

If he resigns, his successor won't be Harper.

Stacy Pickering?

[KingSweden]

Gov. Bryant says (again) that he won't appoint himself to replace Cochran: https://apnews.com/6a3985edb3ce4bf0bcab117d5de1d085

He’s been pretty consistent on this

[KingSweden]

Mike Espy is running: https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/03/05/espy-announces-run-cochran-senate-seat/397589002/

Espy running against wicker and Presley in the special is a great Democratic ticket. SP would not have enough of a chance to win realistically, in either race, and either race, but it would be at least competitive enough to drive up black turnout, and possibly put Presley over-the-top.

Democrats beating wicker is simply too far bridge to realistically ever cross

Espy can’t run against Wicker - it’s too late to file.

[KingSweden]

Delbert Hosemann, a potential Bryant appointee, says he's not running for reelection as SoS in 2019.  He was widely expected to run for LG in 2019, but his comments today left open the possibility of running for Cochran's seat in the special election. 

I’ll alwahs admire him telling Kobach to go jump in the Gulf.

[KingSweden]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My shocked face

[KingSweden]

What happened to Stacy Pickering, anyways?

[KingSweden]

She will be the 23rd woman and 6th female Republican in the U.S. Senate.

Anyone know what her general views are? What does she think about abortion, gay marriage, worker's rights, etc.?

I’d imagine she’s generally probably a typical Southern conservative on most issues.

[KingSweden]

The comparisons to AL-SEN will undoubtedly continue and are appropriate, but one thing to remember about that race was that Jones had almost four months as the Democratic nominee.  That span of time was crucial for organizations like the DSCC to get organized, fundraise, and advertise on Jones' behalf.  If Presley (or another credible Dem) gets into this race and Espy doesn't step-down, the DSCC's typical position would be to stay out until a Democratic candidate makes the runoff on November 7.  3 weeks definitely isn't enough time for the DSCC to lay the same kind of ground-work they did in AL in 2017.

I'm not really sure if the DSCC would play by the same set of rules since this is such a unique occurrence, but Espy might have screwed the Dems by being the first one in the race. 

This is actually a fair point. I wonder if Presley may avoid wandering in for that reason.

[KingSweden]

Joe Trippi, a seasoned Democratic operative who played an instrumental role in Alabama, has joined the Espy campaign. Anybody who hasn't listened to his interview with Ezra Klein after Doug Jones' upset should, he had lots of interesting insights.

Trippi is a big get... I thought he was working a House campaign in Texas, though?

[KingSweden]

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/16/poll-cindy-hyde-smith-mike-espy-neck-and-neck-mcdaniel-distant-third-senate-race/520331002/

Looks like Hyde-Smith might get her Trump endorsement after all. McDaniel's campaign seems to have completely sunk after her appointment.

Way too early to theorize that

[KingSweden]

Big?

https://www.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/993915123197661184

Espy sucked up all the oxygen

[KingSweden]

You know, I've really been disappointed in CHS' campaign and I don't like the idea of Gov. Bryant being able to "pick" our senator for what is probably the next 20-30 years.

So, I've decided that I will either be voting for Espy or McDaniel.  Espy is definitely closer to me ideologically and while I don't support McDaniel at all, a vote for him would be much more detrimental to CHS' chances of winning.

I wish Jason Shelton would have stayed-in.  I would definitely be supporting him and I know a lot of moderate Republicans who would be as well.

Better yet - if Brandon Presley had run