India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

Mandalgarh assembly results



INC          39.5%
BJP           32.2%
INC rebel  22.8%

The INC rebel is aligned with rising INC leader Sachin Pilot (close to Rahul Gandhi) who is a rival to 2 time INC CM of Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot.  The INC candidate that got nominated was aligned with Ashok Gehlot so with the INC vote split there did not seem to be much of a chance for INC.  But it tuned out that the swing against BJP was so large that the INC candidate won anyway despite the INC rebel. 

The INC high command will have to make a decision soon on who to project as CM in Rajasthan.  Most likely it will be  Sachin Pilot.

[jaichind]

The good news for the BJP is that its defeat in Rajasthan by-elections was overshadowed in the news cycle with the announcement of the annual federal budget.    The budget is clearly an election year populist budget with increases of farm subsidies, free cooking oil and free healthcare for the poor.  In theory healthcare are already suppose to be free but due to lack of supply in reality the poor does not get any healthcare.

[jaichind]

After the 2004 elections an UPA government took over at the federal level while INC-JD(S) took over at the Karnataka level.  Soon tensions broke out in JD(S) over its strategy relative to INC.  Siddaramaiah who was DCM was leading the pro-INC faction while Deve Gowda's son Kumaraswamy led the anti-INC faction with de facto support from Deve Gowda. 

In 2005 things came to ahead with Siddaramaiah breaking with Deve Gowda and leaving JD(S).  After some time he joined INC.  This eventually led to a crisis between INC and JD(S) in early 2006 with Kumaraswamy leading a "rebellion" within JD(S) and took JD(S) out of its alliance with INC.  Kumaraswamy then formed a BJP-JD(S) alliance.  Deve Gowda blessed this implicitly by taking no action to stop his son but did not endorse his son's action due to the fact that he still had national aspirations and needed to project an anti-BJP image.  In the meantime party hopper Bangarappa quit BJP in 2005 and ran for his old seat on the SP ticket which he won.

The BJP-JD(S) deal had a CM rotation system where Kumaraswamy will be CM with Yeddyurappa as DCM for a year and a half followed by a swap.  When the time was up for Kumaraswamy to yield to Yeddyurappa in late 2007 BJP-JD(S) conflict flared up.  After Yeddyurappa took over for a week Kumaraswamy claimed that Yeddyurappa policies violated the BJP-JD(S) agreement and pulled out of the alliance leaving the BJP without a majority.  This paved the way for 2008 mid-term elections.

BJP which by now pretty much took over all of the JD(U) vote base pretty much cast aside JD(U) which by now has no mass leader and has become an irrelevant force.  BJP splinter KNP has since merged into JD(S) but it seems all things equal the voters blamed JD(S) for this crisis which lost a bit of ground to BJP which led BJP to win a small majority while INC kept its vote base.

Karnataka 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC           222               80                34.76%

INC rebel                         3                 1.24%

JD(S)+      220               28               19.05%

JD(S) rebel                      1                 0.33%

BJP           224            110                33.86%

BJP rebel      2                0                  0.99%

BSP          217               0                   2.74%

SP            121               0                   0.93%

SKP           21               0                    0.40%

CPM+        19               0                    0.35%  (CPI was part of CPM+)

JD(U)        72               0                    0.33%

Overall BJP won despite having a smaller vote share than INC mostly based on a small but relevent swing from JD(S) to BJP.  Bangarappa who is now the leader of SP in Karnataka actually ran against Yeddyurappa with de facto INC and JD(S) support was beaten badly.  With a small BJP majority Yeddyurappa now formed the government.

When the 2009 LS elections came around a year later the JD(S) decline continued as the battle nationally was seen as a INC vs BJP battle.  The BJP seems to have benefited more from the JD(S) decline and improved on its position relative to 2004.

Karnataka 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28               6                 37.65%

JD(S)+       23               3                 13.75% (CPM and CPI were part of JD(S)+)

BJP            28             19                  41.63%

BSP           28              0                   1.66%

Nationally there was a swing toward INC from BJP and as usual Karnataka swung in the opposite direction.    Bangarappa actually rejoined INC by this election and ran on the INC ticket losing to Yeddyurappa's son who ran on the BJP ticket.

[jaichind]

So the new Modi/BJP budget has a plan to create "Modicare" which will cover low income 100 million families (around 500 million people).  Each family will pay a premium of around $17 a year and have coverage that goes up to around $7800 which is actually a lot given the low cost of healthcare.  I think this is only meant to cover serious aliments so in many ways works more like a catastrophic health insurance plan in the USA.   The federal budget allocates in 2017-2018 around $3 per family to be covered which obviously not enough but I guess this money is to get started and once this gets going they will allocate more funds next year (after the 2019 elections of course.)

The long term plan seems to be federal funding of around $11 per family covered and the each state cover the rest so this has aspects of Medicare to it expect for Modi being much more stingy than Obama.  Of course this plan does not really address how to increase supply of healthcare since even with insurance coverage a lot of times Indians cannot find anyone to provide healthcare where they live.

[jaichind]

Much has been made in media about the BJP strong performance in WB by-elections pushing CPM to third place.  That might very well be the place by the BJP has a track record of overperforming in WB by-election only to drop down to a lower level of support once the general election comes.  We can look at the 3 assembly by-elections in 2014 and 2015 in between the 2014 LS election and the 2016 WB assembly election.  We can look at how BJP did in that assembly segment in 2014 LS election, the by-election and then the 2016 assembly election.

Basirhat Dakshin
2014 LS
AITC      79.7K   41.4%
BJP        54.1K   28.1%
AIFB      49.0K   25.5%  (CPM ally)
INC         4.5K     2.4%

2014 assembly by-election
BJP        71.0K    37.4%
AITC      69.4K    36.6%
CPM       24.8K    13.1%
INC        22.0K    11.6%

2016 assembly election
AITC       88.1K    41.0%
BJP        64.0K    29.8%
INC        57.0K    26.6% (supported by CPM)


Chowrangee
2014 LS
INC        36.0K    31.7%
AITC       34.4K    30.3%
BJP         29.5K    26.0%
CPM        10.8K     9.5%

2014 by-election
AITC       38.3K    39.7%
BJP         24.0K    24.8%
INC         23.3K    24.1%
CPM         8.9K      9.2%

2016 assembly
AITC       55.1K    48.2%
INC        41.9K     36.6%  (backed by CPM)
BJP        15.7K     13.7%


Krishnaganj
2014 LS election
AITC      97.8K     49.0%
CPM       61.0K     30.6%
BJP        29.0K     14.5%
INC         6.8K       3.4%

2015 by-election
AITC     95.5K      48.7%
BJP       58.4K      29.8%
CPM      37.6K      19.2%
INC        4.8K        2.5%

2016 assembly
AITC   111.6K      54.2%
CPM      70.7K      33.4%
BJP        17.6K       8.4%
INC         4.2K       2.0%

It seems the BJP by-election vote is mostly made up of the BJP voe plus pro-CPM anti-AITC voters that want to stick it to AITC but go back to CPM in any general election.

[jaichind]

It seems that BJP will form an alliance with NDPP (NPF splinter party), breaking the BJP alliance with NPF, and contest the Nagaland assembly elections.  Main issue is that they might be the only parties running since every other party are boycotting the election.  The seat share for now will be BJP 20 NDPP 40 which the local BJP is against as unjust. 

[jaichind]

In Nagaland it seems to be total chaos.  It seems now that BJP, INC, NPF and NDPP will all contest polls despite the boycott that they all agreed to.  The national BJP worked out an alliance with NPF splinter NDPP where the seat sharing will be NDPP 40 BJP 20.  The Nagaland BJP seems to reject this deal and are still in talks with NPF for an alliance.  It seems it will go nowhere since NPF is only willing to give BJP 2 or maybe up to 5 seats.  So the election will be a 3 way battle of NPF vs INC vs (BJP-NDPP).  Of course while these parties have released names of candidates, none of them have registered for fear that the first candidates to register will become targets of the  NSCN insurgency that has called for a boycott of these elections until the peace process is complete.

What is also problematic about the "peace process" was that the Central government-NSCN accord of 2015 has many provisions which are secrete which leads to many in Nagaland concerned about a "sellout" and many neighboring states fearing Modi sold them down the river by ceding their territory to a enlarged autonomous Nagaland in the future.

[jaichind]

With a day left, starting with the BJP, candidates are going ahead with registrations for Nagaland assembly elections.  So far no sign of violence yet from the  NSCN militants.   With BJP in an alliance with NPF splinter NDPP, there are also talks that there might be tactical alliance between INC and NPF in response in seats where one party is clearly stronger than the other.

[jaichind]

In Rajasthan, the BJP is in panic mode over the disastrous by-election results from a few days ago. There are talk of replacing 2 time BJP CM Vasundhara Raje



But it is an issue of TINA as BJP has no one else that can take her place to lead the BJP.

One fun fact about Vasundhara Raje.  She is the aunt of the INC CM candidate Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia for MP which will vote at the same time as Rajastahan later in 2018. 



The Scindia royal family historically has been associated with INC in the early 1950s and then BJS/BJP starting in the 1960s.  Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia's father Madhavrao Scindia bolted from his family in the 1980s to join INC.  His son is now the leader of the INC in MP and will be its CM candidate even as his aunt will be the BJP CM candidate for Rajasthan.

[jaichind]

After the 2009 LS elections, the Karnataka BJP regime started to show cracks.  First a bunch of corruption scandals hit CM Yeddyurappa.  As a result pressured mounted within the BJP for Yeddyurappa to resign as the Karnataka BJP fractured between pro- and anti- Yeddyurappa factions.  In the meantime a bloc within the BJP tied to a force led by "The Reddy Brothers" also became an independent force.  The Reddy brothers the money men behind the BJP and active in Karnataka BJP to protect their mining interests.  The Reddy brothers are also active in AP politics but back the INC there to protect their businesses in AP.  Eventually in 2011 Yeddyurappa was forced to reign by the BJP.  Without the protection of being CM Yeddyurappa was arrested in late 2011 but was soon released. The anti-Yeddyurappa faction that took over also had a falling out with the Reddy brothers.  As a result Yeddyurappa left the BJP and formed a BJP splinter KJP while the Reddy brothers split from the BJP and formed BSRCP.

In the meantime Bangarappa had left INC again and joined JD(S) but pass away in late 2011 ending his long career as a party hopper.

As the 2013 Karnataka assembly election approached and the BJP split into 3 pieces it was clear that INC had the advantage.  There were several INC claimants to the CM candidate role and INC high command decided on a compromise candidate of Siddaramaiah who had defected from JD(S) a few years earlier.  The 2013 Karnataka assembly election result was a solid victory for the INC.

Karnataka 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC           224              122             36.59%

INC rebel                          4              1.83%

JD(S)        222                40             20.19%

JS(S) rebel                       0               0.59%

BJP+        224                40             20.02%

BJP rebel                         5               1.74%

KJP          204                  6              9.79%

BSRCP     176                  4              2.69%

SKP            6                  1               0.35%

SP            27                  1               0.34%

KMP           7                  1               0.18%

BSP        175                 0                0.91%

There were signs of some BJP-JD(S) tactical voting to reduce the size of the INC victory as INC got less seats than the vote share victory margin would imply.  With the INC victory Siddaramaiah became CM.   In the aftermath of the 2013 assembly elections and with Modi taking over the BJP at the center, Yeddyurappa worked toward rejoining BJP by merging KJP into it. given the fact that Yeddyurappa is fairly close to Modi.  Most supporters of BSRCP also mostly went back to BJP.

As the 2014 LS election approached, it was clear that BJP led by Modi was going to win and the only question was the size of the NDA victory.  In   Karnataka there was an expectation that INC will do well given its strong performance in the 2013 assembly elections.  The result was that INC did get gains but the BJP under the Modi wave captured a good part of the JD(S) vote as well as other non-INC voter minimize the swing from 2009 toward INC and win a majority of the seats.

Karnataka 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                9                41.15%

JD(S)         26                2                11.16%  (SDPI was part of JD(S))

BJP            28              17                43.37%

BSP           28                0                 0.86%

AAP           28                0                 0.83%

Once again Karnataka went against the national trend.  INC saw a large swing against it from 2009 at the national level losing power to BJP but in   Karnataka while the Modi wave did carry BJP to victory the INC made gains in terms of vote share and seats versus BJP from 2009.   Of course both gained at the expense of JD(S) who was marginalized. 

With Siddaramaiah at the helm, S. M. Krishna hopes of becoming CM again had be dashed.  In 2017 S. M. Krishna defected to BJP boosting BJP chances with the Vokkaliga vote.

[jaichind]

In Karnataka it seems JD(S) formed an alliance with BSP where the 224 seats will be shared 204 for JD(S) and 20 for BSP.   JS(S) kingpin Deve Gowda arranged for this alliance to try to avoid being marginalized in an election that seems to be set up as a INC vs BJP battle.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-political-economy-of-a-nagaland-election/story-WjKnp0QmedGsF7gtK1qV0I.html

"The political economy of a Nagaland election"

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Which would put the cost of a Nagaland election for an MLA spot around $1.2 million. 

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So the cost a vote would be around $40

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Which would work out to around $40-$60 a vote.

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The entire Nagaland political economy revolves around federal subsidies in which the insurgency plays a big part in helping the political elite to extract extra money by increasing violence when needed.

[jaichind]

Tripura News X- Jan Ki Baat opinion poll has BJP-IPFT now ahead of CPM+ with INC totally collapsing.



                Seats
BJP-IPFT      34
CPM+          26
INC               0

It seems the entire anti-Left Front vote has consolidated behind BJP-IPFT

[jaichind]

Wow. Doesn't the Left Front have a massive majority in the Tripura Assembly currently?

Correct.  Tripura is 70% Bengali and 30% Tribal.  CPM+, given its strength in WB, has always attracted the Bengali vote with INC getting a small fraction of the Bengali vote but with tribal IPFT will get the Christian Tribal vote.  In 2013 it was

Tripura 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share           

CPM+         60               50             52.4%  (CPI RSP AIFB were part of CPM+)

INC+          60               10             44.1%  (IPFT were part of INC+)

BJP            50                 0               1.5%

CPM+ has dominated Tripura since 1977 with the exception of the 1988 assembly election where INC+ won in a very narrow victory even while losing the popular vote

Tripura 1988 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share           

CPM+         60               28             48.9%  (CPI RSP AIFB were part of CPM+)

INC+          60               32             47.8%  (TUJS which is proto-IPFT were part of INC+)

This time around AITC will be running and is eating into the CPM+ and INC Bengali vote share.  But BJP was able to appeal to Bengalis on the basis of Hindu consolidation and make itself the main anti-CPM party.  As a result IPFT joined up with the BJP bring with it the tribal vote and now will give CPM+ the biggest challenge since 1988.

[jaichind]

It seems that given recent reverses in Gujarat and Rajasthan, the BJP is in a bit of a panic in Maharashtra with the prospect of SHS leaving NDA in 2019 AND INC-NCP alliance holding up.   There seems to be talks between NCP and SHS for tactical alliances in 2019 LS and Maharashtra assembly elections where it might turn into everyone ganging up on BJP that has the BJP leadership alarmed.

The panic seems to be translating into the BJP trying to lure back SHS with an offer to share the Maharashtra assembly election seats 50/50.  I suspect this is not good enough as SHS now might think it has BJP on the run.  SHS will most likely demand a seat share allocation similar to pre-2014 norms before the Modi wave and the installation of the BJP CM.   Another SHS demand which BJP might have to accept would be sidelining of Narayan Rane (ex-SHS CM of  Maharashtra.)   Narayan Rane who was  SHS CM Maharashtra in the late 1990s since broke with SHS and defected to INC in 2005 in hopes that INC will make him CM again.  He then recently defected from INC to BJP which only served to anger SHS that BJP took him in.  Main problem with BJP doing this is the recently growth of BJP in Maharashtra is buttressed by various local barons signing up with BJP.  Pushing  Narayan Rane  aside to please SHS might serve to deter other defections and give other recent defectors on where they standing in their new party. 

[jaichind]

Tripura's IPFT main demand is the creation of a separate Tribal state craved out of Tripura which is quite alarming to the Bengali majority.  The BJP-IPFT surge is based on its appeal as the main anti-CPM bloc.  On the other hand if it seems BJP-IPFT might win, then there might be a counter-consolidation of Bengali voters that would have voted for AITC and INC toward CPM+.

BJP and IPFT are sharing the 60 seats BJP 51 IPFT 9.  All 9 IPFT candidates it seems have serious criminal cases against them (murder, attempted murder etc etc) which I suspect is due to the lawless nature of backward tribal areas.

[jaichind]

INC's position in Nagaland seems pretty weak as the election is turning mostly into a NPF vs NDPP-BJP fight.  NDPP is running against "15 years of NPF misrule."   Main problem with that is pretty much all NDPP members were senior members of NPF until just few months ago.  Also NDPP leader Neiphiu Rio was the CM of Nagaland for 11 out of the 15 years that NPF was in charge of Nagaland so when NDPP talks about "15 years of NPF misrule" they are really just talking about themselves.

[jaichind]

There is a movement in Nagaland to push back on vote buying.


It is mostly going nowhere as the real election campaign are the battle in the vote buying market.  The cost of a viable campaign is over $1 million per seat.  INC is only now running 18 seats out of 60 mostly due to lack of funds.  NPF and its splinter NDPP both have resources due to their tenure in office.  The BJP has resources from its status as the national ruling party.  It seems NPF will form an alliance with BJP Northeast ally NPP as well as JD(U) mostly to pull resources.  After the election it could very well be that NPF and BJP will reform their alliance if NDPP-BJP fail for capture a majority.

[jaichind]

In Karnataka it seems JD(S) who has formed an alliance with BSP and given it 20 seats has also roped in NCP who will most likely contest 5-7 seats.  JD(S) could potentially do fairly well in the assembly election.

The trend in Karnataka so far is if an incumbent regime had a change in CM since being elected (1983, 1989, 1994, 1999, and 2013) then the ruling party is soundly defeated with an opposition party winning a majority.  If the incumbent regime manages to keep the same CM the entire 5 year term then it is usually a fractured mandate (2004.)  INC managed to keep the same CM the last 5 years so we could be seeing a fractured mandate with no party having a majority.   In such a case JD(S) will come in third but will hold the balance of power.

[jaichind]

Tripura vote over.  Turnout around 76% but most likely will go up over time as more votes come in.  This is a large drop in turnout from 2008 and 2013 when turnout where in the 92%-93% range.  If so then CPM might be in trouble.  The lower turnout is more likely to be part of the decline of the CPM turnout machine.  What CPM has to hope for now is the anti-Left vote is split between BJP-IPFT and INC.

[jaichind]

In Nagaland both INC and BJP have in their manifestos government paid for pilgrimage tour packages to Jerusalem.  The logic is simple.  Decade ago INC, in order to ensure that it gets the Muslim vote, came up with government paid Haj pilgrims to Mecca.  Then both the INC and BJP came up with similar schemes for Hindu pilgrimages to various temples to "make sure no religion is being given preferential treatment."   Now the same logic comes to Christian Nagaland where now there are promises for the government to pay for pilgrimage tour packages to Jerusalem.

[jaichind]

In the end, once all the vote casts are accounted for (but not counted), the Tripura turnout was around 92% which is pretty much the same as 2008 and 2013.   Is so then I suspect the chances of CPM coming out ahead seems stronger.  Of course the BJP can also hope for a total consolidation of the anti-Left vote around BJP-IPFT.

[jaichind]

Pre-election surveys in Tripura 3 TV channels are

Anti-CPM Vanguard News have it as

BJP-IPFT       33
CPM              27
INC               0


Anti-CPM Headlines Tripura (Tripura News X- Jan Ki Baat)

BJP-IPFT      34
CPM+          26
INC               0



Pro-CPM Aakash Tripura has it at

BJP-IPFT      23
CPM+          37
INC               0

It seems that all of them agree that INC will go to zero and that the CPM+ performance of 50 out of 60 seats in 2013 will not be repeated.

Given the higher turnout my gut feeling is that CPM+ still pull this out.  Something like

                  Vote
                 Share         Seats           
BJP-IPFT      39%          25
CPM+          44%          35
INC             15%            0

[jaichind]

In Meghalaya 20 of 60 MLA since they were elected in 2013 had switched sides making a farce of the Anti-Defection law.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/agartala/tripura-woman-votes-against-cpm-in-laws-kill-her/articleshow/63052150.cms

Tripura woman votes 'against CPM', in-laws kill her

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