PA/MT/TN/RI could the dems win all four?

[Sam Spade]

Listed in order of probability, IMO:

PA
MT
RI (mainly because Langevin's not running)
TN

Of these, the only one I give better than a 50% chance right now is PA.

I would rate RI higher if there was a good challenger.  Whitehouse will not cut it, imo.  I'll give it about 20-25% chance right now.

MT is better, but once again the challenger determines everything there.  30-35% chance right now, because Burns is not the strongest of incumbents.  Talk to me again when we know the challenger.

TN is a long shot.  Ford will have problems getting out of the primary and will be a long shot to win the thing.  Most people outside of Tennessee don't understand how fundamentally conservative Tennessee has pulled with the GOPization of the Nashville suburbs.  5-10% max.

[Sam Spade]

You've also got to remember that in this day of nationalized Senate elections, it's very hard to win a state (that doesn't lean to you in Prez elections) where you don't already have an incumbent, it's tough to take over a seat when said seat is vacant, and it's nearly impossible to take out an incumbent.

[Sam Spade]

It doesn't really matter how much money Corker has, or even how good a candidate he is.  The fact is that mayors never get elected to the US Senate.  Even mayors from huge cities (Bob Anthony, Ron Kirk, Alex Penelas) routinely fail miserably in Senate runs.  They just don't have the statewide network or name ID to jump right into a Senate campaign. 

There are currently four US Senators whose highest previous elected office was mayor.  One was appointed to the Senate (Chafee), and two were nominees for Governor before trying to pull off a Senate run (Feinstein and Coleman). 

The one exception is Luger, who was mayor of Indianapolis in the early 1970's.  How many mayors have run for Senate and failed since them?  I have no idea, but I'd guess it was at least fifty.  If you want to get for Senate, get elected Governor, AG, congressman, or state senator first.

Ron Kirk was a bad mayor (of Dallas) and an even worse candidate, just as an FYI.

[Sam Spade]

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I remember about a week before the Election they showed a poll with Kirk and Cornyn at 49% each. I also remember laughing at the TV. Think he'll run again?

Not a chance.  And even if he didn't, there's pretty much no way he could pull more than he did in 2002.

I remember that poll.  Zogby conducted it.  Yet another reason why I'm not confident that Zogby understands how to poll Texas properly.

The only polling company that polled Texas pretty well in 2004 consistently was SurveyUSA, iirc.