PUTTING YOUR OWN VIEWS ASIDE, WHO WILL REALLY WIN?

[Sam Spade]

I don't really know. Everyone (even Keystone Phil) seems to believe Casey has a lock but until we get campaigns up and running and see how things shake out with the media, debates, available resources (including money) and who wants it more... I just don't know.

I agree with NewFederalist here.   Predicting how candidates will react with the populace 18 months out from the election is never smart.

I also don't expect anyone to run out and concede here one bit.

[Sam Spade]

I think the real question is, how much vote will the Casey name-recogition thing bring him, and...

How much vote will the Senate incumbency thing bring Santorum?

They are both two powerful factors, and I wonder myself whether the two will cancel each other out.

Then this just turns into a typical incumbent-less Senate race.

Right now, I would call this race a toss-up, but just because Pennsylvania leans ever so slightly Democrat right now, I might be tempted to give a ever-so-slight advantage to Casey at this point.

But I probably won't.  There's still a lot of time left in this one, imo