India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

In Puducherry it seems BJP relents and backs AIRNC leader N. Rangaswamy become CM.  This will be the 4th time N. Rangaswamy will become CM.  He was INC CM in 2001 and 2006 but was removed by INC high command in 2008.  In 2011 he bolted from INC and formed AIRNC winning the 2011 assembly elections in an AINRC-AIADMK alliance to become CM again.  AIRNC's breakup with AIADMK for 2016 assembly election led to INC-DMK coming to power.  In 2021 he formed an alliance with BJP and AIADMK to win 2021 assembly elections and become CM again.

Note that this AINRC-BJP government is de facto another INC faction government.  BJP did not really exist in Puducherry until recently when its ranks were swelled by INC defectors looking to become CM themselves. So the new AIRNC-BJP government will be run almost all INC defectors as AINRC is an INC splinter and BJP are all recent INC defectors.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/local-factors-determine-electoral-outcomes-in-states/article34475075.ece

"Local factors determine electoral outcomes in States"

More data on CSDS post-election survey.  There is clearly a more pro-incumbent sentiment than in 2016 except for TN

[jaichind]

With leads or winners in all UP Zila Panchyat (3047 out of 3050)

It is neck to neck between BJP and SP.  BSP has recovered in the later rounds.  If various indpendent media sources are to believed OTH has a bunch of RLD (SP ally) and pro-INC independents.

BJP - 768
SP - 759
BSP - 369
INC - 80
OTH - 1071



BTW, the scale of this election and the number of candidate was massive. It seems around a dozen of winners have already passed away from COVID-19.

[jaichind]

time for an AITC member to resign to let Mamata to run in a by-election?

Mamata Banerjee will be sworn in Wed in her 3rd term as CM.  I checked, WB does not have a Legislative Council which means the only route is for an AITC MLA to resign and for Mamata Banerjee to re-enter via by-election.  This has to take place within 6 months of her being sworn in. 

Shibu Soren, who is the father of current Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren became CM twice, in 2008 and 2010, but had to resign both times after 6 months after he lost a by-election in both cases.  In Mamata Banerjee's case I am sure this would not be a problem.

[jaichind]

https://www.india.com/viral/up-panchayat-election-2021-result-bride-leaves-wedding-varmala-collect-victory-certificate-winning-bdc-seat-takes-saat-pheras-on-returning-viral-photos-4638235/?fbclid=IwAR3n-NhS3vOvBpoAD-W3WibRy9Vi6Up9XCWB87z4uGoJ3D8ZP5EgZTpKS3Y

"UP Bride Leaves Wedding Ceremony Midway to Get Her Victory Certificate After Winning BDC Seat | See Pics"

Funny UP Panchyat  election story where a bride winner was so excited at winning that she left her wedding to pick up her victory certificate.

[jaichind]

so these people are "fair-weather" BJPers who can't really be counted on to have undying loyalty to the party?

No, I don't think this type of leader is beholden to the BJP brand or ideological platform. They will go along as long as they think the BJP is their vehicle to gain public office. The situation is a bit similar to Assam, where long-time BJP/RSS cadres have been dwarfed by INC defectors. There are some jokes about the Assam BJP being "Modi's Congress".

The joke about "Modi's Congress" also extends to Uttarakhand.  When the BJP swept back into power in the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections, the number of INC rebels that found themselves as BJP candidates were so large that the Uttarakhand BJP was also called "Modi's Congress."

[jaichind]

In Assam the results went mostly as expected with NDA outperforming in marginal seat due to Hindi consolidation.  The big miss from my point of view was in Bodoland where I expected BPF to sweep and instead UPPL-BJP holding the upper hand.

Before the election in Assam I expected NDA to win for sure at least 51 seats (BJP 44 AGP 7) while I expected UPA to win at least 46 seats (INC 25 AIUDF 14 BPF 7).   I had 29 seats where I can see them going either way but I expected UPA to win more of them due to anti-incumbency giving UPA a narrow win.

The result of my project were:

BJP 44 -> BJP won all 44
AGP 7 -> AGP won all 7
INC 25 -> INC won 22 AIUDF won 2 BJP won 1 -> I got two heavy Muslim INC vs AIUDF seats wrong but from an UPA point of view it did not matter, I missed 1 INC seat due to it seems, an unusually weak INC candidate
AIUDF 14 -> AIUDF won all 14
BPF 7 -> BPF won 4 and UPPL won 3 -> I got Bodoland wrong

Tossup 29 -> BJP won 15, AGP won 2, UPPL won 3, INC won 7, CPM 1, RD 1 -> NDA won most of the Tossups due to Hindu consolidation

But the big miss for me was messing up Bodoland.  It seems that a good part of the Bodo vote along with non-Bodo Hindu's consolidated around NDA in reaction to BPF-AIUDF alliance.

2016 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BPF              12         12         40.36%  (backed by BJP and tactically AGP)

AGP               1           0          1.60%

AGP rebel      1            0          2.34%

BPF rebel       2            0          2.21%

INC               8            0        10.53% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL           11            0        17.24%

AIUDF           7            0        11.67%
 
PCDR            2            0          2.80% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)

SJAM            2            0          2.75% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)


2021 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BJP               4           2        12.37% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL            11          6       38.32% (tactical alliance with BJP)

SGS               1          0         1.52% (backed NDA in other seats)

BPF             12          4        38.28%  (backed by INC and AIUDF)

AIUDF rebel   1          0          0.54%

AJP               2          0          0.76% (tactical alliance with RD)

RD                2          0         1.38% (tactical alliance with AJP)

Going seat by seats it seems clear that the AIUDF and INC successfully shifted most of their Muslim base to BPF but in reaction part of the BPF Bodo base shifted to UPPL-BJP and the non-Bodo Hindu vote consolidated around UPPL-BJP.  The scale of the UPPL-BJP victory could have  been even greater had the UPPl-BJP alliance was an complete one versus a tactical one.

[jaichind]

UP Zila Panchyat counting continues.  Now there are trends from all seats.  SP overtakes BJP by a good margin.  It is claimed at a bunch of the Others are pro-INC independents (on the order of ~100).  If so SP and INC outperformed while BJP and BSP underperformed.  

[jaichind]

There are now reports of a conflict in the Assam BJP over the CM Post. Both Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma held separate meetings with their supporters. Some of the more fanciful reports say HBS and 30-40 MLA's threatened to quit the party if he does not get CM post. Seems quite unlikely at this stage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this is a genuine negotiating tactic. HBS and many of his proteges, especially former INC defectors, have no loyalty to BJP, Modi, or Hindutva.

There are sources that since the election Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma have not spoken to each other which means a power struggle is clearly going on.  Still with Modi as the main vote getter for BJP in the end they will have to abide by what Modi decides.  In the meantime I am sure both sides will be up to all sorts stuff to undermine each other.

[jaichind]

Which one seat you had INC winning that BJP ended up winning?

I think INC should have also won the following seats:

Upper/North Assam: Lakhimpur, Teok, Amguri
Central Assam: Barhampur
Barak Valley: Patharkandi

The seat I thought the INC was going to win for sure but the BJP won instead was Patharkandi.

I can see why you thought INC was going to win Lakhimpur given the AGP incumbent and the BJP was in a friendly fight but I had it as a tossup since it was not clear how much BJP-AGP tactical voting will take place. 

As for Teok and Amguri I assumed you thought AGP will underperform.  I was not as such are about how big that would be ergo I had them as tossups.  Barhampur I assume it was about the Prafulla Mahanta factor.  But with Prafulla Mahanta not actively helping INC I was not sure that the INC would win.

[jaichind]

UP Zila Panchyat counting continues.  Now there are trends from all seats.  SP overtakes BJP by a good margin.  It is claimed at a bunch of the Others are pro-INC independents (on the order of ~100).  If so SP and INC outperformed while BJP and BSP underperformed.  

Quite surprised with this result. Do you think the pandemic played a role?

The voting took place before the COVID-19 surge so I do not think it place that much of a role. SP actually won Hindu holy sites and BJP strongholds Ayodhya, Varanasi & Mathura.  Varanasi  is Modi's seat.  What took place is anti-incumbency against the BJP is finally catching up also local "out groups" are venting their anger.   In 2022 Yogi Adityanath will have to nationalize the race like BJP in Assam to win as these results show if the election were fought as a pure confederation of local issues and races the BJP will be in trouble.  Most likely Yogi Adityanath will find a way to pull it off.

[jaichind]

In Assam, INC state president and RS MP Ripun Bora ended up losing by 29000 votes in Gohpur, in central Assam. He claimed responsibility for the UPA's defeat and tendered his resignation to Sonia Gandhi. Bora played a major role in organising the alliance with the AIUDF despite misgivings of some other top INC leaders.

INC's leader in the Assam assembly, Debabrata Saikia, narrowly retained his family bastion of Nazira in Upper Assam by less than 1000 votes. The seat has been held almost continuously by the Saikia family since 1967, with Debrabrata Saikia's father, Hiteshwar Saikia, twice serving as CM of Assam. Debabrata Saikia's position as leader of the opposition is under threat.

The leading contenders for new Assam president seem to be LS MP's Gaurav Gogoi, and Pradyut Bordoloi. The leader of the opposition has to be from the assembly though. Gogoi is in pole position. Despite the pro-BJP trend in Upper Assam, the INC registered its strongest regional performance in Titabor, represented by his late father and former CM Tarun Gogoi. The INC candidate was a non-entity, but the party held on to its support from 2016. Some people say INC would have done much better in Upper Assam if Gogoi had been projected as UPA's CM candidate.

I think looking at what took place in WB and Assam in retrospect the INC should have tried to put up a CM candidate even though it went against INC conventions.  In WB with AITC aggressively pushing AITC CM Mamata Banerjee as the face of AITC and trying to fight an election as is Mamata Banerjee is the AITC candidate in every district the BJP was forced to run a campaign against Mamata Banerjee and was less able to push a narrative that AITC was being propped up by the Muslim vote.

In Assam without a INC CM face the BJP was able to effectively push INC = AIUDF = Bengali Muslims = Bangladesh = ISIS versus forcing the BJP to run against the INC CM candidate who clearly will not be Muslim.   Main problem with this strategy though is the way the INC ran the campaign was the only way they could have run it given the factionalized nature of the Assam INC.

[jaichind]

It seems like these are the results of UP Zila Panchyat  elections

SP         747
BJP        666
BSP       322
INC         77
Others 1238

Based on various media reports and various partisan claims it seems under Others are

at least 110 pro-INC independents
RLS around 80
AAP around 80
AIMIM 23

[jaichind]

I constructed TN results chart.  I broke out parties that ran on AIADMK and DMK symbols but are in reality independent parties.

AMMK+ totally underperformed.  AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran lost the seat he was contesting.
 DMDK at 1.70% of the vote in seats contested is a shockingly low number given where it was in 2009-2011 when it was able to command around 10% of the TN vote.  MNM also underperformed.  On the other hand Tamil nationalist NTK at 6.63% is a total overperformance.    

All this explains why the mega DMK+ landslide did not come.  AMMK+ failed to eat into the AIADMK vote while NTK clearly ate into the anti-BJP vote hurting DMK+.  The result was a solid DMK+ victory but not a massive victory.  The turning point of the election based on these results was former AIADMK leader and now de facto AMMK leader Sasikala retiring from politics and de facto endorsing AIADMK to stop DMK.  That consolidate the AMMK splinter vote back toward the AIADMK and saved the AIADMK from a landslide defeat.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
DMK+                      234            159           45.72%
DMK                        173            125           35.37%          47.41%
INC                           25              18             4.31%          41.63%
CPI                             6               2              1.10%          43.66%
MDMK                         6               4              1.06%          41.32%  (DMK splinter)
VCK                            6               4              1.00%          42.75%  (Dalit)
CPM                            6               2              0.85%         35.48%
KMDK                         3               1              0.52%          39.18% (Kongu Nadu regionalist)
IUML                          3               0               0.48%         38.66% (Muslim)
MMK                           2              2               0.40%          44.33% (Thevar caste)
TVK                            1               1              0.20%          47.92% (PMK splinter, Vanniyars caste)
ATP                            1               0               0.14%         31.57% (Dalit)
MVK                           1               0               0.14%         34.78% (Dalit)
AIFB                           1              0               0.14%         30.16%


AIADMK+               234              75             40.01%
AIADMK                 179              65             32.20%         41.34%
PMK                        23                5               3.83%         37.92% (Vanniyars caste)
BJP                         20                4               2.64%         34.53%
TMC(M)                    6                 0               0.64%         29.83% (INC splinter)
PBK                         1                 1               0.18%         49.08% (Dalit)
MMK                        1                 0               0.16%        38.12% (Thevar caste)
PTMK                       1                 0               0.11%        25.29% (Nadar caste)
AIMMK                     1                 0               0.09%         23.96% (Thevar caste)
PDK                         1                 0               0.09%         26.37% (Thevar caste)
TMMK                       1                0               0.07%         25.46% (Devendrakula caste)
 
AMMK+                228                 0               2.81%
AMMK                  161                 0               2.32%           3.38% (AIADMK splinter)
DMDK                   60                  0               0.44%           1.70%
Minor allies             7                   0               0.05%

MNM+                 225                  0               2.75%
MNM                   143                  0               2.39%           3.88%
IJK                       38                  0               0.09%            0.51%
AISMK                  32                  0               0.19%           1.56% (AIADMK splinter)
TMJK                      9                  0               0.07%           2.08% (Muslim)
JD(S)                     3                  0               0.01%           0.87%

NTK                   234                  0               6.63%                      (Tamil nationalist)

2021 TN elections ended up being a clone of 2006 TN assembly elections.  

2006 TN assembly elections

                     Contest           Seats         Vote share    
DMK+              234                163            44.75% (included INC PMK CPM CPI)

AIADMK+         234                 69            40.06% (included MDMK VCK JD(S))

DMDK              232                  1               8.38%

BJP                  225                 0                2.02%

where NTK is the new DMDK

2004 LS saw DMK+ win a massive landslide and everyone expected 2006 to be a massive DMK+ landslide.   In the end it was a significant DMK+ victory but not a landside.    We seems to be seeing the same patter with 2019 LS elections and 2021 assembly elections.

[jaichind]

More CSDS TN post-election survey

BJP was for sure a drag on AIADMK with even AIADMK+ voters was more negative on BJP than positive.  NTK massive anti-BJP tilt adds to my view that NTK outperformance ate into the DMK+ vote.  Also unlike Northern India Dalits in TN are very negative on BJP



With Jayalalitha gone the DMK+ closed the gender gap and avoided the outsized women vote for AIADMK.


DMK+ outperformed relative to 2016 with swing voters

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mamata-banerjee-is-leader-of-our-country-today-congresss-kamal-nath-2430148

""Mamata Banerjee Is Leader Of Our Country Today": Congress's Kamal Nath"

Former INC CM of MP  Kamal Nath called AITC WB CM Mamata Banerjee  "Leader of Our Country Today" and seems to be open to Mamata Banerjee being the UPA PM candidate in 2024.   Kamal Nath has long links to the Gandhi family so a statement like this must at least have some tacit approval from the Gandhi clan.

[jaichind]

Final UP Zila Panchyat  elections results

There are claims that at least 100 out of the Others/Independents are pro-INC although it seems clear that a larger number of them are pro-BJP or pro-SP.  Overall a poor showing for BJP and strong showing for SP.


What would be concerning for BJP CM Yogi Adityanath is that a lot of the BJP loses are in Eastern UP which is his bastion.  Western UP, it seems, is likely to swing away from BJP in 2022 assembly elections due to a revived RLD and the rise of the farmers movements but Eastern UP was expected to swing toward BJP due to the Yogi Adityanath faction.  These results indicates that Eastern UP might not be safe for BJP next year.

[jaichind]

WB results chart.  Note elections were held in 292 out of 294 seats due to COVID-19 death of candidates in two seats.  AITC is expected in both when the elections are held.

AITC overperformed by clawing back some Hindu votes that voted BJP due to Modi in 2019 and pulling in pro-INC and what remains of the pro-Left Front Muslim vote.  BJP failed to get that much anti-AITC tactical voting from Left Front and INC voters.  The BJP were lucky.  Most of the very close seats broke for BJP.  Had the close seats been more evenly divided the BJP would have be in the high 50s or low 60s in terms of seats.

Left Front, INC and ISF had a tactical alliance but it held up in most seats and was more complete than the looser Left Front INC alliance of 2016.

The fates of CPM INC and BJP are exactly reversed of 2016.  In 2016 CPM won 39.07% in seats it contested and INC won 40.79% in seats contested while the BJP won 10.40% in seats contested.  This time around CPM won 9.98% in seats contested and INC won 9.83% in seats contested while the BJP won 38.67% in seats contested.  An exact mirror image shift.  AITC went from 45.72% in seats contested in 2016 to 49.04% in seats contested in 2021.

Former pro-AITC Muslim ISF seems to have overperformed and was able to retain some Muslim votes that shifted in greater numbers to AITC in seats contested by Left Front and INC.

AITC not getting the two GJM factions (GJM (Gurung)  GJM (Tamang)) together or just making a call which one they backed cost them a couple of seats to BJP in Gorkhaland.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
AITC+                     289            213            48.53%
AITC                       288            213            48.47%          49.04%
Ind.                           1                0              0.06%          17.73%

GJM (Tamang)            3                1              0.28%          33.30% (backed by part of AITC)
GJM (Gurung)             3                0             0.17%           20.98% (backed by part of AITC)

NDA                       292              77            38.65%
BJP                        291              77            38.54%           38.67%
AJSU                         1                0              0.10%           30.37%

Left Front               179                0              5.74%                       (tactical alliance with INC ISF)
CPM                       137               0               4.75%            9.98%
AIFB                        21               0               0.54%            7.46%
CPI                          10               0               0.20%            5.57%
RSP                         10               0               0.21%            6.40%
MFB                          1                0              0.04%           11.43%

INC                        91                 0              2.96%             9.83% (tactical alliance with Left Front ISF)

ISF                       32                  1               1.37%          12.20% (tactical alliance with INC Left Front)

[jaichind]

CSDS post election survey on WB

Big gender gap advantage with women for AITC although the advantage differs with different communities and income.  AITC if anything made more gains with men relative to 2019




BJP's plan of gaining votes by deploying Modi over many phases did not work as late deciders broke for AITC across the board




BJP which had a surge in 2019 with OBC and Dalits (including Rajbanshis and Namasudra) saw some of their 2019 gains dissipate


A bunch of Left Front voters that voted in 2019 did not seem to have voted BJP this time although the BJP still retained a significant (33% in 2021 vs 39% in 2019) part of the old Left Front vote

[jaichind]

This Friday MK Stalin, age 68, will finally become CM of TN.  The anticipated coronation of MK Stalin as CM of TN has taken 49 years to reach. 

MK Stalin is the son of former DMK leader and CM of TN on many occasions Karunanidhi.  Karunanidhi took over as CM of TN in 1969 after DMK founder and CM Annadurai passed away.  Annadurai founded and led DMK to victory in 1967 over INC.  After Karunanidhi led DMK to victory in 1971 with the help of Indira Gandhi's INC over INC(O) he began to think in terms of installing his son MK Stalin as his successor.   This put him into conflict the other DMK leader MGR who left DMK in 1972 to form AIADMK which went on to the the main rival to DMK as both INC and INC(O) which later became JNP declined in stature in TN.  When MGR left everyone accepted that MK Stalin is the successor to  Karunanidhi.  This was challenged once by key Karunanidhi protégé Vaiko who had leadership aspirations which came to a head in 1993 when Vaiko bolted from DMK to form MDMK.

But  Karunanidhi lived for so long that even in 2016 assembly at age 92 it was him that was leading DMK into battle and only really handed power to his son MK Stalin after the 2016 assembly was lost.   Karunanidhi died in 2018 at age 94.  So 2021 was the first TN assembly election that MK Stalin was able to rally lead DMK into battle in.  Problem for MK Stalin is that now that he is finally CM he is already 68 and in the likely event he loses the 2026 assembly elections to AIADMK he might end up being CM for only 5 years before he will have to start thinking about retirement.

MK Stalin's tenure in the role of imperial successor for 46 years (1972-2018) must be pretty close to a world record.

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/west-bengal-polls-once-domestic-help-kalita-majhi-gets-bjp-ticket-ausgram-sc-seat-1449252

"Meet Kalita Majhi, Domestic Help Turned BJP Candidate For West Bengal Assembly Polls"

In Ausgram where the BJP got 7.6% in 2016 the BJP decided to go for a long shot non-politicans candidate nominating a domestic servant who is married to a plumber.  By nominating someone from such a humble background does project BJP as a pro-poor party.



Unfortunately for the BJP this move blew up in its face when Kalita Majhi was interviewed by the media and was asked which party she is running for she said "AITC".   I guess she does not know much about politics and just stated the party she heard of the most, which would be the ruling AITC.

She actually did not do too badly even though she, as the BJP candidate lost.  In Ausgram it was

AITC    47.12% (incumbant)
BJP      41.58% (political novice Kalita Majhi)
CPM      9.58%

[jaichind]

In the international media the narrative seems to be: "BJP doing badly in WB shows that Modi is doing a bad job on COVID-19 is having an effect"

I totally disagree with this take.  Most of the voting in the assembly elections took place BEFORE the COVID-19 surge.  True, in the later stages of WB that voted after the COVID-19 surge became real the BJP underperformed.  But that has to do with the fact that these same later stages are Muslim heavy districts that had an anti-BJP consolidation behind the AITC. We know this had nothing to do with COVID-19 because in heavy Muslim districts that voted in the earlier stages saw the same Muslim consolidation.

Also if I were the BJP I would be much more worried about the  UP Zila Panchyat  elections which had zero international coverage.  Sure the BJP lost WB but they are on a clear upward trend and they are now solidly the alternative to AITC and are now most likely the frontrunner for the 2026 WB assembly elections.  The UP Zila Panchyat  elections shows that there are anger on the ground in the IP against the BJP and that they could be in a trouble in the 2022 UP assembly elections.  Note the voting in UP took place BEFORE the COVID-19 surge in UP.  And in UP with the BJP being the incumbent government there is nowhere for the BJP to run even if they successfully deflect blame from Modi.   I would be very worried about UP next year if I were the BJP and would not be that worried at all about the WB results.

[jaichind]

Puducherry results chart.

The BJP contested 9 seat and won 6.  But just to show the Modi's INC effect (INC defectors running as BJP candidates) I will break out BJP results by Modi's INC (BJP candidates that are INC defectors with some of them defecting via AINRC where the candidate had an INC background and defected to AINRC before defecting to BJP) and core BJP.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
NDA                         30             16            44.22%
AINRC                      16             10            26.19%        47.50%
Modi's INC                  5              5               8.95%       51.45%
BJP                            4              1               4.89%       37.81%
AIADMK                     5               0              4.19%        28.84%

AINRC rebel               4               3              4.59%        38.22%
AIADMK rebel             1               1             1.45%         37.00%

UPA                         30               9             38.33%
INC                         14               2             15.91%        34.02%
DMK                        13               6             18.75%        44.33%
CPI                           1                0               0.91%       32.50%
VCK                          1                0               0.68%       17.46%
Ind.                          1                1               2.07%       49.24%

INC rebel                  1                1               1.28%       37.15%
DMK rebel                 2                0               0.86%       13.56%

pro-CPM Ind.             1               0               1.14%        40.73%

MNM                       22               0               1.92%          2.60%

NTK                        28               0               3.41%          3.67%

Some takeaways

1) The 4 AINRC rebels are very "fishy" in the sense that they really looked lik AINRC trying to run more candidates they were allocated.  All the rebels were "expelled" from AINRC but it seem it was more like a "wink wink" "expelled" and most of AINRC rebels that won will find their way back to AINRC or perhaps be bought out by BJP for a boatload of $$$.

2) The Modi's INC impact can be seen now we broke them out.  Modi's INC won 51.45% in seats contested which showed the size of their personal vote PLUS AINRC and AIADMK vote bloc support.  Also 5 out of 6 BJP MLAs are really just Modi's INC.

3) AIADMK totally underperformed which is the mirror image of DMK relative overperformance vis-a-vis INC.  AIADMK mostly took on DMK which DMK got a bunch of seats from a weak AIADMK.

4) UPA vote share of 38.33% is not that bad and is really only slightly below its 2016 performance of 40.11% where INC-DMK won 17 out of 30 seats.  This time around the AINRC and AIADMK were able to fuse their vote behind NDA plus the personal vote of Modi's INC was able to power the NDA to victory despite UPA vote share mostly holding up.

5) NTK, just like TN, seems to have overperformed at 3.41% of the vote and had a big jump from 0.49% in 2016.  NTK is a rising force in TN-Puducherry.

[jaichind]

UP Zila Panchyat  elections results (BJP vs SP vs BSP) by region.

What has to worry UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath is BJP underperformance in Eastern UP like Awadh and Poorvanchal.  Before 2019 LS elections there were signs of similar anger in Eastern UP against BJP but the Modi wave was able to wash over those frustrations.  This time around the frustration are greater and growing and 2022 will not have Modi at the top of the BJP ticket.  It is very possible Yogi Adityanath's brand can overcome local frustration against the BJP.

[jaichind]

CSDS post election poll for Kerala

Net net, NDA lost a bit of ground to both LDF and UDF.  It was enough for BJP to lose their only seat and LDF main a greater net gain from NDA relative to UDF which meant the LDF gain a few seats relative to 2016.

UDF recaptured lost ground from LDF and NDA with Nairs (which is a traditionally pro-UDF community) but lost ground with Ezhavas (which is a traditionally a pro-LDF community) to both LDF and NDA.  NDA gained ground with Upper Caste voters.  The LDF surge was based on making big gains with OBC and Dalits.  It seems NDA lost ground with Christians losing them to both UDF and LDF.   This does show that KEC(M) going over to LDF did not really lead to a fundamental shift of the Christian vote from UDF to LDF.  What killed UDF is their inavlity to gain ground with Hindus vis-a-vis LDF.