India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Some good WB data from PoliticalBaba

Upper Caste, Muslims, and Dalits have high concentration here while OBC are fairly low percentage of the voting population



The decline of Left Front and rise of BJP is really about the shift of the Upper Caste vote from Left Front to BJP since 2011 (this chart has a typo.  BJP did not get 50% of the Upper Caste vote in 2011, more like 15%)



In the meantime the Left Front Muslim vote has consolidated behind AITC

[jaichind]

Independent pollster Ankit Sharma poll of UP 1 year before next year's assembly election assuming a 4 way battle between BJP SP BSP and INC

              Seats    Vote share
BJP          218           35%
SP-RLD    108           27%
BSP          54            20%
INC          15              8%
Others       8



This poll has BJP narrowing winning re-election.  On the whole this feels mostly correct as BJP has a lot of problems on the ground, especially with its Upper Caste base.  On the other hand SP BSP INC are all pretty weak as well so a split in the anti-BJP vote should see BJP winning re-election which would be the first UP government re-elected since 1985.   I am bit skeptical that BSP can get to 20% and 54 seats though.  


Regional breakdown





UP really have to be viewed as East UP(Mostly Purvanchal) and West UP .  West UP is more like Delhi and Haryana while East UP is more like Bihar.  BJP CM Yogi Adityanath has his base in the East.  The weaker BJP performance in West UP is reflective of that as there are Upper Caste resentment of  Yogi Adityanath's more Thakur based rule.  2019 UP Upper Caste voted BJP due to Modi.  This time around Modi will not be on the ballot.

[jaichind]

A minor political news out of Kerala is instructive of why there are so many micro-parties in Kerala.

https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/kerala/mani-c-kappan-announces-new-party-nck--1.5461082

"Mani C Kappan announces new party 'NCK'"

The story is about how NCP which is in LDF in Kerala split with a splinter led by Mani C Kappan forming NCK and leading NCK to join UDF. 

The background of this split has to do with the death of K. M. Mani in 2019.  K. M. Mani was the founder of KEC in 1964 when it split from INC.  In 1977 when KEC split into many factions K. M. Mani formed KEC(Mani) which was part of UDF except for a brief stint in LDF in 1980 Kerala assembly elections.  When  K. M. Mani died in 2019 there was a battle over the control over KEC(Mani).  P. J. Joseph who used to lead KEC(Joseph) but merged his party into KEC(Mani) back in 2011 fought K. M. Mani's son Jose K. Mani for control of the party.  INC was clearly backing P. J. Joseph since he was seen as easier to control by INC than Jose K. Mani.  The by-election of the K. M. Mani's Pala assembly seat saw the KEC(Mani) candidate defeated by NCP's Mani C Kappan due to the growing civil war in KEC(Mani).  In the end KEC(Mani) split with Jose K. Mani taking over KEC(Mani) and shifting KEC(Mani) to join LDF while P. J. Joseph re-creating KEC(Joseph) and stayed in LDF.

The shift of  Jose K. Mani's KEC(Mani) to LDF led to another problem.  For this upcoming assembly election Jose K. Mani is claiming his father's old Pal assembly seat for himself.  LDF pressured NCP to accept this arrangement in seat sharing talks.  The current NCP MLA Mani C Kappan is thus left out in the cold.  He then decided to revolt and formed his how NCP splinter NCK and will join UDF.  So the Pala assembly battles last few cycles will be

2016
UDF KEC(M)  K. M. Mani
vs
LDF NCP Mani C. Kappan

2019 by election
UDF KEC(M) Jose Tom Pulikkunnel
vs
LDF NCP Mani C. Kappan

2021
UDF NCK Mani C. Kappan
vs
LDF KEC(M) Jose K. Mani

2021 will see the candidate/party flipped between the two fronts

This story is a microcosm of why there are so many micro parties in Kerala.  Since there are two (and now three) blocs any party that shift between one bloc and another is likely to trigger a faction splitting out to stay in the current bloc hoping to get from the bloc leader (INC for UDF, CPM for LDF, BJP for NDA) more relative power.  The prospect that such negotiations could lead to positive results incentives party split and party defections from one bloc to another, often clearly cynical.

The most cynical of such splinters and alliances is how RSPK(B) (Revolutionary Socialist Party of Kerala (Bolshevik)) which was a RSP splinter in the 2014-2016 period was actually an ally of BJP.  That the BJP, a Rightist Hindu nationalist party, can form an alliance with a party with the word Bolshevik in it shows the cynical nature of Kerala party splits and bloc defections.

[jaichind]

In Assam another example of candidate flip in Golaghat seat

In 2016 it was

INC Ajanta Neog    50.8%
BJP Bitupan Saikia 47.2%

Then we have

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ajanta-neog-rajdeep-gowala-join-bjp-ex-congress-mlas-join-bjp-in-assam-call-former-party-directionless-2345164

"Ex-Congress MLAs Join BJP In Assam, Call Former Party "Directionless""

back in Dec 2020 with Ajanta Neog joining the BJP who went on to announce yesterday that  Ajanta Neog  will be its candidate in Golaghat.   This only provoked

https://www.pratidintime.com/assam-elections-bjp-leader-bitupon-saikia-joins-congress/

"Assam Elections: BJP Leader Bitupon Saikia Joins Congress"

Where the BJP President of Golaghat  and 2016 BJP candidate Bitupan Saikia  joining INC

So in Golaghat we will go from

2016: INC Ajanta Neog  vs BJP Bitupan Saikia

to

2021 BJP Ajanta Neog vs INC  Bitupan Saikia

Golaghat is in Upper Assam and AIUDF is not that strong here so most likely Ajanta Neog will win just like in 2016 but on a different ticket.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/dmk-to-allot-25-seats-to-ally-congress-for-tamil-nadu-election-say-sources-2385237

"DMK To Allot 25 Seats To Ally Congress For Tamil Nadu Election: Sources"

In TN it seems DMK and INC worked out a deal for INC to contest 25 seats. 

SO in TN UPA seat sharing seems to be

DMK    186
INC       25
MDMK     6  (running on DMK symbol)
CPI         6
VCK        6
IUML       2
MMK       2

[jaichind]

Ormax Media poll on CM and PM ratings

WB CM at 55, Assam CM at 48, Kerala CM at 47, TM CM at 37


Modi at 61 in Assam, 53 in WB, 48 in Kerala, 33 in TN


These ratings gives you a sense which states are likely to flip.  TN looks almost certain to flip. Assam and Kerala possible flip and WB least likely to flip.

[jaichind]

In Assam AIUDF came out with their first list which has 16 candidates.



5 are friendly fights with INC.  All 5 are in heavy Muslims areas seems this split in the INC-AIUDF vote should not lead to a loss of the seat.  They are (with 2016 results)

Sarukhetri
INC             45.3
AGP            29.6
AIUDF         13.9


Jaleswar
AIUDF         43.9
INC rebel     38.6
BJP               9.0
INC              5.1


Dalgaon
INC            42.8
AIUDF        41.5
AGP           13.8


Chenga
INC            47.5
AIUDF        26.1
BJP            23.7


Baghbar  
INC            58.0
AIUDF        23.7
INC rebel    14.5
BJP              1.1

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/west-bengal/political-life-of-mithun-chakraborty-comes-full-circle/articleshow/81383333.cms

"Political life of Mithun Chakraborty comes full circle"

Talks about the political life of Bengali actor Mithun Chakraborty


His political views started involvement with the Maoist Naxalites but then moved toward backing the more conventional Left Front.  Then he switched his support to AITC and for a few years becoming a RS MP for AITC.  Yesterday he came out for BJP. 

His drift is less about a Rightward shift but more about opportunism.  His shift from Maoism to the conventional Left Front matched the rise of Left Front to power in 1977.  His shift to AITC also coincided with the rise of AITC culminating with AITC coming to power in 2011.  This time around it is clear that the BJP is on the rise in WB and that even if BJP does not win this time around they are almost certain to win in 2026. 

[jaichind]

In WB, AITC has nominated all 291 candidates (3 seats have been allocated to Gorkha based GJM) all at once.  This is a big risk since AITC dropped 64 sitting MLAs and another 50+ candidates that ran in 2016.  This gives time for the dropped MLAs in the later stages to join BJP and run on the BJP ticket.  AITC seems to have done this to project confidence in victory and thus ensure that the anti-BJP tactical vote goes their way.  Also it seems as a whole the BJP is not taking the bait.  A bunch of AITC MLAs already have defected to BJP but very few of them have been nominated by the BJP.  I guess the BJP figured that the AITC dropped them for a reason (local anti-incumbency) so it was careful before nominating them despite the BJP weakness of quality local candidates

One exception of course is the current Nandigram MLA Suvendu Adhikari which was a close aide to AITC CM Mamata Banerjee but have since defected to BJP.  Mamata Banerjee has decided to contest in Nandigram to take on the local Nandigram kingpin Suvendu Adhikari given that it was the Nandigram protests of 2007 that kicked off the rise of AITC.   Also to show confidence  Mamata Banerjee has decided to only contest in Nandigram and nowhere else.

[jaichind]

With DMK and INC working out a deal in TN for INC to get 25 seats the only alliances not worked out yet are NDA in TN and both alliances in Puducherry.

For NDA in TN, AIADMK already worked out with PMK to get 23 seats and BJP to get 20 seats.  What is left unresolved are AIADMK talks with DMDK and BJP pressure for AIADMK to somehow accommodate AMMK.  DMDK is not what it used to be at its heyday in 2009-2011.  2016 TN assembly elections had show up DMDK core vote share to be in the mid single digits.  AIADMK already promised PMK that the PMK will be the most senior AIADMK partner so AIADMK could not give DMDK more than 23 seats.  But DMDK is asking for at least 25 so talks will go on for a while.  As for AMMK it is clear BJP wants to bring them aboard but even with ex-AIADMK leader Sasikala "retiring" from active politics TTV Dhinakaran show no signs of wanting to join up with AIADMK.  The AIADMK duo EPS-OPS  also is not keep on taking on AMMK even as an ally.  As far as EPS-OPS is concerned Sasikala  and TTV Dhinakaran are just biding their time to come take over AIADMK in case AIADMK is defeated in the assembly elections.

In Puducherry INC-DMK talks are on again after they worked things out in TN.  The DMK claim that they will join up with AINRC seems to be a ploy to get INC to play ball in TN.  AINRC-BJP talks have broken down since both parties are claiming the CM seat and the role of senior partner.  Both AINRC and BJP are keen on getting AIADMK to be their ally but not each other.  So it seems in Puducherry, in a inverse of TN, INC AINRC and BJP all want to be the senior partner and both DMK and AIADMK are fine with being the junior partner at the right price.  BJP has no base in Puducherry but its ranks have been infused by INC defectors many which have been promised key roles in government once BJP wins the assembly elections.  So the BJP could not afford to back down in their talks with AINRC lest their latest INC defector members defect somewhere else.

That the BJP is really made up of INC defectors has plenty of precedence.  In 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections the BJP list of candidates had so many INC defectors that the Uttarakhand BJP was called "Modi's Congress."  AINRC itself is an INC splinter.  AINRC leader N Rangaswamy was the INC CM in 2001-2008 until INC high command removed him from the CM role.  In 2011 he defected from INC and formed AINRC and in alliance with AIADMK defeated INC-DMK in 2011 assembly elections becoming CM again until he was defeated in 2016 assembly elections by INC-DMK after falling out with AIADMK.


In Puducherry there is a long tradition of INC splits and defections.  Puducherry is really 4 separate enclaves with 2 aligned with TN (Tamil speaking), 1 aligned with Kerala (Malayalam speaking) and 1 aligned with AP (Telegu speaking).  This means it is easy for factions to develop since there are 4 distinct and separate regions.


It seems everyone is waiting on INC-DMK talks.  If that alliance falls apart then AINRC will have a free hand to take on DMK as an ally and dump BJP and AIADMK.  If INC-DMK alliance is formed then AINRC will be pressured to get either BJP or AIADMK as an ally remembering that in 2016 it was the AINRC-AIADMK split that led to the INC-DMK victory.

[jaichind]

Times Now C-Voter for Puducherry

           Seats    Vote Share
UPA        12         37.6%
NDA       18         44.5%

 


I assume this poll has UPA as INC-DMK and NDA as AINRC-BJP-AIADMK.  Not clear ANIRC and BJP will actually form an alliance.

If the vote share gap is 7% then I suspect UPA will be in the single digits in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

Times Now C-Voter poll on Assam

             Seats      Vote Share
NDA         67            42.9%
UPA          57            40.7%
Others       2             16.4%




I assume NDA is BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS and UPA is INC-AIUDF-BPF-Left.  Not sure if they take into account a possible AGP(P) join of UPA.  

For NDA to be slightly ahead is a warning signal for BJP.  What should be concerning for NDA is that Others at 2 seats seems to indicate a consolidation of the anti-BJP anti-CAA vote around UPA.  I can see NDA falling short of majority or a  possible UPA majority here now.

Same poll in Jan was NDA 77 UPA 40
                   Feb was NDA 72 UPA 47
                   Now it is NDA 67 UPA 57

The race is getting tighter.  BPF joining UPA was very big since that adds 5 seats at least to the alliance and could be as much as 10 seats.

[jaichind]

Times Now C-Voter poll on Kerala

           Seats       Vote Share
LDF        82            42.9%
UDF        56            36.6%
NDA         1            14.4%
Others      1              5.1%




This poll seems to imply a repeat of 2016.  The reason I am skeptical is that out of all Kerala elections since 1957 when it was formed only once did an election bloc wins 2 elections in a row (1970 and 1977).  Other than that every alliance bloc victory has been followed by a defeat.  It could be the shift of KEC(Mani) from UDF to LDF can be THAT decisive but I still will go with historical trends and give UDF the edge here despite what the polls seems to indicate.

[jaichind]

Times Now C-Voter poll on WB
                                        
                                         Seat        Vote share
AITC+                                 154            42.2%
BJP+                                   104            37.5%
Left Front-INC-ISF                  33            14.8%



While it seems AITC does have the edge there is still a chance of a last minute collapse of Left Front-INC-ISF and then it is anyone's game on how anti-BJP and anti-AITC tactical voting would go. There is also a chance that Left Front-INC-ISF does well enough to deny AITC a majority.

Poll has Muslim vote splitting for AITC(44.3%) over Left Front-INC-ISF (28.1%) with BJP getting 8.1% of the Muslim vote

[jaichind]

Times Now C-Voter poll for TN
   
                              Seats         Vote share
UPA (DMK+)            158                43.2%
NDA (AIADMK+)        65                32.1%
NMN                           5                 7.1%
AMMK                         3                 6.5%
Others                        3                11.1%



Just like its previous poll I am calling out this poll as being to conservative.  TN tends to swing fairly uniformly so an 11% vote share gap between the two leading blocs should be that UPA will be around 190-200 seats and NDA 30-35 seats.  This sort of seat share sort of implies a 5% vote share gap and not an 11% vote share gap.  I tend to believe that the vote share gap could be even greater than 11% and that the NDA will be smashed in a landslide.

What could perhaps mitigate the landslide defeat but not prevent it is if AMMK could be brought into the AIADMK+ bloc which is what the BJP is trying to work for behind the scenes.  But the latest news

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/tamil-nadu/article/asaduddin-owaisis-aimim-seals-poll-deal-with-ttv-dhinakarans-ammk-for-tamil-nadu-polls/729812

"Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM seals poll deal with TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK for Tamil Nadu election"

Seems that AMMK just signed a deal to sign up AIMIM for an alliance.  AMMK does not sound like a party that is looking to join AIADMK+.

[jaichind]

Latest TN UPA seat sharing

DMK        177
INC           25
MDMK         6  (DMK splinter from 1993, will run on DMK symbol)
VCK            6  (Dalit)
CPI             6
CPM            6
IUML           3 (Muslim)
MMK           2  (Muslim)
TVK            1  (PMK splinter, will run on DMK symbol)
ATP             1  (Dalit, will run on DMK symbol)
MVK            1  (will run on DMK symbol)

So DMK symbol will run in 186 seats

[jaichind]

ABP Ananda-CNX poll on WB
    
                                  Seats     Vote Share
AITC                             159           42%
BJP                               107           34%
Left Front-INC-ISF           26            20%
Others                              2

[jaichind]

A 2016 NDTV analysis of Assam gives a sense where each voting bloc were aligned with. Tea Workers are non-Assamese non-Bengali and mostly Hindi speaking Hindus that were the decedents of workers the British brought in to Assam to work the tea farms.



This time INC and AIUDF have joined forces to consolidate the Muslim vote.  BPF and UPPL swapping places most likely shifted the Bodo vote to be more like 50/50 between NDA and UPA.  On the other hand due to CAA the Tea Workers and Bengali Hindus have shifted more toward NDA.  What would be decisive is how the anti-CAA Assamese Hindus (Ahoms) vote.  If they split their vote between INC and AJD-RD then NDA should win easily.  If they consolidate around UPA the the election becomes a tossup with the Bodo vote holding the balance of power.

[jaichind]

In TN minor party news Center-Left NMN led by actor Kamal Haasan also finished up his alliance as well.  It will be

NMN   154 (Secular Center-Left)
AISMK  40 (Left populist)
IJK       40 (anti-corruption) (allied with BJP in 2016, UPA in 2019 and now with NMN in 2021)

[jaichind]

People Pulse report has BJP with a landslide victory in WB

http://peoplespulse.in/pdf/reports/Mood%20For%20Poriborton%20West%20Bengal%202021.pdf

The have

BJP ahead in 160 seats
AITC ahead in 70 seats
Left Front-INC ahead in 12 seats

AITC.BJP tossup in 39 seats
AITC/Left Front-INC tossup in 5 seats
AITC/Left Front-INC/BJP tossup 7
BJP/Left Front-INC tossup 1

If you allocate seats for 50/50 for seats that are tossups this report projects BJP to win a massive 180 seats.


The People's Pulse was not too far off in their final project for 2020 Bihar assembly election
http://peoplespulse.in/pdf/reports/Bihar%20Exit%20Poll%20-%202020.pdf

The had
 
           Predicted       Result
RJD           90             75
BJP            70             74
JD(U)         30             43
INC           17             19
Left            4              16
LJP             4               1


They also correctly called the 2018 MP assembly election
http://peoplespulse.in/pdf/reports/MADHYA%20PRADESH%20ELECTION%20REPORT%20-%202018.pdf#new_tab

           Predicted       Result
INC         118            114
BJP         100             109
BSP            1                2

If anything the People's Pulse seems to have a slight anti-BJP bias.  For them to predict a BJP landslide in WB is not good news for AITC.

[jaichind]

What would happen if neither UPA and LDP have majority and BJP has balance of power in Kerala?

The assumption would be that the NDA would back UDF over LDF since NDA and UDF have overlapping support among the Nairs and Christians which the BJP has been trying to woo.   It is totally possible that INC would reject that support and try to form a grand alliance with LDF.  If that were the case then various UDF KEC factions might rebel leading to the dissolution of UDF.  In other words if this were to take place it would fit the wildest dreams of BJP.  The INC would prefer that LDF win a majority than BJP holding the balance of power.

[jaichind]

One thing that is interesting about the election in Assam is that neither NDA nor UPA is projecting a CM candidate.

For NDA the problem is that if they project current BJP CM Sarbananda Sonowal


as the NDA CM candidate that could provoke a rebellion from Himanta Biswa Sarma.


Himanta Biswa Sarma has a AGP background but became a top INC leader before defecting to BJP in 2015 hoping to become the BJP CM after the expected BJP victory in the 2016 Assam elections.  But in the end the BJP went with Sarbananda Sonowal.  This time around if either is projected as the BJP CM candidate the other might rebel or at least not work actively for BJP victory on the ground.  But if NDA does win the rivalry between  Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma might turn into a bomb waiting to go off.

For UPA the issue is long time INC CM of 2001-2016 Tarun Gogoi passed away in late 2020 due to COVID-19 so INC had no one obvious face for CM so INC choose not to pre-create a blowup between the various Assam INC factions.

[jaichind]

Alliance news.  In TN in a blow to AIADMK it seems DMDK have dropped out of the AIADMK alliance.  This will only add to the defeat of the AIADMK bloc with no signs that AMMK will come aboard.  It seems everyone have accepted that AIADMK will be smashed and are working to capture the maximum leverage after the elections.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/actor-vijayakanths-dmdk-quits-aiadmk-bjp-alliance-ahead-of-tamil-nadu-polls-next-month-2386823

"Upset Over Seats, Actor Vijayakanth's DMDK Quits AIADMK-BJP Alliance"



In Puducherry AINRC-BJP-AIADMK-PMK alliance formed.  In the end BJP backed down and accepted AINRC leader and former CM  Rangasamy to be the NDA CM candidate.  The seat allocation is AINRC 16 seats with BJP AIADMK and PMK sharing the remaining 14.

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/shriram-automall-india-launches-digital-platform-thepricex/2043492?scroll

"AINRC seals alliance with BJP and AIADMK in Puducherry; to contest 16 seats"


This almost certainly means that INC-DMK will have to form an alliance where discussions are still ongoing

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2021/mar/08/seat-sharing-talks-between-congress-and-dmk-in-puducherry-inconclusive-final-decision-in-chennai-2273893.html

"Seat-sharing talks between Congress and DMK in Puducherry inconclusive, final decision in Chennai"

At this stage with AINRC and BJP joining hands it is certain that NDA will win and most likely win in a landslide in Puducherry.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/uttarakhand-cm-trivendra-rawat-to-resign-today/articleshow/81408888.cms

"Uttarakhand CM Trivendra Singh Rawat to resign today"

In Uttarakhand BJP CM quits a year ahead of 2022 assembly elections.  Trivendra Singh Rawat has been unpopular with the BJP base as well as the state as a whole for a while now.  It seems BJP is headed toward defeat next year in Uttarakhand assembly elections.  This move most likely will not help but both INC and BJP in Uttarakhand have a tradition of changing CM mid-term to try to boost chances of next assembly elections usually to no avail with gains voted through a new face offset by losses suffered due to partisans aligned with the old CM not working to support the party in the next assembly elections. 

[jaichind]

Latest TN UPA seat sharing

DMK        177
INC           25
MDMK         6  (DMK splinter from 1993, will run on DMK symbol)
VCK            6  (Dalit)
CPI             6
CPM            6
IUML           3 (Muslim)
MMK           2  (Muslim)
TVK            1  (PMK splinter, will run on DMK symbol)
ATP             1  (Dalit, will run on DMK symbol)
MVK            1  (will run on DMK symbol)

So DMK symbol will run in 186 seats

DMK also signs up KMDK for 3 seats which they will run on DMK ticket.  So now UPA seat sharing are

DMK        174
INC           25
MDMK         6  (DMK splinter from 1993, will run on DMK symbol)
VCK            6  (Dalit)
CPI             6
CPM            6
IUML           3 (Muslim)
DMDK          3 (Kongu Nadu regionalism, will run on DMK symbol)
MMK           2  (Muslim)
TVK            1  (PMK splinter, will run on DMK symbol)
ATP             1  (Dalit, will run on DMK symbol)
MVK            1  (will run on DMK symbol)

So DMK symbol will run in 186 seats