Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[jaichind]

Gomes is underperforming pre-election polls.  This could be a last-minute Gomes->Lula tactical voting or as more Left-friendly areas come in his vote share will rise.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro at 47.35% with 35% vote counted.  At this rate, he will not fall to 44% by 50% of the vote counted which is needed by my estimate for Lula to get to 50%

[jaichind]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

As much as I want Bolsonaro to win he will not.

[jaichind]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

[jaichind]

Another interesting thing, the rate of invalid/blank votes has gone down significantly.
2018 : 8.79%
2022 : 4.04%
Clear evidence of polarization in the electorate.

Also the vote for the other candidates is much lower. This looks much closer to a 2nd round election.

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

Is that necessarily true though? The best other candidate seems centre-right. There is no large reservoir of leftist voters left for Lula to mine.

But even in such a case, the Left vote > Right vote and given the personality factor is in favor of Lula he will win in such a situation.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1576701179555635200

I almost think this guy is reading the thread lol

He absolutely does, he copied several posts of mine on previous elections. I don't mind though.

Imitation of the best form of flattery.

[jaichind]

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more friendly towards Russia than Bolsonaro?

I think Bolsonaro ended up being more pro-Russia than expected so I assume Russia's policy does not change.  Bolsonaro and Lula might be pro-Russia for different reasons but the net policy is the same.

[jaichind]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

At 52% of the vote counted  Bolsonaro is at 46.3% which is a bit lower than I had guessed.  My next guess is that based on historical patterns he will be at 43.3% at the end.

If so it should be

Lula         48.0%
Bolsonaro 43.3%

For first round

[jaichind]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

[jaichind]

The slightly bad news for Lula is that he will likely miss winning in the first round with Gomes only at 3%.    I think this opens Bolsonaro to keep the second round close (like 52-48.)  This potential narrow second round means Bolsonaro can try or hope for some hail mary plays between now and the second round.  Maybe there might be another crazy assassin?

[jaichind]

If Bolsonaro can pull off an overperformance in the second round and lose narrowly then perhaps there might be a chance of a Bolsonaro trying for a comeback in 2026.

[jaichind]

Sounds like the runoff is going to be very close… some type of Peru 2021 election

I am sure the first polls will have Lula ahead by 10.  It could be that Bolsonaro can outperform polls again and get pretty close.  I am skeptical Bolsonaro can get it to Peru 2021 close.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro at 44.7% with 86% in.  The last 10% of the Brazil count is always brutal for the Right.  I figure that this means Bolsonaro will be at 43.1% at the end.  This would put Lula most likely around 48.3%

[jaichind]

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro at 44.7% with 86% in.  The last 10% of the Brazil count is always brutal for the Right.  I figure that this means Bolsonaro will be at 43.1% at the end.  This would put Lula most likely around 48.3%

What percentage of the last 10% is Lula expected to win

According to my math, he’d need 80% of that last 8% to be counted to make it 50.01

I expect Bolsonaro to lose around 1% of his vote share in the last 10% of the count.

[jaichind]

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006). 

[jaichind]

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006).  

Usually candidates outperform their first round share in the second round, yes.

I mean relative to what vote share Lula would be expected to get given what other candidates got in the first round.

[jaichind]

Man, polling is a joke. A joke.

We are looking at a *8 point* polling miss in the Brazilian election

To be fair Globe Elections UN final poll had a 4.2% lead for Lula which matches his current lead.  Perhaps Globe Elections UN is the Trafalgar of Brazil?

[jaichind]

Turnout isn't up. In fact, turnout had a slight drop in share of 0.6%, 79.1% this year, compared with the 79.7% in 2018.

What? Then how come we had massive lines at voting stations which led to a lower count speed?  I guess it is about the absolute number of voters?

[jaichind]

Gomes made a very very short statement to the press. He said he is “extremely worried” about what’s happening in the country, and asked for a few more hours so he can talk to friends and allies before speaking further.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro now also crosses 50 million

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

The reason is that second-round polls will clearly show Bolsonaro well behind Lula.  For the Bolsonaro camp to make sure their voters show up the polls have to be discredited.  Of course, the first round polls did not need much help to achieve this Bolsonaro camp goal.

[jaichind]

CNN Brasil, in classic US fashion and dragging its heels, just projected a second round, lol.

I guess they are still haunted by the USA 2000 fiasco

[jaichind]

Looking at these results it seems had Lula not run then Bolsonaro would have won re-election in the second round.