Ohio Megathread

[LeBron]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.

First, Kasich isn't running for President.  He clearly wants too, but I think he's smart enough to recognize he'll always be poor man's Scott Walker. Secondly, I like Bob Hagan and all, but seriously?  There's no way he could win statewide against an extremely weak Republican, let alone Rob Portman (who while comically anonymous is still extremely disciplined, good at getting folks to buy into the "compassionate conservative" non-sense, and hardly a weak candidate).  Even in a heavily Democratic Presidential year, Hagan vs. Portman would be safe R barring a dead girl/live boy level scandal.  We have a number of stronger potential candidates.  Tim Ryan would be the best although I am not convinced he'll run.  Anyway, too early to say much about that race, but there's no way Hagan wins a Senate race (or any other statewide general election) in Ohio.

That's the thing though. If Walker goes down which is seeming all the more likely day by day and if Kasich survives, he'll be considered the conservative, pragmatic alternative to all of the other GOP hopefuls. If the RNC and the backing of huge billionaires isn't enough for him, he would still be glorified by conservatives in the campaign as the "comeback guy who balanced a budget in Ohio and DC all while cutting taxes." It seems like an opportunity he wouldn't pass up because this would be his last, realistic chance at the Presidency and unless he signs the pledge, I'm leaning towards him running.

As for Hagan, no you're right. I was just telling Julio that Hagan is a "decent" candidate compared to Portune, but Ohio Democrats can do MUCH better than that. Hagan is way too polarizing to ever get elected to statewide office let alone against someone who's Vice Chair for the NRSC and an all around great politician whose since recovered from his low approvals over SSM. I don't see Ryan giving up his House seat though to run against Portman, but he would be the top candidate when our other alternatives have either declined (Strickland, Cordray) or just aren't strong enough to beat Portman (Hagan, Brunner, Neuhardt, etc.).

[LeBron]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.

First, Kasich isn't running for President.  He clearly wants too, but I think he's smart enough to recognize he'll always be poor man's Scott Walker. Secondly, I like Bob Hagan and all, but seriously?  There's no way he could win statewide against an extremely weak Republican, let alone Rob Portman (who while comically anonymous is still extremely disciplined, good at getting folks to buy into the "compassionate conservative" non-sense, and hardly a weak candidate).  Even in a heavily Democratic Presidential year, Hagan vs. Portman would be safe R barring a dead girl/live boy level scandal.  We have a number of stronger potential candidates.  Tim Ryan would be the best although I am not convinced he'll run.  Anyway, too early to say much about that race, but there's no way Hagan wins a Senate race (or any other statewide general election) in Ohio.

That's the thing though. If Walker goes down which is seeming all the more likely day by day and if Kasich survives, he'll be considered the conservative, pragmatic alternative to all of the other GOP hopefuls. If the RNC and the backing of huge billionaires isn't enough for him, he would still be glorified by conservatives in the campaign as the "comeback guy who balanced a budget in Ohio and DC all while cutting taxes." It seems like an opportunity he wouldn't pass up because this would be his last, realistic chance at the Presidency and unless he signs the pledge, I'm leaning towards him running.

As for Hagan, no you're right. I was just telling Julio that Hagan is a "decent" candidate compared to Portune, but Ohio Democrats can do MUCH better than that. Hagan is way too polarizing to ever get elected to statewide office let alone against someone who's Vice Chair for the NRSC and an all around great politician whose since recovered from his low approvals over SSM. I don't see Ryan giving up his House seat though to run against Portman, but he would be the top candidate when our other alternatives have either declined (Strickland, Cordray) or just aren't strong enough to beat Portman (Hagan, Brunner, Neuhardt, etc.).

Brunner's not running and Neuhardt is quite possibly a weaker candidate than Hagan.  My understanding is that Cordray wants to be Governor, Strickland has already said he's not running for Senate in 2016, and Connie Pillich will have just beaten Mandel (which means the optics would be awful if she ran in 2016 given how much Mandel was criticized by the ODP for trying to office-hop when he ran for Senate).  I was thinking maybe someone like Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley or (if he gets elected State Auditor, which is quite possible) John Patrick Carney.  Canton Mayor William Healy and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley are both possibilities (the former more than the latter, imo).  Even soon-to-be Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish could work although I'm not sure about that one (although I'd rather see him as Cordray's LG pick if/when he runs for Governor in 2018).  Even David Pepper (who wouldn't actually win, I suspect) would be a far stronger candidate than Hagan.

As far as Kasich goes, Walker will still run after winning re-election by a closer-than-it-should-be margin.  And even if Walker loses and Portman doesn't run, Kasich still has no shot.  He won't get the backing of the Adelson/Koch/RNC establishment types.  He comes across as two abrasive, unpolished, etc when speaking and he can't really pull off the "aww schucks, lets just roll up our sleeves and get to work" schtick he's always spouting.  If he runs, he'll another Bill Richardson or a less entertaining Rick Perry.  One of those guys who might as well be yelling during each debate "hey, look at me!  Over here!  I'm important too!" while all the serious candidates largely ignore him.

Brunner IIRC is running for local judge or something like that now, so win or lose this year for her, she's still going to be talked about as that "dark horse" candidate who likely won't run. Neuhardt wouldn't be the worst out there of candidates and her main problems are age and her awful attitude around the media, but if FitzGerald is elected this year, she could be a strong candidate nonetheless who appeals to the liberal base and is very strong fundraiser. But yeah, there's no way Cordray, Strickland or Sutton runs. They all have positions with the federal government and I doubt either of them run for Governor or Senate unless the ODP begged them to which I doubt would be the case b/c if Kasich is re-elected, Pillich would already be the Democratic frontrunner to succeed him in 2018. Pepper himself probably won't run either after his embarrassing, double digit defeat this year and personally, we'll want to see Budish hold it out until at least 2018 to make a statewide run for office, but he does have a lot of more potential for sure in the Democratic Party.

As for your picks, Cranley would never run for the position. Maybe Whaley, but Cranley has angered state Democrats way too much during his tenure so far as Mayor to have any chance at winning the nomination. He had the backing of of the local Tea Party and business establishment in the 2013 race after opposing the much talked about streetcar project in Cincinnati and went as far as to host fundraisers with Republican donors. He wouldn't stand a chance. I wouldn't count too much on Carney's chances either considering he'll have just lost a statewide race two years before (Auditor has always been an unwinnable race for us since the days of Celeste + Carney's JobsOhio attack just won't cut it enough to take Yost down) and he isn't exactly the most charismatic of candidates out there.

You're right about Kasich when you say he's pretty bland and boring in his speeches and he hasn't really made any Sharmanesque comments besides "I'm focused on mah Ohio for now, but I'm flattered" and he does seem like the mellow, family-type guy. However, his silent ambition as of late can be contributed to his huge risk of being voted out of office this year, but after that, I would expect him to not only start legislating by a more far-right stature 2015 and on, but go back to his Tea Party firebrand type that he was oh so known for before deciding to run for Governor. Regarding his financial advantage, he's already gotten campaign contributions from the likes of David Koch so far and he's shown he's not a guy who will fight against the big corporations and big spending donors and will do whatever they say. He's by no means gaffe prone like Perry 2012 was, either and unlike Perry, he can talk about Ohio and his record in Congress.

[LeBron]

Adam, if Fitzgerald loses in November, will you change your username?

Probably not because win or lose, FitzGerald would have a future still in the ODP and I'm aware that he has shown interest in a run for something else down the road if his gubernatorial run is unsuccessful. He would be a top notch pick for the open Attorney General seat in 2018 or, if Turner loses, I could see him running for Secretary of State when Husted is term-limited out. Heck, I could even see him being a great replacement for Kaptur if Kaptur ends up deciding to retire within the next few cycles or maybe a run for HD-13 or SD-23 in 2018 when Antonio and Skindell are term-limited out of office, respectively. The way it seems now if he does lose, he'll likely take a break and go back to his law firm for awhile and come back about 4 years later for one of those aforementioned seats. I'm pretty confident of this.

Ha, just because you say Fitzgerald isnt gonna win doesnt mean thats the case.

Anyways your insults dont bother me. Its an R internal, of course they are gonna have him ahead.


A PPP poll was just commissioned that had Kasich ahead by 1.

I am literally in the mood to scream at you because you're so [enter appropriate word].
Others here and I have already previously outlined our logic as to why Kasich probably will win, yet you seem to struggle to muster up one sentence that makes sense let alone provide any reasoning for anything you say.

It's not just the R internals that have Kasich ahead you clown; every single non partisan poll has put him ahead by margins that would suggest the race may not even be competitive. Moreover, those PPP polls are fricking D internals as well and are the only polls showing a close race. Engage brain. Think. Learn.

Actually, that's not true. I have a multitude of reasons for why I'm pretty confident of a FitzGerald win and I expressed all of those reasons in the OH gubernatorial polls and in this thread over the past months while the pro-Kasich guys on here who don't even live in the state are just thinking it's as simple as "Well, FitzGerald has been running an awful campaign and he only cares about himself and has no money or campaign and blah blah blah" even though he's been very successful this year for someone who's the definition of a grassroots Democrat.

As for Quinnipiac, they just had Beauprez leading by 1 and they certainly aren't the most reliable pollster in this race so far. We've yet to have a non-partisan PPP poll conducted here, but it is true that PPP had the best record in 2012. Even if you look at 2010, one of PPP's last polls had a Kasich +1 win while Q had it at a Kasich +10 win; in actuality, he only won by 2 and didn't even gain a majority of the vote.

[LeBron]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

[LeBron]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

Yeah it was and I guess Republicans just didn't get anybody b/c one, it's Cincinnati and the environment there for the GOP is getting worse, not better. I'm still referring to the Democratic primary though when it comes to who the ODP, AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood etc. would endorse. Hagan's already in the race and if Cranley jumped in and somehow pulled an upset over the establishment, I would be shocked out of my living mind, so luckily we don't have to worry about Cranley v. Portman.

The Minority Leader race I'm still not focusing too much on yet, but there are a lot of possibilities out there. Patten isn't even guaranteed to win the seat so that may have been a bad guess, but Leland and Clyde are up there and you could also argue for Celebrezze, Reece, Driehaus, the family successors to Hagan, Sykes and Boyd respectively, or the possibility for Ramos, Phillips or Ashford.

As for Boccieri, I've heard other rumors he dropped out to begin with b/c of military obligations. That and unfortunately Republicans made it so Boccieri's residence was in Ryan's district, so he would have to carpetbag in a year and a district that wouldn't even be favorable to him. I definitely see him coming back in 2016 though considering national Dems really want to see him running for one of those seats and we do know Boccieri is interested.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018. As for Joyce, who's to say he won't lose this year.   Wager is a lot stronger than Blanchard ever was in terms of fundraising and name ID plus he came incredibly close to successfully pulling a McCaskill. The race obviously leans R, but I wouldn't call Joyce a sure bet for re-election. If Joyce does survive 2014, then yeah, there's a good handful of Dem state legislators in the district who could challenge him.

And yep, Whaley would definitely be stronger than Neuhardt, but Neuhardt is stronger than the Democrat they found this year for the seat. When Turner retires, Neuhardt would be able to do a lot better in her home Montgomery County than she performed in 2012, to, but given she's 62 and Whaley's only in her 30s, the latter might work better b/c Turner might be in Congress for awhile yet.

[LeBron]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

Yeah it was and I guess Republicans just didn't get anybody b/c one, it's Cincinnati and the environment there for the GOP is getting worse, not better. I'm still referring to the Democratic primary though when it comes to who the ODP, AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood etc. would endorse. Hagan's already in the race and if Cranley jumped in and somehow pulled an upset over the establishment, I would be shocked out of my living mind, so luckily we don't have to worry about Cranley v. Portman.

The Minority Leader race I'm still not focusing too much on yet, but there are a lot of possibilities out there. Patten isn't even guaranteed to win the seat so that may have been a bad guess, but Leland and Clyde are up there and you could also argue for Celebrezze, Reece, Driehaus, the family successors to Hagan, Sykes and Boyd respectively, or the possibility for Ramos, Phillips or Ashford.

As for Boccieri, I've heard other rumors he dropped out to begin with b/c of military obligations. That and unfortunately Republicans made it so Boccieri's residence was in Ryan's district, so he would have to carpetbag in a year and a district that wouldn't even be favorable to him. I definitely see him coming back in 2016 though considering national Dems really want to see him running for one of those seats and we do know Boccieri is interested.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018. As for Joyce, who's to say he won't lose this year.   Wager is a lot stronger than Blanchard ever was in terms of fundraising and name ID plus he came incredibly close to successfully pulling a McCaskill. The race obviously leans R, but I wouldn't call Joyce a sure bet for re-election. If Joyce does survive 2014, then yeah, there's a good handful of Dem state legislators in the district who could challenge him.

And yep, Whaley would definitely be stronger than Neuhardt, but Neuhardt is stronger than the Democrat they found this year for the seat. When Turner retires, Neuhardt would be able to do a lot better in her home Montgomery County than she performed in 2012, to, but given she's 62 and Whaley's only in her 30s, the latter might work better b/c Turner might be in Congress for awhile yet.

Thing is that the ODP establishment would back Cranley over Hagan in a second.  Hagan's great and all, but he's a self-described member of the "crazy Caucus."  As for Minority Leader, I am so bullish about Leland's chances because of how much money he's already raised.  It won't be a family successor though.  Gentile is definitely interested, everyone got screwed over when Garison announced she was running.  SD-30 isn't the right part of Joyce's district.  We need someone who is strong in Lake County.  Wager won't win, the ODP has already given up on the race.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018.

And like I said, while Cranley on paper would look better than a crazy true leftist to face Portman, realistically, the ODP isn't going to endorse a limited government, anti-union, pro-life, centrist who, like Frank Jackson, has been a strong defender of Kasich. Hagan, on the other hand, has been a very outspoken critic of Kasich and committed liberal who's more familiar and experienced with the statewide issues. Neither could beat Portman anyways so it wouldn't really make a huge deal who the establishment ended up supporting.

As for Garrison, I agree she's a complete joke. She's beyond uncharismatic and in a recent interview I saw of her after the shutdown, when asked about the obvious question of SSM, she flat-out dodged the question and discussed her role in the Equal Housing and Employment Act as if to try to get Democrats to forget her past on the issue. I wasn't too surprised to see Strickland campaigning with her yesterday, but that's all she has going for her. Her fundraising numbers are terrible, to.

As for Wager, while he isn't from Lake County, he is from the portions of Cuyahoga County that give a good chunk of vote to Joyce in itself, so he can at least decrease the margin there. He plays very well with suburban voters and is playing one of the only ways he can beat Joyce here - convince the voters that Joyce is self-serving and too conservative for the district. It's worth noting to that the Greens don't have anybody here like they did in 2012, either (and they won 4% of the vote in OH-14 in 2012).

[LeBron]

It's also been reported that State Dems are taking challenges in SD-09 and SD-11 very seriously. In SD-09 the most popular Cincinatti Republican, Councilman Charlie Winburn, is running and plans to raise a huge amount of funds; Cecil Thomas is unfortunately raising nothing. The deep blue lean of the district should be enough to thankfully save Thomas, who has been endorsed by Pro Life and Christian organisations.

In SD-11, Democratic Toledo councilman, former Toledo Mayor and former State Rep. Jack Ford is running as an independent against Edna Brown, and Dems fear that he may be able to split the vote far enough to allow the Republican candidate to win the district.

What do you guys make of this?

Well, although Thomas isn't raising money like Winburn is, he still has a lot of familiarity and relationships with the African Americans he visits in the district on a very regular basis plus Thomas also benefits of course from the D+22 PVI there. However, I wouldn't count out a win for Winburn when he'll do well among GOP suburban voters and maybe even a little boost of support within the city with the help of Cranley on his side. Plus when only 2% of registered Dem voters in the district vote in your primary as was the case with Thomas, he better hope they turnout from those embarrassing numbers in the general.

As for SD-11, Edna Brown should definitely be able to hold on. Ford's candidacy is illegal now after a huge mistake he made during the primary, so I'm not even sure if he'll get ballot access if the ODP is successful in their lawsuit. Besides, if Brown wasn't favored already, Ford has a history of serious health problems which might mean he'll only be able to campaign and fundraise in moderation. McCarthy's chances are very, very slim to with the county party being in a trainwreck now and he'd need close to a 50/50 Dem split, which won't happen.

I don't see why Lou Gentile would be a stronger candidate than Jennifer Garrison; he's more liberal and represents bluer territory. Garrison has way more political experience than him and held a very red district during her term in the House. She has a track record of being able to gain conservative votes (see her run against Nancy Johnson a decade ago).
Despite what the loons on twitter and dailykos like to believe, consolidating progressive support isn't going to help you win a district like OH-06.

He is more liberal, yes, but Gentile is also your very common pro-gun and pro-coal Democrat around the area (he also has an A from the NRA). Unlike Garrison, Gentile would get crucial support from the ODP and national Dems and himself has proven he can win over the voters he needs to flip the district. That isn't even mentioning the benefit he has from Johnson being a weakened incumbent. Before Johnson won, he didn't even live in the district and he's made major blunders in wasting taxpayers money.

Will Schiavoni stay on as Senate Minority Leader? I would like to see Cecil Thomas or Lou Gentile in a leadership position soon.

Gentile is actually already in the leadership (he's Asst. Minority Whip). Schiavoni will stay on though. Republicans couldn't even find anyone to face him even though it's not a completely safe district, so unless he runs for statewide office in the near future, he'll stay in there until his term's up in 2018; in which case his strongest replacement who wouldn't be term-limited would be Williams or maybe Yuko.

[LeBron]

If Jennifer Garrison is so unpopular, then why the f**k did her colleagues in the ODP give her the huge responsibility of being House Majority Leader

How has Lou Gentile proven that he can win OH-06??

Well for one thing, Governor Strickland wanted to see Garrison move high up in Democratic leadership plus, the outgoing House Democratic leader was Joyce Beatty and as we know, the party has always strived to have female leaders within the party. Obviously, it proved a disaster since the bigot tried to stop the passage of EHEA at all costs by attempting to delay it so she could avoid controversy in her Secy. of State run. To her demise, the bill did pass the House in 2009. She couldn't be trusted to begin with after her horrible, smear campaign against the "too gay friendly" Hollister or once helping kill a bill that would have prohibited bullying in schools against LGBT kids because it created a "special class."

X and I pretty much already explained why Gentile is a far better candidate than Garrison. Gentile isn't a radical, self-serving homophobe whose been shunned by party voters for one. The last time Garrison ever got elected in the district was during the 2008 wave while Gentile was as recent as 2012; winning by 5 points in a district only 5 points less Republican than OH-6. Bare in mind, to, in 2010, Garrison could have ran for re-election, but chose not to. Gentile can practically guarantee help from Strickland if he runs, to - Gentile is a good friend of his and formerly worked on his campaigns for Governor. Then there's the fact that Garrison is a hilariously bad fundraiser since the ODP wants nothing to do with her and no Democrat in this state in their right mind would donate to her while Gentile is popular among moderates and liberals alike. He's received plenty of donations and while he is a gun touter, he has consistently voted against Kasich like on JobsOhio SB5, SB310 or the voting restrictions while we have Garrison who opposes something Republicans and Democrats alike support, a raise in the minimum wage. One is not like the other, Hifly.

[LeBron]

If Garrison actually opposes raising the minimum wage then that's quite alarming. However, if she was so unpopular and incompetent she wouldn't have been allowed anywhere near the position of Majority Leader regardless of what Strickland had to say.

Her attitude towards Gay Rights and Abortion does not matter in the race for OH-06; it is a socially conservative district and Gay Marriage and Abortion are probably not very popular therein. Garrison is a fantastic candidate in this respect because she needs conservative voters to win and she held a much redder seat than Gentile.

The fools on Twitter and Dailykos are deluded.

They were at least wise enough not to make her Speaker. And no matter what Garrison wanted, she didn't have the kind of power Budish had. Budish had the power to determine what got a vote on the floor and what didn't and what the policy matters would be, plus Budish had committee control, to. For example, Strickland and Garrison are both very pro-gun, but Speaker Budish, who supports gun control, managed to block a vote on the conceal carry Senate Bill 239. Keep in mind to, after 2008, Democrats had a narrow majority and giving a Bluedog Democrat like Garrison a position in leadership helped solidify the support Budish needed from conservatives and moderates in his caucus on crucial votes.

She's not doing herself any favors polarizing Democrats outside the district and don't think the ODP forgot either how Garrison was an embarrassment to the party during her short tenure as leader, how she used the Majority Leader spot as a stepping stone for higher office right away or how she helped give the Republicans HD-93 in 2010. She's able to rally around the moderates in the district just as well as Gentile can, but Gentile has a much bigger donor benefactor and that matters.

[LeBron]

That caller had nothing better to do than stalk FitzGerald and accuse him of cheating on his wife of 23 years? Really? He has kids about to go into college and a family to support. Come on.....just really? Whoever that caller is should be completely ashamed of himself for even insinuating that.

I would take nothing of this because something the Dispatch fails to note is that it was just a talk he was having with a friend from a delegation trying to meet up with the other delegates to find the hotel and even an officer noticed it right on the spot. He wasn't charged with a crime or anything. There's nothing scandalous out of this and just because it happened at night doesn't automatically mean he's up to something. FitzGerald's personal life shouldn't even be any of Ohio's damn business.

If the ORP use Fitzy's personal life as their next assault line, that's just low on their part, but it will be their loss. They've already tried to sabotage his campaign with a fake site comparing FitzGerald to Jimmy Dimorra, so I wouldn't expect anything less from them. Kasich is involved in plenty of scandals himself and he's somehow still above water, so I don't expect this to make an impact on the actual race, and Republicans who helped leak this "dirt" on FitzGerald will just look like disrespectful savages in the long run if they do go after this.

[LeBron]

That caller had nothing better to do than stalk FitzGerald and accuse him of cheating on his wife of 23 years? Really? He has kids about to go into college and a family to support. Come on.....just really? Whoever that caller is should be completely ashamed of himself for even insinuating that.

He didn't "stalk" FitzGerald. He found FitzGerald cheating in a parking lot. So the caller should be ashamed about that?

I would take nothing of this because something the Dispatch fails to note is that it was just a talk he was having with a friend from a delegation trying to meet up with the other delegates to find the hotel and even an officer noticed it right on the spot. He wasn't charged with a crime or anything. There's nothing scandalous out of this and just because it happened at night doesn't automatically mean he's up to something. FitzGerald's personal life shouldn't even be any of Ohio's damn business.

It's just a friend from a delegation trying to meet up with the other delegates to find the hotel. At 4:30 in the morning. And there were some "back and forth" activities.

If the ORP use Fitzy's personal life as their next assault line, that's just low on their part, but it will be their loss. They've already tried to sabotage his campaign with a fake site comparing FitzGerald to Jimmy Dimorra, so I wouldn't expect anything less from them. Kasich is involved in plenty of scandals himself and he's somehow still above water, so I don't expect this to make an impact on the actual race, and Republicans who helped leak this "dirt" on FitzGerald will just look like disrespectful savages in the long run if they do go after this.

You do realize many other campaigns have done this? It's not news. This is one from Carter campaign supporters. Politicians have attacked other politicians for cheating before. The Republicans are pretty happy they've been able to get this information because their chances of winning has gone up.

FitzGerald and the Irish delegate were minding their own business, and had good reason to stop to help relocate their location to the delegate hotel via GPS and help find their friends in the other car. All while an electrician who was working at this time and decided to call 911, looking at FitzGerald and the delegate for the next 1/2 hour because something seemed "a little fishy" when realistically, police records show nothing happened.

The delegates and FitzGerald had a late night. They were at a bar where FitzGerald was one of the designated, sober drivers of the evening and one of the only two there who knew the area and who volunteered to drive. It isn't illegal to be driving at 4:30 in the morning, and the only reason they stopped in the vacant parking lot was because it was the closest place at the time of when the needed to stop - plus, what other parking place are you going to find having cars at 4:30 in the morning? Any place would have looked "suspicious" according to the eye witness. Even FitzGerald's wife, Shannon, knew where FitzGerald was at. Ed would not cheat on her - she's a great woman with a great family who works two jobs herself to help provide the money necessary to send all their kids to college. They all go to our church regularly, to and Ed isn't the kind of guy who would do something heinous like this that Republicans are insinuating.

The chances of Kasich winning hasn't gone up because of this. If anything, with the lack of evidence here against FitzGerald and the amount of evidence here for FitzGerald, it's looking now more like a political, personal attack by Republicans than anything else plus FitzGerald's name ID will increase from this attack, to. There is proof that the Ohio and RGA Republicans were involved in this and I'll get to that in a minute.

[LeBron]

Ed FitzGerald spoke at a press conference today at the F.O.P. headquarters in Columbus, Ohio, canceling his original campaign visit in Dayton to discuss this defamatory attack which he's aware Kasich knew about. Obviously, as is typical Kasich fashion, he didn't comment on FitzGerald's comments and is going to let his GOP henchmen in the state party (specifically, ORP Chairman Matt Borges) do his bidding for him in this war orchestrated on behalf of Governor Kasich. It's amazing how Kasich could even tolerate this when he himself has a family including two young daughters. He's not setting an example for them or Ohio.

Here's another video from that same press conference where FitzGerald outlines everything that happened on October 13th, 2012. He was not cheating on his wife. He's getting criticized for taking the responsibility of being the designated, sober driver of the evening in an area the delegates weren't familiar with. When they did stop, it was for getting their coordinates back on track and to wait for the other car to catch up to them. The Irish delegate who was in the passenger seat and the cop who came to the parking lot scene can confirm some, if not all of this. The eye witness and the 1 girl, 1 man, 1 car, + night does not mean FitzGerald was cheating. In fact, the eye witness was using a horrible play on words and didn't even have a good vantage point from what he was describing. When police did arrive, they found nothing unusual going on, and there wasn't.

What I can tell you though is that this fake, underhanded leak was because a series of emails have been leaked by Team FitzGerald indicating that the Westlake Mayor, the RGA and the ORP were all working together and used public resources to find damaging dirt on FitzGerald. Mayor Dennis Clough (R) of Westlake is denying involvement with the public records, even though there's evidence that would show otherwise and Kasich is refusing to denounce this personal attack on Ed and his family. Is it no wonder either that they're leaking this right after the ORP and RGA feel that Kasich is politically in trouble for re-election with both campaigns underway and a FitzGerald ad already airing in the process with polls indicating a close race? They're trying to win this race the same way that Thad Cochran did in the early stage of MS-Sen - through campaign workers for Kasich/Cochran throwing malicious verbal assaults and personal attacks over "scandals" and non-issues.

Here's another few tidbits from FitzGerald's press conference that further backs up FitzGerald's explanations and some heavy criticism to the Republicans:

- Found that the Ohio Republican Party filed record requests looking for dirt and used Ed's son's traffic ticket as a potential political attack as one of many examples. His wife Sharron was very upset when he heard the ORP had done this, and I don't blame her.

And on the actual night itself:

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I hope Republicans realize that neither side is winning. Ed and his family are getting bashed for an alleged affair and are trying to deliberately ruin the relationship of Ed and Shannon. It's awful, and when you know that Ed and Shannon are like any other middle-class family who regularly go to church, go to the state fair and partake in other fun things while still managing to work day in day out and be great parents, you know that they know Ohio better than Kasich ever would. From a political perspective, Republicans are about to go off the deep-end, to, and because Kasich has chosen to make this personal, he better get ready for the 3 worst months of his life.

FitzGerald understandably wants to move on from this fake rumor and is stating he's committed to his wife and that Republicans need to stop with these attacks and get to the real issues. Unfortunately, this isn't going to be an issue-driven campaign anymore with focus on tax rates on the wealthy and poor or job creation, but rather just total media attention over this one thing that shouldn't even be in the news. Here's one final article which basically outlines everything that's happened so far.

[LeBron]

As for why Kasich didn't comment, he'd need his head examined if he did. I highly doubt Kasich was in that parking lot with them at 4:30am. He has no idea what happened and whatever he could possibly say could only come back and bite him.

As for whether or not I think Fitz had an affair, I have absolutely no idea. I wouldn't have really expected that of him before this and think it's entirely reasonable for him to have been in a car with a woman without having sex with her. When it comes to making assumptions, let's not get too hasty.

I don't really care much anyway since there was absolutely no way was going to vote for Fitz even if Kasich was the one found in a car with a woman who isn't his wife at 4:30 in the morning.

Oh, he knew about it. Those series of emails I linked to above involved participation in this leakage by the ORP who, along with Kasich, are like brothers. It's chairman was even appointed by Kasich, himself. Kasich isn't exactly the best man when it comes to telling the truth, either. He once lied about working before for the Lehman Brothers even though he was an executive there, he lied about public employees in the state receiving free healthcare, he lied about not raising taxes, he's lied about his own birthplace and there's plenty of other lies out there in the shadows. And now, Kasich's conscience is telling him to not tell the truth about his ordering of the leak.

The only thing scandalous in this whole campaign has been Kasich making back-handed deals with taxpayer money to fund failing charter schools and non-existent jobs under JobsOhio (and has refused to allow an audit on it + exempt it from all Ohio's open govt and ethics laws). He's a very corrupt guy seeing as how Kasich earlier this year helped pass modern-day Jim Crow laws and purposely made it nearly impossible for the Libertarians to make the ballot this year so he can get re-elected. Or how about when the Ohio Department of Natural Resources established a hit list of any major opponents of Ohio's state park fracking plan including the Sierra Club which Kasich's office claimed they knew nothing about (later proven false). Or, my favorite one, Kasich using taxpayer dollars to pay for security improvements at his house in Westerville because he didn't want the Governor's Mansion. This is Kasich trying to make voters forget some of his most heinous acts as Governor including Senate Bill 5 or his utter lack of transparency, but it's already backfiring.

[LeBron]

Since some of you other guys are unbelievably defending Kasich's personal attack on Ed's family, I urge the rest of you who sincerely support Ed on here to sign Ed's petition to tell Governor Kasich that dirty politics and his corrupt administration don't belong in Ohio.

http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/landing/gutter-politics/

FTR, I might seem like a "FitzGerald hack", but this is my first real and more local campaign I'm in and not only do I want to see us win back the Governor's Mansion as a party, but he lives right here in Lakewood with us. He's gotten to know and have great friendships with a lot of the families in and around the city, they go to our same parish (my parents just saw Shannon and her 16 year old daughter at church on Saturday), and I've interned for and met Ed before and he's a great, down-to-Earth guy who is very disciplined. I'll defend him to the Earth and back if I have to.

As IceSpear said, he's never been drunk and never smoked pot, and he's not a sleazy, average American who would cheat on his wife - he just wouldn't do that and I personally believe that. I don't know him intimately by any means, but I know him better than those of you making assumptions of him cheating based solely on the timing of the drive back to the hotel.

[LeBron]

Since some of you other guys are unbelievably defending Kasich's personal attack on Ed's family, I urge the rest of you who sincerely support Ed on here to sign Ed's petition to tell Governor Kasich that dirty politics and his corrupt administration don't belong in Ohio.

http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/landing/gutter-politics/

FTR, I might seem like a "FitzGerald hack", but this is my first real and more local campaign I'm in and not only do I want to see us win back the Governor's Mansion as a party, but he lives right here in Lakewood with us. He's gotten to know and have great friendships with a lot of the families in and around the city, they go to our same parish (my parents just saw Shannon and her 16 year old daughter at church on Saturday), and I've interned for and met Ed before and he's a great, down-to-Earth guy who is very disciplined. I'll defend him to the Earth and back if I have to.

As IceSpear said, he's never been drunk and never smoked pot, and he's not a sleazy, average American who would cheat on his wife - he just wouldn't do that and I personally believe that. I don't know him intimately by any means, but I know him better than those of you making assumptions of him cheating based solely on the timing of the drive back to the hotel.

"...and he's not a sleazy average American who would cheat on his wife..." - Adam

What the hell?

He might have meant the average person who cheats on their wife is sleazy instead of the average American, but I was wondering about that as well.

That is what I meant. Thanks.

How does a father of five not have a drivers license? That just seems impractical.

He's a father of four, actually.

Regarding the issue at hand, FitzGerald has had his driver's license since November 2012, so this is the past. Even in this time period where he did have a learner's permit, Ohio law only requires that there be a person in the passenger seat 21 or older who has a driver's license, so it would have been perfectly legal if Shannon, someone on FitzGerald's staff etc. was driving with him.

Hopefully FitzGerald does the honorable thing and drops out. He's clearly a disaster.

Like we're going to just hand the race to Kasich.

How is Mary Taylor unelected? She was elected on a ticket with Kasich. Was LBJ unelected when he succeeded JFK as President in 1963?

That's just the way it's been for the past few decades. Our Lt. Governor used to be elected separately, but on far too many instances the Lt. Gov was of a different party than the Gov (ex. Democratic Gov John Gilligan's Lt. Gov was Republican John Brown). The position is pretty much nothing, but it still allows for a more diverse ticket every 4 years and it's still a great stepping stone for future office (ex. former Sen and current AG Mike DeWine is a former LG as well as current Ohio Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor).



As for the other personal incident, everything you guys are looking an answer to can most likely be found here. Ed explains why they were at a bar after hours, where they were before going to the bar, that Ed was not drunk, that only Joanne was with Ed in the car b/c of the request of the rest of the delegation plus the other designated driver, Nate Kelly, had a larger SUV, and no crime was committed on scene and that the police found the two "just talking."

As for the eye witness and his lawyer, they're just making up lies now. The eye witness mentioned nothing about moving to the backseat or the headlights during his 911 call and his vantage point was terrible. I don't know about you guys, but I'm more inclined to trust law enforcement on this than a random stranger who didn't know what he was seeing.

It's worth noting to that the ODP is still fully behind and trusts FitzGerald in this allegation. I'm liking the strategy that our team is taking. Stay away from this negligible stuff involving Fitzy's personal life and stay on the issues that are hurting Kasich's confidence among voters.

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[LeBron]

Just because these two leaks involving the license and the alleged affair are shifting this campaign away from other aspects of it, I'll still cover you guys on all the advantages Fitzy still has and why we still have a great chance at winning here.

A total of 3 ads are coming to the airwaves this week in Ohio - 2 for Kasich, 1 for FitzGerald. Kasich's ads can be seen here. One of the Kasich ads from the RGA is the first ad to attack FitzGerald (still no sign of the DGA in this race :/), and the RGA ad mentions nothing of the parking lot incident the RGA was involved in leaking. The other Kasich ad, double the length of FitzGerald's, out of his own campaign is another story about his life and not his job as Governor - it's basically a sob story ad and it doesn't detail his record as Governor, at all.

Now FitzGerald's attack ad is the one I've been waiting for! "Working" will air around the Cleveland and Columbus media markets again as well as broadcasting on cable TV statewide. It hits Kasich hard in just the first 10 seconds for his attacks on the poor and middle class and like his radio ad, it goes right into talk of who FitzGerald is and his strong record as County Executive. For some odd reason though, Ed's approval of the message is missing at the end, but overall, a great ad. I can't wait to see the impact of it on the polls!



The new fundraising reports are released for July which show Kasich still has a 5-to-1 cash advantage with Kasich's $11.4M to FitzGerald's $2.44M. While Kasich has his political machine to spend however much he pleases, this does show that Fitzy actually had more donors than Kasich did and that his grassroots campaign has become very successful. He got only $40K from the ODP, this time, but that's mainly to shift more money and resources to Pillich (who has the best chance of winning a seat). As Sharen Neuhardt once said, if you can't outraise Kasich, then you better be ready to out-grassroots him and FitzGerald's done just that.

Down-ballot, every Democratic candidate except Nina Turner outraised the Republican incumbents, but all of the GOP officeholders hold a cash advantage still. Mandel has $3.4M CoH to Pillich's $2M in Treasurer, Husted has $3.1M CoH to Turner's roughly $750K, Yost has $1.3M to Carney's nearly $1M, and not that it matters, but Pepper has $1.8M against very safe incumbent DeWine who has $3M.



That so called "Ohio comeback" has again proven to be false according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's a fact that Kasich has created plenty of jobs under his administration, but we trail the nation in private-sector job growth by 1.3% in Kasich's first term and missed out on 65,000 jobs in Ohio. Not only that, but under Kasich, we're still not below pre-recession levels and our manufacturing jobs industry is not recovering fast enough. With people leaving the work force in big numbers as well, I love how Kasich also claims we're in an "Era of Good Feelings." Not even Republicans in Southeast Ohio want anything to do with him b/c of the job crisis.

[LeBron]

...the DGA probably thinks Fitzgerald is doomed and better of focusing on FL/WI/MI

And Georgia with Jason Carter.

Completely forgot about that :S, but yes, him too.

Even before this stuff was leaked, the DGA pledged their support (and later reaffirmed it), for FitzGerald, but you practically saw large cash amounts in every battleground Governor state but Ohio (with the exception of one small donation at the beginning of the year from them). They're wasting their time in Michigan and Florida when Schauer and Crist have been running awful campaigns and no matter how much they spend in Georgia, it won't be enough to get Carter to 50%. I bet there would be a lot more faith in FitzGerald here if the DGA had used their resources more wisely.

Just because these two leaks involving the license and the alleged affair are shifting this campaign away from other aspects of it, I'll still cover you guys on all the advantages Fitzy still has and why we still have a great chance at winning here.

A total of 3 ads are coming to the airwaves this week in Ohio - 2 for Kasich, 1 for FitzGerald. Kasich's ads can be seen here. One of the Kasich ads from the RGA is the first ad to attack FitzGerald (still no sign of the DGA in this race :/), and the RGA ad mentions nothing of the parking lot incident the RGA was involved in leaking. The other Kasich ad, double the length of FitzGerald's, out of his own campaign is another story about his life and not his job as Governor - it's basically a sob story ad and it doesn't detail his record as Governor, at all.

Now FitzGerald's attack ad is the one I've been waiting for! "Working" will air around the Cleveland and Columbus media markets again as well as broadcasting on cable TV statewide. It hits Kasich hard in just the first 10 seconds for his attacks on the poor and middle class and like his radio ad, it goes right into talk of who FitzGerald is and his strong record as County Executive. For some odd reason though, Ed's approval of the message is missing at the end, but overall, a great ad. I can't wait to see the impact of it on the polls!



The new fundraising reports are released for July which show Kasich still has a 5-to-1 cash advantage with Kasich's $11.4M to FitzGerald's $2.44M. While Kasich has his political machine to spend however much he pleases, this does show that Fitzy actually had more donors than Kasich did and that his grassroots campaign has become very successful. He got only $40K from the ODP, this time, but that's mainly to shift more money and resources to Pillich (who has the best chance of winning a seat). As Sharen Neuhardt once said, if you can't outraise Kasich, then you better be ready to out-grassroots him and FitzGerald's done just that.

Down-ballot, every Democratic candidate except Nina Turner outraised the Republican incumbents, but all of the GOP officeholders hold a cash advantage still. Mandel has $3.4M CoH to Pillich's $2M in Treasurer, Husted has $3.1M CoH to Turner's roughly $750K, Yost has $1.3M to Carney's nearly $1M, and not that it matters, but Pepper has $1.8M against very safe incumbent DeWine who has $3M.



That so called "Ohio comeback" has again proven to be false according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's a fact that Kasich has created plenty of jobs under his administration, but we trail the nation in private-sector job growth by 1.3% in Kasich's first term and missed out on 65,000 jobs in Ohio. Not only that, but under Kasich, we're still not below pre-recession levels and our manufacturing jobs industry is not recovering fast enough. With people leaving the work force in big numbers as well, I love how Kasich also claims we're in an "Era of Good Feelings." Not even Republicans in Southeast Ohio want anything to do with him b/c of the job crisis.

With all those "advantages" and "hard hitting ads", it's a wonder that no pollster has had Fitzgerald leading or tied with Kasich. I mean, how could voters still support Kasich so just tells "sob stories" while he has created "plenty of jobs?" They should definitely get to know Fitzgerald soon since every Ohio news outlet is covering the fact that he was just "punching in coordinates" in the backseat of a car with a hot Irish lady after a late night at a bar.

And who cares that a grown man, father, and unfaithful husband can't legally drive? It's not like that's going to create another barrier for Fitzgerald to connect with average voters. And the fact that Fitzgerald broke the law for five years is just a distraction! I just wonder why the DGA isn't hopping on the Fitzmentum.

Actually, the only non-partisan PPP poll in Ohio had FitzGerald leading Kasich by 3 points, 38-35 which was back in August when FitzGerald was even less known than he is now. Undoubtedly, women who learn about FitzGerald just from this might hurt his base among them a little bit, but we still have exactly 3 months left to go in this campaign. This whole thing will be blown over when a lot swing voters are going to be seeing FitzGerald's ad on the air focused on the issues while the Kasich campaign is seen attacking Ed's family.

How is Mary Taylor unelected? She was elected on a ticket with Kasich. Was LBJ unelected when he succeeded JFK as President in 1963?

That's just the way it's been for the past few decades. Our Lt. Governor used to be elected separately, but on far too many instances the Lt. Gov was of a different party than the Gov (ex. Democratic Gov John Gilligan's Lt. Gov was Republican John Brown). The position is pretty much nothing, but it still allows for a more diverse ticket every 4 years and it's still a great stepping stone for future office (ex. former Sen and current AG Mike DeWine is a former LG as well as current Ohio Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor).

First of all, I also live in Ohio (coincidentally enough, in Westlake, the very community where Ed Fitzgerald was stopped several years ago). Second off, my point is that when two people are elected as part of a ticket, they've both been elected, and 'replacing the Governor if XYZ happens' is in fact the job description of the Lieutenant Governor, the very role to which Mary Taylor has been elected. (It's all academic, since I very, very strongly doubt Kasich will run for President in 2016 after his reelection.)

Oh, nice! I'm just slightly Northeast of you than in Lakewood. Beyond being the successor if ever needed (the last time that happened was with Hollister for a few weeks), they still do campaign alongside the Governor candidate and during their actual role as Lt. Governor, will normally be occupied by overseeing the Senate or the Governor will appoint the Lt. Governor to some important positions in the state government if he chooses. For example, Kasich appointed Taylor as Director of the Department of Insurance which has some major responsibilities in it's own right.

She wouldn't even have to wait for Kasich to be term-limited or to retire for the Presidency, either. There's been talk she might run for Senate shortly down the road, or if DeWine or Husted opts a run for Governor, that would leave her open for a Senate run against Brown.

[LeBron]

Ed Fitzgerald had one job. He has a decent record at the county level. A family that looks good on mail. A face that cameras can take a picture of. And he was theoretically the biggest square ever. He had the one job of being Generic D.

He has been running on "stop being mean to the poors" and "muh gays" for the entire campaign. He's been hitting the Governor on the issue of right to work and his support for the unborn since the campaign started. He has not been winning with that message. This supposed miracle ad you're relying on to put his affair to rest is that same message.

This significantly damaged Fitzgerald's fundamentals. He's lost what made him shiny. His mistress pretty much did him in. Even if they are just friends, there is a lot of suspicion that the media is playing up and the donors are about to run for the hills. If you think 5-to-1 is bad, wait til your fundraising dries up.

Earlier in the thread, you were talking about Southeast Ohio supposedly souring on the Governor. I think that was a fallacious opinion to have. Now, there is no question that is not a valid region for Firzgerald to pursue. Those were the folks that turned out en masse for Bush. They're integrity voters and values voters. The affair ended any chance that Fitzgerald had in Southeast Ohio.

Cuyahoga County Exec. wasn't his only elected job in Ohio. Before that, he was elected Lakewood Mayor in 2007 and was a City Councilman for nearly a decade. His record shows he isn't your typical "big government liberal" and through a lot of his crime or education based initiatives, has turned Lakewood into one of the best family-friendly places to live.

His campaign has focused on much more than that. You forget than Ed was the same guy who stood up for Ohio before the federal government when Kasich in plain sight attempted to cut funding to any county who distributed absentee ballot applications. Aside from fighting for voting rights, yes, he has been talking about reproductive and gay rights a lot, but these are the voters he'll need to win in November. He campaigned for the referendum on SB5, he's focused on green energy and condemned Kasich rolling back energy standards, he's demanding to see the legislature raise the minimum wage in Ohio, and there is a huge injustice with our current income tax rates, so he should be allowed to campaign on that. He simply wants an Ohio for everyone and not the wealthy, and that's very much a positive message to send. But what's Kasich been doing this whole time Riley? AFAIK, he's been sitting behind the ORP and are letting them do all the campaigning. He's far from the definition of "The People's Governor."

Until FitzGerald is evidently proven to have had sex with his friend from Ireland, he's still in pretty good shape. It's all speculation for now. It's worth noting to that it's easy to avoid the TV news, but it's hard to avoid a TV ad which goes good for Fitz. Could this incident with Joanne hurt Fitzy among Planned Parenthood and other women's rights groups supporting him? Yes, but he still has organized labor, the state party and a lot of Ohio Democratic citizens behind him. That ad only cost Fitz about $50K btw, so as recent reports show that has him at around $2.5M, he still has enough money to defend himself against Kasich.

Regarding SE Ohio, I only said that they hate Kasich down there, which is true. The last approval rating for him in that region was in the 30s I think, and it's mainly because Kasich is doing nothing about the large industry plants, including Ormet, shutting down there. Now of course, not even I would argue about Fitz's chances in that region. They're low and the only Democrat who could carry all of coal country is someone who's from coal country (which Fitzy isn't).

[LeBron]

he's still in pretty good shape.

When was he in good shape to begin with?

With the exception of the spring when FitzGerald got stuck with that awful surge of Kasich/RGA ads, he has kept this race within single digits and has had some defining moments in his campaign from his national TV appearances after approaching Eric Holder about the voter suppression in Ohio to Bill Clinton endorsing FitzGerald to Fitzy airing his first statewide, cable TV ad right as both campaigns officially launched. Over the past year and a half Fitzy has been in this campaign for Governor, he's barely gotten any outside help at all and you do have to give him a lot of well-deserved credit that this race is even close.

The thing is that while FitzGerald might not have actually done anything wrong with Joanna and that all might be the witness making stuff up, he clearly did something wrong with his driver's license. Although he would have been legally able to drive with her in the passenger seat, what'd he do when he finally got her back to the hotel? Teleport home? Stay the night with her? How did he get to work every day? Why did he not mention any of his license issues back when he was running for County Executive and the Plain Dealer did an expose on the cars all the candidates drove (remember Ken Lanci's Maybach?)?

Half the reason this story is blowing up the way it is actually is that it's like a real life game of Clue or something. No one understands what/why FitzGerald did and the deeper you dig the less sense any of this seems to make.

I found out that he was roughly 9 miles from his home in Lakewood when dropping Joanne off in Westlake which makes sense since the 2 cities really aren't that far apart and are both on the west side of Cleveland. Shannon was likely waiting up for him to get home and there's a possibility that Ed called Shannon to ask her if she would pick him up.

During 2002-2008 when he had no permit or license, obviously, he wouldn't put that sort of risk on himself of driving without either one and he could have easily had someone in his family, a personal friend or a friend from work pick him up for work or for other miscellaneous stuff on a regular basis, or for all we know, maybe he took the bus. His downtown office isn't all that far from his home as Cuyahoga County Exec., and during this time when he didn't have his license, he only operated from City Hall in Lakewood when he was Councilman which is even closer for him. And during 2008-2012 when he did have his permit, unless the police have records of giving any minor misdemeanors to Ed between that time for driving without a passenger, it can't be proven that he ever didn't have someone in the passenger seat while behind the wheel.

I know he is busy in Pennsylvania right now but I wonder if we could get Tom Wolf to run in place of FitzGerald. Wolf has proven himself to be a VERY strong candidate and I have no doubt he would dispatch Kasich. He also has a drivers license and doesn't bang random women in an Applebee's parking lot at 4:30 in the morning.

Yeah, because he's running against an even weaker Republican than Kasich and he self-funds his entire campaign. Plus, Ohio already has an out-of-touch millionaire with a racial past. We don't need another one.



Also, kind of OT, but I found this photo on Bob Bridges Facebook page (the new Libertarian in the race for Auditor after Husted purged the initial Libertarian from the primary ballot), and it's pretty hilarious and true.

[LeBron]

The thing is that while FitzGerald might not have actually done anything wrong with Joanna and that all might be the witness making stuff up, he clearly did something wrong with his driver's license. Although he would have been legally able to drive with her in the passenger seat, what'd he do when he finally got her back to the hotel? Teleport home? Stay the night with her? How did he get to work every day? Why did he not mention any of his license issues back when he was running for County Executive and the Plain Dealer did an expose on the cars all the candidates drove (remember Ken Lanci's Maybach?)?

Half the reason this story is blowing up the way it is actually is that it's like a real life game of Clue or something. No one understands what/why FitzGerald did and the deeper you dig the less sense any of this seems to make.

I found out that he was roughly 9 miles from his home in Lakewood when dropping Joanne off in Westlake which makes sense since the 2 cities really aren't that far apart and are both on the west side of Cleveland. Shannon was likely waiting up for him to get home and there's a possibility that Ed called Shannon to ask her if she would pick him up.

During 2002-2008 when he had no permit or license, obviously, he wouldn't put that sort of risk on himself of driving without either one and he could have easily had someone in his family, a personal friend or a friend from work pick him up for work or for other miscellaneous stuff on a regular basis, or for all we know, maybe he took the bus. His downtown office isn't all that far from his home as Cuyahoga County Exec., and during this time when he didn't have his license, he only operated from City Hall in Lakewood when he was Councilman which is even closer for him. And during 2008-2012 when he did have his permit, unless the police have records of giving any minor misdemeanors to Ed between that time for driving without a passenger, it can't be proven that he ever didn't have someone in the passenger seat while behind the wheel.

It is possible Shannon was waiting up for him to call and get picked up all that time, but if that's the case, then what did they do with Ed's car once she came to pick him up? It's not like she could have driven him back out there the next morning to get it; he still wouldn't be able to drive alone. I suppose they could have gotten a neighbor to do it. But why orchestrate all those convoluted logistics (which are possible certainly but who honestly believes that?)? If Shannon was waiting up all night, why not bring her? They were going to a bar on W 25th, so it wasn't some exactly an all-business setting. People normally bring their spouses to those sorts of events anyway.

Even if you believe FitzGerald didn't drive illegally this far, according to the Plain Dealer, FitzGerald described his Chrysler Pacifica when running for County Executive. He never managed to mention he only drivers it with another licensed adult, although I suppose that would be possible. But of course, according to the City of Lakewood, FitzGerald began driving city vehicles in 2009 and pumped $1,500 worth of fuel in that time frame, the majority of which he did not even have a learner's permit. Oh, and both Lakewood's Law Director and Cuyahoga County Council President C. Ellen Connally (I'm sure she's sooo disappointed to tell the media...) have reported seeing FitzGerald driving alone over the years.

There's simply no way he didn't drive illegally. I know people can live without cars and many do, but over the course of the last decade, someone would have figured out that FitzGerald didn't drive (except with a licensed adult passenger for three of the ten years) at some point. He could have even made a stand in favor of mass transit or something. But he didn't. You can perhaps continue to find ways FitzGerald could have eluded driving illegally, but that idea isn't consistent with reality; there is a certain way in which the world actually is and the occurrence of Ed FitzGerald driving illegally clearly happened.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that Shannon took one of her two sons, Jack or Connor, to pick the car up the following day. Heck, the sons could have done it on their own even seeing as how both of them have their licenses. As for Shannon leaving early, well, what we do know about that night is the whole delegation started out with FitzGerald at a reception at the Cleveland Clinic and from there went to dinner and then the bar. By the time they got to the bar, about half of the delegation members had left already, so it's possible Shannon, who also knows the area well, left early to drive them back to the hotel. She probably would have just decided to drive home from the hotel, then.

I can see how someone might think this showed a lack of judgment on his part not to have a driver's license or not to tell the media earlier about this, but he did try to renew his license on numerous occasions, and couldn't find the time. The Ohio BMV is awful when it comes to wait times and a lot of people just don't have the time or the patience for them and all the documentation that's required. Our Ohio Revised Code only allows 6 months to renew your license after the expiration date, and at this time in 2002, Ed was probably more concerned with family matters and building up his name in politics through campaigning for the statewide candidates that year and focusing on his job as an At-Large City Councilman. After those 6 months, you end up going back to square one with the applications, exams and the dreadful maneuverability test at the very end.

The BMV isn't even able to confirm whether or not FitzGerald had a driver's license or a learner's permit between that 5 year period, so for all we know, even if there is proof found that Ed was driving between 2002-2007, then that still won't do any good considering the BMV destroyed any official records during that time.

As for Connally, she's not exactly an unbiased source, and neither is the Dispatch who are pretty well-known for their inherent bias towards Kasich. She's always had something against FitzGerald and this year, she even contemplated running on a ticket for Lt. Governor to spite FitzGerald, so we can't be so certain these two are telling the truth or if they're just making up false stories. Even the electrician in the other scenario was stretching the truth about "backseat, back and forth sex."

Here's the thing though. This is Ohio. We're a battleground state and Kasich would be very vulnerable this year if this had been an issue-based campaign, but his campaign is trying to ruin any opportunity at that by stealing the women vote for himself. This shouldn't be a deciding factor in their votes. FitzGerald apologized for all of it, forgive and forget, and he can now legally drive in Ohio as of November 2012 when he got his license again. Forgive and forget.

[LeBron]

Actually guys, even if Fitzy withdrew today, no Democrat would be able to replace him on the November ballot. This past Tuesday, August 5th at midnight was the 90 day pre-Election Day deadline for up until when the party could have replaced him on the ballot. Sure, someone could run as a write-in still, but that would be nonsensical. No matter what support FitzGerald loses among women though or whatever heinous attacks the Kasich administration chooses to throw at him he says he's in the race to stay!

Even had he withdrawn, the party would have only had a week to recruit somebody which only would have made the matter worse a la a Mark Foley-Joe Negron situation. A week up until Monday would have never been enough time to get another strong Democrat and the new Democrat, probably Todd Portune, would be low on cash, low on name ID presumably, and would only have 3 months to campaign on a back injury. Portune has the personality of a toothpick and would lose by an even bigger margin than FitzGerald ever would. Strickland or Ryan would have never ran at this point in the game, either. So it's good to know Ed will fight through this peer pressure for him to drop out!

He shouldn't have to drop out if he doesn't want to. Politics is politics and Ed understands that family comes first no matter what happens in these personal leaks. His own son is facing health problems and Ohio chooses to be more concerned about FitzGerald's "unfaithfulness and lack of judgment as a parent" when he's done all he can to be a loving and caring father. Just leave him alone, my God. If Ohioans choose to be ignorant and want to base their vote off something as dumb as a non-existent affair or "licensegate", then more power to them, but it's not going to stop Team FitzGerald from fighting Kasich's policies and winning back the Governor's Mansion.

[LeBron]

Sure, someone could run as a write-in still, but that would be nonsensical.

That's the only option left for those of you who desperately want another candidate. I'm not saying anyone would run as a write-in, just stating that all other possibilities besides allowing FitzGerald to be the nominee are no longer possible since most deadlines except write-in passed.

[LeBron]

Can someone explain to me what makes this scandal so devastating to Fitzgerald? I mean, I never thought he would win in the first place, but this always seemed like a whole bunch of nothing to me.

Well, a lot of voters, mainly women, are now turning against FitzGerald because they think and are appalled that Ed would cheat on his wife; even though those women have little evidence to show for it. That and licensegate, lack of judgment, lack of transparency, and still some sentiments about his choice of Eric Kearney. If you compare the last 2 OH-Dem PPP internals, Fitzy had a +1 lead among women in July, and now Kasich has the women vote by 7. It really should be nothing, but the ORP saw a golden opportunity to make FitzGerald's first major statewide ID known through an alleged affair which distracted everyone from the campaign itself.

Now onto something shocking you guys are about to hear from me. Not only the polls, but the personal experience of campaigning just tells me that we can't beat Kasich. There are Democratic women in my area who are saying they won't vote for FitzGerald now, but they won't cast a vote for Kasich, either. Basically, a + for Rios and higher dropoffs that would have otherwise went to Fitzy. It's at least relieving from the aspect that they're willing to care about their own self-interests and still reject Kasich considering a vote for Kasich is a vote for de-funding Planned Parenthood, shutting down abortion clinics, and a 6-week abortion ban to come. The state Democratic Party is giving up on FitzGerald and even FitzGerald's giving up on FitzGerald. He's been giving a lot of his campaign contributions to a voter turnout initiative for more young and minority voters to turnout to vote this November; thus helping down-ballot. I'm still going to campaign for FitzGerald and I'm optimistic that he'll return to run for an office in 2018, but for now, this is not winnable. On the plus side, this means we're favored to control redistricting in 2021 seeing as how another term of Kasich and Ohio GOP control will not go well for their approval numbers in the long run.

We're slightly favored in Treasurer though and we also have a pretty good chance at knocking off Husted. Mandel and Husted are incredibly unpopular and to Husted's dismay, this race has become one of the most nationalized races in Ohio this year with tons of negative publicity for Husted over the state's modern-day Jim Crow laws. If he survives, it will only be b/c Husted has a large cash advantage and Turner is too polarizing of a politician to win statewide in a midterm, but it will be very, very close.

[LeBron]

What would happen if Wolf and FitzGerald traded places? Wolf runs in Ohio against Kasich and FitzGerald runs against Corbett.

I can tell you what happens; I cast a vote for Anita Rios.

But yeah, speaking of which, I just got my absentee ballot application in the mail yesterday. I don't know if I'm voting in-person or absentee yet (I voted in-person in the May primary), but I sent in the filled out application for the heck of it. The odd thing to note though about these new absentee applications is they were sent out by Husted when they were formerly sent out by my county and other counties who decided to send them out. The new law Kasich signed this year forbade that practice, and now can only be sent out statewide if the state legislature appropriates the money for them and Husted chooses to send them out.

Luckily, we had the federal money to mail absentee ballots statewide this year from the Help America Vote Act that was passed federally about a decade ago, but once we run out of federal funds, then that's when Republicans can screw all of us over.

Early voting begins Oct. 7th and early voting hours and Golden Week were luckily restored just in time (Oct. 6th is the registration deadline). I'll probably be voting straight Democratic for Fitzy, Turner, Pillich, Pepper, Carney, O'Donnell, Letson, Antonio, Skindell and so forth.

[LeBron]

Yep, Ed FitzGerald, the same man whose never smoked marijuana before, has endorsed marijuana for medical purposes as well as David Pepper, who's running for Attorney General. Here's the Cincinnati and Cleveland newspaper stories on it.

Even though the effort is futile, it wouldn't have been a bad campaign strategy before everything went downhill for Ed. Aside from background checks for all gun sales, medical cannabis is overwhelmingly supported by Ohioans, and of course, Ed's plan from this is try to enthuse younger voters to turning out for the likes of Turner and Pillich. It's worth a try, but the Ohio Rights Group failed to get the sigs they needed to get the referendum issue on the ballot this year, so it won't be as big of an issue this year in Ohio as originally believed.

An interesting dynamic is playing in Ohio now regarding the number of drug issues. Even though Fitzy and Pepper support medical marijuana, Kasich and DeWine are personally opposed, but their Democratic opponents are attacking them in this campaign for not being hard enough on harder drugs (ex. Fitzy and Pepper have attacked Kasich/DeWine for doing nothing about the heroin epidemic and cutting funding for DARE).

For those wondering, I will still be casting a vote for FitzGerald, despite this. Like I said, I'm not a one-issue voter.