PA/MT/TN/RI could the dems win all four?

[MissCatholic]

I think we have great chances in all four.

Chafee is under pressure from the White House.

Montana is becoming more liberal. burns has a low approval rating.

PA - Santorum surely cant win here. no matter how much he spends.

TN - Harold Ford could win the seat.

[Moooooo]

At best.  3/4.

[MissCatholic]

You would take that though.

whats the most important out of the three do you think. montana?

i know that pa is vital as the republicans want it so bad. but montana would be great for the democrats.

governor - dem
two sentors - dem.

[Sam Spade]

Listed in order of probability, IMO:

PA
MT
RI (mainly because Langevin's not running)
TN

Of these, the only one I give better than a 50% chance right now is PA.

I would rate RI higher if there was a good challenger.  Whitehouse will not cut it, imo.  I'll give it about 20-25% chance right now.

MT is better, but once again the challenger determines everything there.  30-35% chance right now, because Burns is not the strongest of incumbents.  Talk to me again when we know the challenger.

TN is a long shot.  Ford will have problems getting out of the primary and will be a long shot to win the thing.  Most people outside of Tennessee don't understand how fundamentally conservative Tennessee has pulled with the GOPization of the Nashville suburbs.  5-10% max.

[Moooooo]

whats the most important out of the three do you think. montana?

All of them are important, but beating Santorum would probably be the most significant victory.

[MissCatholic]

Future of the party - better if we won montana - make it interesting to see what republicans do in the state.

Montana is one of those states that has pot on sale.

[Sam Spade]

You've also got to remember that in this day of nationalized Senate elections, it's very hard to win a state (that doesn't lean to you in Prez elections) where you don't already have an incumbent, it's tough to take over a seat when said seat is vacant, and it's nearly impossible to take out an incumbent.

[MissCatholic]

Mn is going to be close proves your point.

[AuH2O]

Let me thi-- NO.

And stop spamming the boards, please.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm not feeling TN at all and RI only if Langevin runs.

[ian]

I'm going to be an optimist and say two.
I think we can take Santorum, but Burns is a minor possibility.  Who could take him on and beat him???
Rhode Island is now out of reach b/c good candidates dropped out, and I just don't believe that an African-American, no matter the moderacy, could win an election in Tennessee (as much as I would like to be proven wrong)
Oh, and, btw, I don't think that all of Tennessee is racist; I just think that there is enough of Tennesseeans that are racist to throw the election.

[ian]

Let me thi-- NO.

And stop spamming the boards, please.

Who?  If you're talking about this post, it is completely legitimate.

[Jake]

At best, you have a good chance at PA, a decent chance at MT with a good opponent, an outside shot at RI, and a longshot at TN.  At best, you pick up 2 seats.

[nini2287]

PA-Decent chance, there's already enough debate on this topic.

MT-Possible, especially with resurgent Dems + Burns seems to be slidiing

TN-Unlikely.  Ford is a very strong candidate, but Tennessee have gone too far to the right to elect a black Democrat

RI-I still think this is a good pickup, despite Kennedy/Langverin not running.  The Democrats are going to spend a lot more trying to pick up a seat, than the Republicans will defending Chafee.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A lot of people think Chafee may lose in a primary, although I haven't seen any polling on this. 

Ford is a longshot to win in TN against Hilleary, who strikes me as a pretty good candidate who has already run statewide.  He would have a close race against Bryant, and would probably defeat Corker...mayors NEVER succeed at getting elected to Senate.

Pennsylvania has been discussed enough already.
As for Montana, Burns would be vulnerable, but I'm not sure the Dems have a good enough candidate available.

[King]

Pennsylvania is going to be where the battle will be fought, no matter how close the other states are... Expect all President's horses and all the President's men to try and put Santorum back together again.

Casey's biggest problem is trying to keep Chairman Dean from rallying for him and alienating some voters.

[Smash255]

A lot of people think Chafee may lose in a primary, although I haven't seen any polling on this. 

Ford is a longshot to win in TN against Hilleary, who strikes me as a pretty good candidate who has already run statewide.  He would have a close race against Bryant, and would probably defeat Corker...mayors NEVER succeed at getting elected to Senate.

Pennsylvania has been discussed enough already.
As for Montana, Burns would be vulnerable, but I'm not sure the Dems have a good enough candidate available.

No way does Chafee lose in a primary.  1.  WHo does the GOP have in R.I strong enoough to knock off Chafee???  2 Rhode Island is a VERY Democratic state, any Republican other than a liberal Republican has absolutley no shot at the senate

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Again, I haven't seen any polling on a RI primary, and I was a little surprised by how seriously Laffey is being taken...Stuart Rothernberg says Laffey is the "favorite" to win the nomination.  By the conservatives almost managed to knock off Specter, and Chafee has given the GOP many more reasons to hate him...he even came out against Pres. Bush!

Also, according to exit polls, only 16% of RI voters consider themselve Republicans....that 16% must be pretty damn conservative!

I'd be interested to hear from the former Toomey supporters in the forum whether they would support a primary challenge against Chafee.

[bullmoose88]

What if, the dems have dropped out of the RI race because they think Chafee's gonna get knocked out in the GOP primary...only for Chafee to then jump ship?

[TheresNoMoney]

PA and RI are strong possibilities.
MT is a decent possibility with a strong candidate (Jon Tester?)
TN is a long-shot but a possibility.

We need to get at least 2 of the 4, and I would be very happy with 3 out of 4.

[Alcon]

PA is probably leaning Dem, narrowly.
MT depends on the candidate.
RI depends on how much Chafee angers both parties, but I lean no.
TN is probably a no, although there's lots of undecideds out there.

I think the chance is about 60% we'll win at least one of them.

[Jake]

No way does Chafee lose in a primary.  1.  WHo does the GOP have in R.I strong enoough to knock off Chafee???  2 Rhode Island is a VERY Democratic state, any Republican other than a liberal Republican has absolutley no shot at the senate

Governor Carcieri was rumored a few months back.  He could probably give Chafee a run for it.  He'd most likely lose to Brown or Kennedy and Langevin would beat him easily.

[King]

The Dems would have all 100 Senate seats, 538 House seats, and the Presidency had the Republicans kept from cheating.

[A18]

The Dems would have all 100 Senate seats, 538 House seats, and the Presidency had the Republicans kept from cheating.

That's interesting, seeing as there are only 435 House seats.

[King]

The Dems would have all 100 Senate seats, 538 House seats, and the Presidency had the Republicans kept from cheating.

That's interesting, seeing as there are only 435 House seats.

I know, but Texas is some how gerrymandered to have 103 more districts in hispanic neighborhood.