Ireland General Discussion

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Why did Fine Gael lose ground (albiet only 2%) in DSW from 2002 to 2007?

FG went from 2 candidates in 2002 (McGinley and White) to just 1 (McGinley) in 2007. (Running extra candidates tends to increase the first preference percentage - but as a trade-off tends to see votes transfer away to other parties rather than transfer to the running mate.)

Also, IIRC, McGinley had to be pleaded with by Enda Kenny to run again - hard to say how much his heart was in it.

Might have also helped FF that both their candidates were by 2007 high profile.

Much of the Fianna Fáil gain could have been independent voters continuing to "come home" from 1997.  Was the count tight down the stretch between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin for the final seat there in 2007?

As Lewis shows there, the gap expanded slightly from around 700 votes to over a 1,000. McGinley did better than Doherty on the only transfer of significance, but not as much better as such transfers would tend to go in most other parts of the country.

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Mr Justice Peart today granted leave for full hearing motions from FG members seeking the same declarations that Pearse Doherty got for DSW with regard to the Waterford and Dublin S constituencies.

The hearings are scheduled to begin on 22 November.



At any rate, as the bond markets continue to demonstrate disbelief at Ireland, if Prof. Morgan (he who foresaw the apocalypse) is correct in his assessment on the future of the Irish 'economy', the upcoming elections may all be rather academic.

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Candidate deadline passed yesterday.

Just one more to add to those mentioned above - independent Ann Sweeney is running on a sort of plague on all their houses platform. Would probably do well to get her vote tally into triple digits, but she may yet earn the coveted Jas endorsement that could, of course, swing the election her way.


As to the market odds, according to local press:
Doherty (SF)       2/7
O’Neill (FG)         11/4
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 6/1
McBrearty (Lab) 13/2
Pringle (i)           12/1

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As to the market odds, according to local press:
Doherty (SF)       2/7
O’Neill (FG)         11/4
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 6/1
McBrearty (Lab) 13/2
Pringle (i)           12/1

Those odds (assuming someone with a 75% chance of victory would have odds of 1/3 and someone with a 10% chance of victory would have odds of 9/1), add up to 139.8% (77.8% for Doherty (SF), 26.7% for O’Neill (FG), 14.3% for Ó Domhnaill (FF), 13.3% for McBrearty (Lab) and 7.7% for Pringle (i)).  Is the vig built into those odds (which would make it a vig of about 28.4% (39.8% divided by 139.8%))?  Even if the odds for the candidates other than Doherty are from when Doherty's odds were only 4/6 before the High Court decision, those odds would have added up to 122.0% (an 18.0% vig).  Were the odds-makers just sloppy (or deliberately crafty) - is there an additional vig in Paddy Power?

Also, were these odds made before Sweeney filed?  Or would the betting odds against her winning be something on the order of... 1/0?  

I'm afraid the methodology of bookmaking falls beyond my understanding. What I can offer though are Paddy Power's latest odds, from which a mathemathic comparison can be drawn, and from which Ann Sweeney's odds are made available…

4/9   Doherty (SF)
13/8 Ó Domhnaill (FF)
9/1   O’Neill (FG)
10/1 McBrearty (Lab)
33/1 Pringle (i)
33/1 Sweeney (i)

Fairly substantial differentials for various candidates from the other odds above. They also include odds on a prospective Green candidate at 150/1, but to the best of my knowledge, no such candidate has filed.


The Irish Election Literature Blog does exactly what it says on the tin – publishing election literature past and present. So far, Ó Domhnaill is the only one who they’ve gotten anything on. Will keep an eye out for the others.

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That must be 13:1 (not 13:8 ) for Ó Domhnaill (FF).

Actually no, 13/8 was correct. Though the odds have moved today, tightening for Ó Domhnaill...
2/5  Doherty (SF)
7/4  Ó Domhnaill (FF)
9/1  O'Neill (FG)
11/1 McBrearty (L)
33/1 Pringle (i)
33/1 Sweeney (i)

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Do you want a Donegal by-election thread over at the International Elections board?

Would it be possible to export the various DSW posts from here over?
If so - then yeah. (Not sure why I didn't set it up there when called actually.)

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EDIT: It's really impossible to stress enough how bad this result is for Fianna Fáil. If this is how they're polling in Donegal, they're going to get electorally curbstomped nationally.

Indeed. But one must obviously take constituency polls with extreme caution.

Surprising just how strong Doherty appears. Though judging by all accounts of the debates, he's just about the only candidate who is actually coherent.

If O'Neill comes in 4th, would they have to try and resign Enda again - on the eve of a budget and within shouting distance of a general election? *fingers crossed*

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The Greens are precipitating a General Election for January.

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So no collapse by by-election then?

Nope. It's that impending collapse though that allows the Greens one last attempt at demonstrating their relevance by effectively setting the election date.

Though, of course, it's not inconceivable that the Government could fall before that. Passing the budget is not exactly a foregone conclusion. Noel O'Flynn (FF-Cork NC) today joins a number of other backbenchers in making ultimatums.

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Jackie Healy-Rae (i-Kerry S) and Michael Lowry (i-Tipperary N) have decided to undercut the Greens, by immediately withdrawing support from the Government. Both declare that it is highly unlikely that they can support the upcoming budget.

Healy-Rae accused the Taoiseach of telling "blatant lies” to the Irish people regarding the IMF and ECB.

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Given that, my adjusted Dáil/Government support figures are below.
Taking Healy-Rae and Lowry at face value, I’d count them as opposition members and thus rendering upon us a minority-Government.

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)	3	(Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	19
Labour (without whip)	1	(Brougham)
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	4	(Donegal SW, Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government	80	(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney)
Opposition	81	(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Majority	-1

Which is very likely to become  -2 following the Donegal by-election on Thursday – but a week or so ahead of one of the most important budgets in the history of independent Ireland.

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And the walls continue to crumble...

Seán Power (FF-Kildare S) calls on Cowen to resign.

Even presuming the budget passes, whether Cowen can lead FF into the next General Election is, at the very least, now on the table.

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Sort've related, but sort've not:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOQmuh_YPOk&feature=sub

Maybe if I watch it a few more times, the wisdom of that video will dawn on me.

In the meantime, for those who oppose Britain's contribution (thanks for that btw)... I'll point to one or two things.

1. Preventing turmoil in British and other financial markets

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- How to stop Ireland’s financial contagion, Financial Times


2. Profit

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- The ultimate carry trade, Buttonwood blog, The Economist

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Chris Andrews (FF-Dublin SE) joins the call for Cowen to resign as Taoiseach and FF leader. - RTÉ


Fianna Fáil ministers are meeting now.
With the prospect of failing to pass a budget now very much within the range of possibilities, what odds on a decision to immediately go for an election? Or in light of crumbling support, Cowen to make a statement on stepping down?

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And, I just think that Britain (and other countries) should look at Ireland before they decide to start an era of slash-and-burn on their country's public services.

Meaning what exactly?

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Fianna Fáil ministers are meeting now.
With the prospect of failing to pass a budget now very much within the range of possibilities, what odds on a decision to immediately go for an election? Or in light of crumbling support, Cowen to make a statement on stepping down?

Taoiseach to dissolve Dáil after December budget - Irish Times

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And, I just think that Britain (and other countries) should look at Ireland before they decide to start an era of slash-and-burn on their country's public services.

Meaning what exactly?

Austerity leads to... well, what's currently happening in Ireland.

We have a budget deficit running at 32% of GDP and international markets that demand exorbitant interest rates on new lending - and you propose our problem was that the budget deficit was not big enough?

Interesting. Do please elucidate so that I may follow you down the rabbit-hole.

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Fianna Fáil ministers are meeting now.
With the prospect of failing to pass a budget now very much within the range of possibilities, what odds on a decision to immediately go for an election? Or in light of crumbling support, Cowen to make a statement on stepping down?

Taoiseach to dissolve Dáil after December budget - Irish Times

February or March? Can he really last that long? Looks unlikely after today...

Indeed. I'd say quite improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

It's touch and go whether Cowen has the confidence of the Dáil right now, if the opposition force things they could conceivably prevent him getting to the budget with a prior confidence motion. Presumably they should wait until after Thursday's by-election to maximise their numbers.

That said, it's not unfathomable to me to see FG effectively allowing Cowen's budget through. (But then I'm not sure even I trust my own prognostications with anything FG related.)

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lso, if the Greens are actively making calls for an election, is there a reason why the opposition haven't taken the oppurtunity to table a motion of no confidence

The Greens won't vote for an election until after the budget is passed.

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Labour?

I thought Irish Labour was hovering around 10% each election and was very weak outside its strong areas.

Something happened to them to be popular lately?

Exhibit 1:
The Irish "Economy" 2007-10

Exhibit 2:

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FF Parliamentary Party meeting tonight. Tom Kitt (FF-Dublin S) is reportedly seeking enough signatures (18) to force a debate on the party's confidence in their leader.

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Technically the by-election began yesterday. Traditionally Ireland's outlying islands vote a couple of days before the mainland. Donegal South West takes in quite a few of those islands - they voted yesterday.

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Ireland's biggest selling tabloid hedges its bets on the Government...

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Sinn Féin to submit motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach - Irish Times

Minister for Tourism, Mary Hanafin first to effectively declare her interest in taking over FF - Irish Times

Ann Sweeney, independent candidate in Donegal SW, decides to boycott the by-election - Irish Times