India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

In India, elections are won ahead of time by the narrative of the election.  For the BJP the narrative has to be Hindu vs Muslim.  For the opposition, the narrative has to be forward vs backward OR tribal identity or regional identity (with the exception of Gujarat where regional identity helps the BJP.)   The more an entity outside the BJP (in this case the BBC) wants to talk about Muslims the better it is for the BJP.  This is especially true for LS elections. 

[jaichind]

https://nenow.in/north-east-news/tripura/tripura-assembly-elections-ipft-suspends-general-secretary-anti-party-activities.html

"Ahead of Tripura assembly elections, IPFT suspends its general secretary for ‘anti-party activities’"

This almost certainly has to do with the current tribal-based ex-BJP ally IPFT plans to merge into TIPRA which is leading to an internal conflict within IPFT.

[jaichind]

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct

Perish the thought, eh.

The truth is surely that neither of the above is as simplistic as painted there.

But there is still enough substance in both accusations to reflect badly on him.

Sure, as long as the BBC knows that these documentaries only help Modi/BJP electoral prospects in 2024.  In fact I am sure Modi order social media to censor these documentaries exactly to get the opposition (INC) to complain about it as to make sure potential BJP voters are aware of such documentaries. 

[jaichind]

India Today semi-annual Mood of the Nation poll (done by C-Voter)

LS elections - NDA with a smaller majority than in 2019

            Seats       Vote share
NDA       298            43
UPA       153            30
Others     92            27




Modi's approval/disapproval at 72/16 and going up



Performance of NDA 67/18 and rising



Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra gets mixed reviews



Cultural issues heavy in favor of the BJP

Uniform Civil Code - Yes/No at 69/19


Should Hijab be banned in schools Yes/No 57/26

Are Muslim men engaging in Love Jihad Yes/No 53/33


The  Muslim men engaging in Love Jihad Yes/No 53/33 is a massively positive number for BJP.  The 2024 BJP campaign should just be shouting "Muslim, Muslim, Muslim" over and over again.

[jaichind]

In the 2018 Meghalaya assembly elections INC won 21 seats out of 60 seats. This made INC the largest party in 2018.  The number of INC MLAs that will run for re-election for INC is zero.

Out of the 21 INC winners of 2018

7 joined AITC with 6 of them running for re-election as AITC (one, a former INC CM, has his daughter running as AITC in his seat)
6 joined NPP and will run for re-election as NPP
4 joined UDP and will run for re-election as UDP
1 joined BJP and will run for re-election as BJP
3 passed away

And if you think the INC list of candidates will have no incumbents you will be wrong.  It turns out that the single NCP MLA elected in 2018 has defected to INC and will most likely run for INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/nitish-targets-kushwaha-says-can-leave-the-day-he-wants-to-101674668945137.html

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar asks 'close aide' Upendra Kushwaha to quit JD(U). Why?"

In Bihar, we are entering into round 3 of Upendra Kushwaha's rebellion against JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar.  Upendra Kushwaha who is a caste leader of the influential Kushwaha caste was a protégé of Nitish Kumar and followed Nitish Kumar throughout his career in the 1980s and 1990s. 

In 2007 Upendra Kushwaha wanted to be Nitish Kumar's political successor and sensed that this was not in Nitish Kumar's plans split and founded RSP.  The two reconciled later in 2007 and RSP was merged back into JD(U)

In 2013  Upendra Kushwaha rebelled again and formed RLSP.  JD(U) split with BJP in 2013 was convenient for Upendra Kushwaha since he was able to ally with BJP.  This changed in 2017 when JD(U) returned to its alliance with BJP which given the Nitish Kumar-Upendra Kushwaha hostility lead  Upendra Kushwaha to join the RJD-INC alliance for the 2019 LS elections.  Upendra Kushwaha split from UPA for the 2020 assembly elections and ran alone.   In 2021 Upendra Kushwaha reconciled with Nitish Kumar and merged RLDP into JD(U) becoming in many ways the #2 in JD(U)

Now in 2023, after Nitish Kumar split with BJP in 2022, Upendra Kushwaha  sees a chance to re-run the 2013 playbook and perhaps go over to the BJP again so he is raising the banner of rebellion against Nitish Kumar and will leave JD(U) soon with his own faction with the clear result that his new party will align with BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/cpi-m-mla-cong-leader-to-join-bjp-ahead-of-tripura-assembly-polls-123012700609_1.html

"CPI(M) MLA, Cong leader to join BJP ahead of Tripura Assembly polls"

Both are pretty cynical defections.

CPM MLA Moboshar Ali, who is a Muslim, won in 2018 in a 3-way race between INC CPM and BJP in the heavy Muslim and old INC stronghold Kailashahar. As part of the Left Front-INC alliance CPM gave this seat to INC.  In response, CPM MLA  Moboshar Ali now defects to BJP and will most likely run for BJP.

INC leader Billal Mia ran for INC in also Muslim heavy Boxanagar in both 2013 and 2018, losing to CPM in 2013 and losing to a Muslim BJP candidate in 2018 where he won a somewhat credible 5.5% of the vote while in the rest of Tripura INC mostly won 1%-2% of the vote.  Clearly, he was hoping to run this time for INC with Left Front support.  But the Left Front-INC alliance gave this seat to CPM so now he rebels and join BJP and I guess will try to get the BJP nomination as opposed to the incumbent BJP MLA (who is a Muslim.)

[jaichind]

Modi didn’t have to mastermind anything. He incited them, he ensured police wouldn’t stop them, and the local courts and police under his party’s control prevented the prosecution of the perpetrators. That’s complicity
That’s crimes against the human race

Full disclosure I haven’t seen the BBC doc, but I’ve been waiting so damn long for anyone to give a damn that India is run by a mass murdering crypto-fascist that I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

The pattern of law enforcement in India, especially in the North and West, is that the caste/community identity of the police officer relative to the caste/community identity of the perpetrator and victim plays a large role.  Modi did not invent that and has limited abilities to override.  Just because the police during the 2002 Gujarat riots were ineffective and in many cases just watched as the riots go on does not mean they were ordered to do so by Modi.  The mostly all-Hindu police in Gujarat clearly had a default behavior pattern and that is what played out.  In theory, Modi could have, with massive political cost, could have done more to stop the riots but I think that was most likely above and beyond what he was, in reality, capable of.

The 2002 Gujarat riots are by no means unprecedented in India.  Even in Gujarat, the 1969 riots were clearly worse.    In 1969 Gujarat had an INC(O) CM and all in all were political opponents of the Hindu nationalists that took part in the riots.  Just like in 2002, the Gujarat police were ineffective in stopping the riots.  Just like in 2002, the role of the police was questioned after the fact and most post-riot investigations just less to "he said, she said" type reports where everyone had an excuse why the failure to stop the riots was not their fault.

In fact, in the aftermath of the 1969 riots the Hindu and Muslum populations started to live in different neighborhoods which actually indirectly help reduce the level of violence in 2002 since a lot of the 2002 riots took place in mixed neighborhoods in which there were a lot less of in 2002 when compared to 1969.

[jaichind]

Other info from India Today C-Voter Mood the Nation poll

Who should be Modi's successor in the BJP
Amit Shah          26
Yogi Adityanath   25
Nitin Gadkari       16

After 2024 and around 2026-2027 when I think Modi will retire, it will be fun to see who wins the Amit Shah-Yogi Adiyanath battle.  Who Modi favors will play a massive role.

For LS elections the tidbits that came out are

1) Bihar, UPA 25 out of 40 seats with 47% of the vote -> RJD-JD(U)-INC-Left alliance gets the upper hand over BJP
2) Maharastra, UPA 34 out of 48 seats with 48% of the vote -> SHS(U)-INC-NCP alliance defeats BJP-BSHS
3) Karnataka, UPA 17 out of 28 seats with 43% of the vote -> INC defeats BJP
4) Assam, NDA  12 out of 14 seats -> Hindu consolidation gives a near sweep for BJP with Muslim vote split between INC and AIUDF
5) Telangana, BJP 6 out of 14 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019
6) WB BJP 20 out of 42 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019 when many expect a BJP implosion
7) UP NDA 70 out of 80  -> NDA gains 6 seats from 2019 due to the split of SP and BSP
8 ) AP -> TDP 10 out of 25 seats, which means YSRCP wins 15

This list seems pretty close to CW.  The odd one out is WB which, given organizational decay, one would expect BJP to lose seats from its massive 2019 performance.  This poll has BJP gaining 2 seats which is massive.

[jaichind]

I wonder if this chart has anything to do with BBC's recent concern about Muslims in India.

[jaichind]

https://www.opindia.com/2023/01/kamal-hasaans-party-makkal-needhi-maiam-to-merge-with-congress-to-fight-hindutva/

"After meeting Rahul Gandhi, Kamal Hasaan’s party ‘Makkal Needhi Maiam kills Makkal Needhi Maiam’, to merge with Congress to ‘fight Hindutva’"

TN's Left-Liberal MNM led by actor Kamal Hassan will merge into INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.socialnews.xyz/2023/01/27/tripuras-tipra-to-contest-feb-16-polls-alone-makes-all-parties-anxious/

"Tripura’s TIPRA to contest Feb 16 polls alone, makes all parties anxious"

With both BJP and Left Front-INC refusing to commit to Greater Tripraland TIPRA will contest alone.  This sets up BJP vs TIPRA in tribal seats and BJP vs Left Front-INC in Bengali seats.  BJP, by talking to TIPRA about Tripraland until the last minute, gave up some of its strategic advantage in the Bengali seats by projecting itself as the Bengali party.

[jaichind]

Other info from India Today C-Voter Mood the Nation poll

For LS elections the tidbits that came out are

1) Bihar, UPA 25 out of 40 seats with 47% of the vote -> RJD-JD(U)-INC-Left alliance gets the upper hand over BJP
2) Maharastra, UPA 34 out of 48 seats with 48% of the vote -> SHS(U)-INC-NCP alliance defeats BJP-BSHS
3) Karnataka, UPA 17 out of 28 seats with 43% of the vote -> INC defeats BJP
4) Assam, NDA  12 out of 14 seats -> Hindu consolidation gives a near sweep for BJP with Muslim vote split between INC and AIUDF
5) Telangana, BJP 6 out of 14 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019
6) WB BJP 20 out of 42 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019 when many expect a BJP implosion
7) UP NDA 70 out of 80  -> NDA gains 6 seats from 2019 due to the split of SP and BSP
8 ) AP -> TDP 10 out of 25 seats, which means YSRCP wins 15

This list seems pretty close to CW.  The odd one out is WB which, given organizational decay, one would expect BJP to lose seats from its massive 2019 performance.  This poll has BJP gaining 2 seats which is massive.

Over the poll has

NDA 298 (BJP 284) UPA 153 (INC 68) Others 92.  Going by the info they gave above and doing some reverse engineering I concluded

1) BJP still dominates in the Hindi heartland and Gujarat.  INC makes tiny gains there.
2) INC only does well when they are in alliance with other large parties (Bihar, Maharashtra, Jharkhand) and even there they help their allies but underperform in their own seats.
3) UPA does well in Deep South just like in 2019 even as Left Front regains a bit of ground in Kerala and the AIADMK-BJP bloc regains some ground in TN.  BJP seems to outperform in TN even as AIADMK underperforms.
4) NE still continues to be dominated by NDA
5) NDA allies underperform (BSHS in Maharashtra) or are totally dependent on BJP (AD in UP, JJP in Haryana, AGP in Assam)

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/visakhapatnam/bjp-not-keen-to-ally-with-tdp-in-andhra-pradesh/articleshow/97295553.cms

"BJP not keen to ally with TDP in Andhra Pradesh"

It seems for now the JSP idea of a TDP-JSP-BJP alliance in AP is not supported by the BJP.  But there is plenty of time between now and 2024.  BJP will most likely seek out YSRCP or TDP to be an ally for the 2024 elections.  BJP might prefer YSRCP but BJP ally JSP clearly prefers TDP so the deadlock will continue.

[jaichind]

https://www.eastmojo.com/tripura/2023/01/27/tripura-ex-tmc-president-cpim-mla-join-bjp-for-party-ticket/

"Tripura: Ex-TMC president, CPIM MLA join BJP for party ticket"

Head of Tripura AITC Subal Bhowmik re-defects to BJP.

Subal Bhowmik was with INC but defected to BJP in 2016.  He was farsighted since he saw the BJP surge come and became he joined BJP fairly early in their surge he was made BJP VP of Tripura.  He ran and won on the BJP ticket in the 2018 assembly elections.  After he was denied an LS ticket in 2019 he defected back to INC to run for INC and was defeated by the BJP candidate.   Then he joined AITC and became the head of the AITC in Tripura.   Then he saw that AITC will go nowhere so he now defected back to BJP and most likely run for the same seat he won on the BJP ticket in 2018.  All well that ends well.

The speech he gave when re-joining BJP is

After PM Modi came to power at the Centre, Tripura has been recognised and development of the state has taken place. The work of 6 National Highways is underway in a small state like Tripura. Tripura has also got an international airport under the leadership of the Prime Minister. PM Modi took the Northeast to the international platform

In 2021 when he joined AITC his speech was

Now, it is possible to form a government in Tripura under the leadership of Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee in the 2023 assembly elections. I am 100 percent sure

All of which fits with my generic newspaper article on Indian politician defection.  All the newspaper editor has to do is fill in the names to fit with the particular defection

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasingly autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

[jaichind]

The BJP Tripura candidate list is mostly out.  Other than a few sitting MLAs and those that defected to INC or TIPRA, most 2018 winners were re-nominated.    BJP left out a few difficult seats and some seats that IPFT ran in 2018.  I think the basic idea for those IPFT seats is for BJP to wait for the TIPRA candidate to come out.  Some IPFT MLAs might be left high and dry and will run back to run for BJP.

Still, overall not a house cleaning by the BJP.  It seems BJP will try to win by holding on to the traditional INC vote and hoping the power of federal subsidies can power them to victory over clear anti-incumbency on the ground.  A big house cleaning risks massive rebellions by sitting MLAs (most of which do not have roots with BJP anyway) even if that mitigates local anti-incumbency.

So the next shoe to drop would be the TIPRA list.

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/looks-like-operation-lotus-is-on-tipra-chief-claims-ipft-leaders-not-picking-up-calls-tripura-assembly-elections-1578562

"Looks Like 'Operation Lotus' Is On: TIPRA Chief Claims IPFT Leaders Not Picking Up Calls"

TIPRA claims that suddenly IPFT has gone silent on seat-sharing/merger talks and that most likely BJP used $$$ to get IPFT back into NDA>  The main problem with that narrative is that it seems BJP plans to contest all 60 seats.  It could be BJP is going to buy SOME IPFT leaders to run as BJP but not buying the entire party.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/election/tripura-polls-bjp-ipft-alliance-to-continue-five-seats-given-to-ipft-1185521.html

"Tripura polls: BJP-IPFT alliance to continue, five seats given to IPFT"

In Tripura, IPFT went back to NDA but will be given only 5 seats versus the 9 it got in 2018.  It seems IPFT must have been offered 2-3 seats by TIPRA and decided to go back to BJP even if it is a bad deal compared to 2018.  The fact is a good part of the IPFT base has gone over to TIPRA.  I doubt it will win any of the 5 seats it was given.

[jaichind]

TIPRA nominates 20 candidates so far.  8 are in non-tribal seats and we know they will run in all 20 tribal seats so that means TIPRA will nominate at least 28 candidates.  Most likely they will be at 35-40 seats when they are done since there are around 15-20 non-tribal seats where there is some number of tribals.


Ecological inference in tribal seats has the BJP getting a big swing in 2018 with tribals.  So TIPRA running in non-tribal seats tend to hit the BJP more.

Separately INC was given 13 seats by Left Front but they will run in 5 other seats where the Left Front is running.  I looked, those 5 seats were most likely going to go BJP no matter what so this was an INC move to try to preserve what is left of their base.

My current guess for Tripura's results are

BJP         26
CPM        16
TIPRA     15
INC          3

Most likely post-election BJP find a way to rope in TIPRA to form the government with inducements of office and federal subsidies.

[jaichind]

India TV LS poll has NDA 298 (BJP 284) which is a clone of the India Today MOTN C-Voter survey.  I assume both media outlets used C-Voter to do the polling ergo they get the same result.

[jaichind]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CkuDD8ZC0o&ab_channel=NDTV

NDTV video pointed out that in the leadup to the Meghalaya assembly election, 20 out of 60 MLAs jumped ship to run for another party.   Of course, the same was true for the 2018 assembly elections as well.

In Meghalaya 20 of 60 MLA since they were elected in 2013 had switched sides making a farce of the Anti-Defection law.

[jaichind]

https://www.tripuratimes.com/ttimes/brother-sister-face-off-in-badharghat-lt-mla-dilip-sarkar%E2%80%99s-siblings-nominated-as-bjp-congress-candidates-5991.html

"Brother Sister Face-off in Badharghat: Lt MLA Dilip Sarkar’s Siblings nominated as BJP, Congress candidates"

In the Tripura seat of Badharghat, the 2018 BJP winner and long-time INC leader turned defector Dilip Sarkar passed away in 2019 and the BJP nominated his sister to run in the by-election and won.  Now she is running for re-election INC nominated her brother Raj Kumar Sarkar to run against his sister.

The sister focuses on carrying out her brother's legacy while her older brother focuses on the fact that their deceased brother was with INC his entire life and that his legacy is with the INC.

[jaichind]

Are the recent news about Adani Group such as closeness to Modi/BJP and allegations of market manipulation are having any impact in India?

I was about to write about that. 
I think it hurts the Modi economic reformer narrative.  But that will only hurt the BJP with the urban upper middle class vote which is fairly small part of Modi's base.  The harm will more be about less money that the  Adani Group can donate to BJP in the coming years.

[jaichind]

Looks like TIPRA will run 42 candidates in the Tripura assembly elections.  I will be very interested to see how many tribal votes they pull in in non-tribal seats.

[jaichind]

The percent of the Indian budget that goes to interest is surprisingly high.  The good news for India is that with a fairly high structure inflation nominal GDP growth is fairly high which can help deflate the real value of outstanding debt which I guess is one of the reasons why interest payments have to be high.