Bush would win. Really the only way Carter could've won was if for some reason the Republicans decided to bring up Barry Goldwater again.
As for who I'd vote for, without hindsight Bush. With hindsight Carter, since no Bush I as President means no Bush II.
Nope.
Goldwater/Bush: 300
Carter/Mondale: 238
If Goldwater never ran in '64, it would be a landslide. Still, never underestimate how reputations can be healed by time, effort, apologies, and an unpopular incumbent as opposed to a popular one. Think public opinion of Gerald Ford in 1976 and compare to 1980, note the big jump. For that matter, I think Harold Stassen could've defeated Carter too. And Gerald Ford. Probably the only Republican that Carter could've beaten (aside from the real wingnuts) would be Richard Nixon. Time can't heal everything, y'know.
Oh, and George Bush would've wiped the floor with Carter. Not quite as much as Reagan, but...
Bush-Dole: 400
Carter-Mondale: 138
Poll
