India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/cong-denounces-attack-on-cm-distances-itself-from-adhir-remark-7224632/

"Congress denounces ‘attack’ on Mamata, distances itself from Adhir remark"

Once again there is a divergence between national INC and WB INC. The national INC views AITC as a tactical ally against BJP while the WB INC views AITC as its enemy.  So after the local WB INC mocked the alleged attack on AITC CM Mamata Banerjee  the national INC came in to tacitly back her.

It is this sort of divergence that led to the creation of AITC in the first place in 1998.  In the mid 1990s the INC viewed WB Left Front as a tacit ally against BJP while the Mamata Banerjee  faction of the WB INC saw Left Front as the main enemy and saw BJP as its tacit ally against Left Front.  When these two positions could not be reconciled Mamata Banerjee left INC and formed AITC taking most of the WB INC with her.

Funny now how it is AITC is the main enemy of BJP and some factions of the WB INC most likely view BJP as its tacit ally against AITC.

[jaichind]

Kerala NDA seat distribution


BJP                 107
BDJS                25  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     2
KKC                   2 (Nadar caste based which are historically pro-INC)
JRS                    1 (Dalit-Tribal)
AIADMK             1
SJD                   1  (JD(U) splinter)
LJP                    1

There are parts of Kerala which are Tamil speaking so AIADMK got a seat.

It seems in the end KJ(S) led by PC George which is a KEC(Mani) splinter was not accepted into NDA and will run independently

It is also interesting that each of the 3 fronts (UDF LDF NDA) have a JD(U) splinter running in the front.   BNJD for UDF, LJD for LDF, and SJD for NDA.  JD(U) which had a surge of support in Kerala after it broke with BJP in 2013 have since declined into nothing when it re-joined BJP in Bihar and what is left splintered out into different parties.


In 2016 it was

BJP                  98
BDJS                36  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     4  (including 1 pro-KEC(Thomas) independent)
JRS                   1   (Dalit-Tribal)
JSS(RB)             1  JSS splinter which itself was a CPM splinter

JSS(RB) have since merged back into JSS after 2016.  JSS in 2016 actually went back to LDF after a time with NDA although they did not get seat allocations in 2016 mor 2021.
It is clear that BJP's footprint is getting bigger in Kerala relative to its allies which is reflected in the seat sharing arrangements.

[jaichind]

https://www.sentinelassam.com/topheadlines/prafulla-kumar-mahanta-not-to-contest-polls-jayashree-goswami-mahanta-527669

"Prafulla Kumar Mahanta not to contest polls: Jayashree Goswami Mahanta"

In Assam it seems AGP founder and ex-AGP CM and now leader of reactivated AGP(P) Prafulla Kumar Mahanta will not run in elections.  This seems to be due to medical issues.  This pretty much means his political career is over and there is zero chance AGP(P) will go anywhere.  

Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was the hero of 1985 with the Assam Accords and twice AGP CM of Assam (1985-1991) and (1996-2001) but the mismanagement of both terms led to a death spiral of AGP that started in the late 1990s which eventually led to BJP taking over its base and now AGP becoming a junior partner of the BJP.  Prafulla Kumar Mahanta has to take most of the blame of what became AGP.

[jaichind]

In TN, DMK releases election manifesto with 500 promises. Some are

1) Free Tablets
2) Financial assistance of Rs 25,000 to 1 lakh (around $400 to $1500) for people going on pilgrimage to Hindu temples
3) Free local public transport for women
4) Reservation of 75% jobs for people of Tamil origin
5) Fuel Price cut

These types of "everything is going to be free !!! free !!! free !!! free !!!" is typical of promises made by TN parties in elections

Number 4 sounds like a copy of a new Haryana law that says all businesses must hire 90% of their staff below a salary cutoff from those who are domiciled in Haryana. This sort of law will be very expensive to enforce but great for fetching  votes.

Number 2 is funny because DMK was founded as an atheist party back in the 1940s.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/yashwant-sinha-trinamool-congress-bengal-elections-7226583/

"Yashwant Sinha joins TMC, says ‘attack’ on Mamata was tipping point"

Former BJP spokesperson and Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha joins AITC.  To be fair he broke with Modi back in 2018 and campaigned against the BJP in the 2019 LS elections already.  The Delhi based media are making a big deal of this because Yashwant Sinha was close to old BJP PM Vajpayee.  Yashwant Sinha actually had a JNP/JD background and only joined the BJP in the early 1990s.

I actually do not thing this will be that impactful.  Yashwant Sinha was always more of a "palace faction" sort of politicians and does not have mass base.  Whatever base he has is more in Jharkhand in his old district of Hazaribagh.  His son Jayant Sinha is still the BJP MP in Hazaribagh.  Despite the media buzz around this I do not thing this will shift one vote in WB.

[jaichind]

Kumudam Reporter Opinion Poll for TN has AIADMK+ with a narrow lead

                    Seats      Vote share
AIADMK+      125            45.2%
DMK+           109            44.1%



Even if true polls at this stage tend to overestimate the ruling party so this type of poll result should imply a narrow DMK+ victory.  In reality I do not see any alternative to a large scale DMK+ victory.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/congress-serving-malampuzha-plate-bjp-cong-workers-protest-palakkad-145174

"‘Congress serving Malampuzha on a plate to BJP’: Cong workers protest in Palakkad"

In Kearla there seems to be rebellion breaking out in Malampuzha where INC have allocated the seat to JD(U) splinter BNJD.  The local INC claims that BNJD has no base here and that this move is giving away the seat to either CPM(M) or BJP.  It is possible INC might have to take back the seat from BNJD.  Looking at 2016 results in Malampuzha in indicate that INC giving the seat to a weak ally BNJD might be a feature and not a bug

2016 Malampuzha
CPM (LDF)   45.9%
BJP(NDA)    28.9%
INC(UDF)    22.1%
AIADMK        2.0%

This time AIADMK will be backing BJP.  Kerala INC high command most likely fear that if there is a swing against CPM then BJP is more likely to gain from that and even win the seat.  INC has more to fear from a rising BJP that could eat into its Nair base.  So allocating the seat to a weak ally might shift anti-BJP tactical vote to CPM and stop the BJP.  It seems the local INC will have none of this and are pushing back.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/congress-serving-malampuzha-plate-bjp-cong-workers-protest-palakkad-145174

"‘Congress serving Malampuzha on a plate to BJP’: Cong workers protest in Palakkad"

In Kearla there seems to be rebellion breaking out in Malampuzha where INC have allocated the seat to JD(U) splinter BNJD.  The local INC claims that BNJD has no base here and that this move is giving away the seat to either CPM(M) or BJP.  It is possible INC might have to take back the seat from BNJD.  Looking at 2016 results in Malampuzha in indicate that INC giving the seat to a weak ally BNJD might be a feature and not a bug

2016 Malampuzha
CPM (LDF)   45.9%
BJP(NDA)    28.9%
INC(UDF)    22.1%
AIADMK        2.0%

This time AIADMK will be backing BJP.  Kerala INC high command most likely fear that if there is a swing against CPM then BJP is more likely to gain from that and even win the seat.  INC has more to fear from a rising BJP that could eat into its Nair base.  So allocating the seat to a weak ally might shift anti-BJP tactical vote to CPM and stop the BJP.  It seems the local INC will have none of this and are pushing back.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2021/mar/14/congress-takes-back-malampuzha-seat-2276345.html

"Congress takes back Malampuzha seat"

In the end after local INC protests and BNJD saying they were not interested in running in Malampuzha, INC took back Malampuzha from BNJD in terms of seat allocation.

As a result the new Kerala UDF seat distribution are

INC                                 92
IMUL                               27  (Muslim) (includes one pro-IMUL independent with INC background)
KEC(Joseph)                    10  (split off from KEC(Mani))
RSP                                  5
NCK                                 2 (NCP splinter)
CMP(J)                             1 (CMP splinter which was itself a CPM splinter)
KEC(Jacob)                      1
AIFB                                1
RMPI                               1 (CPM splinter)

[jaichind]

In WB, it seems the BJP is going all out to win.  Several WB BJP MPs elected in 2019 LS elections are now running for WB assembly elections.  I suspect part of this the fact that in TN the NDA faces a big defeat, in Kerala there will be no BJP breakthrough, and in Assam the BJP might lose the state to INC so for BJP to claim they won this election cycle they HAVE to get above 100 MLAs in WB if not win outright.

[jaichind]

In Kerala another example of candidate flip between the two main fronts: Idukki

In the runup to the 2016 assembly elections JKC split from KEC(Mani) and went over to LDF.  Francis George who was an ex-KEC(Mani) MP was part of the JKC and contested in 2016 on the JKC ticket against KEC(Mani) candidate Roshy Augustine in Idukki. 

The 2016 Idukki result was

Roshy Augustine (KEC(Mani))(UDF)    42.86%
Francis George (JKC)(LDF)                36.26%
BDJS                                               19.40%

After the 2016 assembly elections, KEC(Mani) split with a KEC(Joseph) faction being formed.  KEC(Mani) went over to LDF and KEC(Joseph) faction staying in UDF. Even though most key leaders/MLAs in KEC(Mani) went over to KEC(Joseph) Roshy Augustine went with KEC(Mani) and shifted over to LDF.  Once it is clear that LDP will allocate the Idukki seat to Roshy Augustine of KEC(Mani), Francis George left JKC and joined KEC(Joseph) and was nominated by UDF to run in Idukki .

So 2021 Idukki  will be

Roshy Augustine (KEC(Mani))(LDF)   
Francis George (KEC(Joseph))(UDF)             
BDJS                                               

with the two main candidates the same but which alliance they are running from flipped. 

[jaichind]

WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee back on the campaign trail in a wheelchair.  An ECI report indicate that the incident that led to her injury seems to be an ancient and not an attack.  AITC is spinning it as ECI is under the control of the BJP.

[jaichind]

AP civic elections has YRSCP clean sweep with over 80% of the seats won with the anti-YRSCP split between TDP and JS-BJP.  YRSCP pretty much getting the majority in all cities and corporations. INC is nowhere on the map as YSRCP continues to be "the real Congress" in AP.  Civic elections usually go the way of the ruling party but this type of landslide is quite impressive.

[jaichind]

Updated NDA seat distribution after last minute talks

BJP                  115
BDJS                 19  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)      2
KKC                   2 (Nadar caste based which are historically pro-INC)
JRS                    1 (Dalit-Tribal)
AIADMK             1

Kerala NDA seat distribution


BJP                 107
BDJS                25  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     2
KKC                   2 (Nadar caste based which are historically pro-INC)
JRS                    1 (Dalit-Tribal)
AIADMK             1
SJD                   1  (JD(U) splinter)
LJP                    1

There are parts of Kerala which are Tamil speaking so AIADMK got a seat.

It seems in the end KJ(S) led by PC George which is a KEC(Mani) splinter was not accepted into NDA and will run independently

It is also interesting that each of the 3 fronts (UDF LDF NDA) have a JD(U) splinter running in the front.   BNJD for UDF, LJD for LDF, and SJD for NDA.  JD(U) which had a surge of support in Kerala after it broke with BJP in 2013 have since declined into nothing when it re-joined BJP in Bihar and what is left splintered out into different parties.


In 2016 it was

BJP                  98
BDJS                36  (Ezhava caste based which are historically pro-CPM)
KEC(Thomas)     4  (including 1 pro-KEC(Thomas) independent)
JRS                   1   (Dalit-Tribal)
JSS(RB)             1  JSS splinter which itself was a CPM splinter

JSS(RB) have since merged back into JSS after 2016.  JSS in 2016 actually went back to LDF after a time with NDA although they did not get seat allocations in 2016 mor 2021.
It is clear that BJP's footprint is getting bigger in Kerala relative to its allies which is reflected in the seat sharing arrangements.

[jaichind]

In addition of the irony of AITC leaving INC in 1998 in order to ally with BJP only to view BJP as its main enemy there is the irony of AITC dropping BJP for INC in the run up to the 2011 WB assembly elections for fear that BJP was deadweight and would hold back AITC from beating Left Front.  Now the BJP is on the verge of potentially beating AITC.

Also if BJP had planned for AITC dropping BJP and for INC to defeat Left Front in 2011 is would be a true 3-D chess move.  The Left Front by the early 2000s had actually become a fairly conservative  force versus a radical populist AITC.  As a result the Left Front being in power froze the Upper Caste Hindu vote in place.  The defeat of the Left Front in 2011 and persecution of Left Front cadres by the incoming AITC militants after 2011 actually paved the way of the melting away of the Left Front Hindu vote which then shifted to the BJP over time. So BJP losing AITC as an ally in 2008 and getting crushed in 2009 WB LS and 2011 WB assembly elections was really taking one step back in order to take five steps forward.

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/cong-denounces-attack-on-cm-distances-itself-from-adhir-remark-7224632/

"Congress denounces ‘attack’ on Mamata, distances itself from Adhir remark"

Once again there is a divergence between national INC and WB INC. The national INC views AITC as a tactical ally against BJP while the WB INC views AITC as its enemy.  So after the local WB INC mocked the alleged attack on AITC CM Mamata Banerjee  the national INC came in to tacitly back her.

It is this sort of divergence that led to the creation of AITC in the first place in 1998.  In the mid 1990s the INC viewed WB Left Front as a tacit ally against BJP while the Mamata Banerjee  faction of the WB INC saw Left Front as the main enemy and saw BJP as its tacit ally against Left Front.  When these two positions could not be reconciled Mamata Banerjee left INC and formed AITC taking most of the WB INC with her.

Funny now how it is AITC is the main enemy of BJP and some factions of the WB INC most likely view BJP as its tacit ally against AITC.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/south/tamil-nadu-polls-vijayakant-s-dmdk-allies-with-ammk-to-contest-60-seats-962006.html

"Tamil Nadu polls: Vijayakant’s DMDK allies with AMMK to contest 60 seats"

DMDK joins AMMK front.  For now it seems the AMMK+ front seat distribution will be

AMMK      161
DMDK        60
SDPI           6   (radical Islam)
AIMIM         3   (Muslim)
GMK            1   (Yadav caste)
MSS            1   (Agamudayar caste)
VTPK           1   (Dalit)
MAK            1   (Dalit)


I am pretty sure that AMMK will contest more seats that this since this will leave 100 seats uncontested.    I am surprised that DMDK accepted only 60 seats when its vote base is most likely around half of AMMK vote base.  It sort of shows how desperate DMDK is.   An AMMK-DMDK alliance could fetch around 10% of the vote.  

My gut feeling is that the vote share would be something like

DMK+       45%
AIADMK+  35%
AMMK+     10%
MNM+         5%

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/tamil-nadu-assembly-polls-2021/story/tamil-nadu-polls-free-gas-cylinders-key-promises-aiadmk-manifesto-1779267-2021-03-14

"Tamil Nadu polls: Free gas cylinders, loan waiver among key promises in AIADMK manifesto"

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/tamil-nadu-assembly-polls-2021/story/in-manifesto-aiadmk-promises-to-make-bjp-rethink-caa-ally-says-law-will-not-be-scrapped-1779337-2021-03-15

"In manifesto, AIADMK promises to make Centre rethink CAA, BJP says law will not be scrapped"

AIADMK manifesto has its own list of freebies like free cooking gas cylinders, student loan waivers,  free cable TV (AIADMK channel of course), rise in pensions, expansion of free lunch program for schools etc etc. 

AIADMK also is looking to get Muslim votes by coming out against CAA which clearly have angered AIADMK ally BJP.

[jaichind]

AP Civic election vote share

YSRCP     52.6%
TDP         30.7%
JS-BJP       7.1% (JS 4.7% BJP 2.4%
CPM          0.8%
CPI           0.8%
INC           0.6%



Looks like INC is dead in AP.  Even if YSRCP where to mess up it would be TDP JS or even BJP that will gain from it.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll for WB

                            Seats       Vote share
AITC                      158            43.4%
BJP                        106            38.4%
Left Front-INC-ISF    27            12.7%
Others                      4              5.5%

Pretty much same as same poll in late Feb with some polarization toward AITC and BJP despite Left Front-INC roping in ISF

My main problem here is the seat share gap should be greater with a 5% vote share gap.  I think ABP C-Voter is hedging.




Who Will win Next Assembly Elections?

AITC                     42%
BJP                       39%
Left Front-INC-ISF 12%

Late Feb poll results from same pollster

ABP poll for WB

                          Seats     Vote share
AITC                   156            43%
BJP                     100            38%
INC-Left Front       35            13%




I would say at this stage the poll result should be a floor for the BJP. AITC has to hope that some of the anti-AITC anti-incumbency vote shifts toward INC-Left Front

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/video/india/bsp-to-contest-assembly-polls-in-up-alone-mayawati-2347988.html

"BSP to contest Assembly polls in UP alone: Mayawati"

So in UP next years most likely it will be BJP vs SP-RLD vs BSP vs INC.  It seems very likely now that BJP will return to power which is the first time since 1985 that a ruling party returned to power in UP.  On the other hand most likely the size of BJP's majority will diminish.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll for Assam

              Seats    Vote share
NDA          68         45.0%
UPA           56         42.2%
Others        2          12.8%




Which is a swing toward UPA since the same poll in late Feb which did not have BPF joining up with UPA.

A poll result like this seem to indicate that UPA does have a solid shot at winning.

ABP C-Voter poll for Assam back in late Feb

ABP poll in Assam

              Seats    Vote share
NDA          72         43.8%
UPA           47        41.4%
BPF             4          1.1%
Others         3       13.3%



Of course latest news already make the poll obsolete with BPF and RJD joining INC-AIUDF-Left-AGM alliance.

http://www.millenniumpost.in/nation/cong-led-grand-alliance-expanded-in-assam-with-inclusion-of-bpf-rjd-433003

"Cong-led Grand Alliance expanded in Assam with inclusion of BPF, RJD"

BPF was expected to join AJD-RD alliance but last minute decided to join up with INC-AIUDF front.  The battle in Bodoland of BPF-INC-AIUDF vs UPPL-BJP-GSP will be epic !!!  RJD coming aboard should help INC-AIUDF to pull in Non-Assamese Hindu voters.  All this will only work for INC if they can get past their own factional bickering and ego and allocate the right seats to BPF RJD and other allies to take the most advantage of the local demographic patterns.  

The UPA seat sharing plan has to be, by seat type:

Assamese Hindus and Muslims - INC
Bengali Hindus - INC (although BJP will most likely sweep here)
Non-Assamese Muslims - AIUDF
Tribals - Left
Bodo - BPF
Hindi Hindus - RJD

to have a chance to stop the BJP juggernaut.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll on Kerala

          Seats    Vote share
LDF       81           42.9%
UDF      58            37.9%
NDA       1            14.6%
Ohers     0              4.6%




UDF gained ground from the same poll in late Feb.  The poll also fixed up the "bug" I pointed out from their late Feb poll where Others vote share was too high.

Just like the WB poll, ABP C-Voter is hedging.  A vote share lead of around 5% should see LDF with around 90 seats and not 81.  I still feel that this poll is too positive on LDF chances.  I still see the UDF as a slight favorite to win.

ABP C-Voter poll from late Feb

ABP Kerala poll

          Seats    Vote share
LDF       87            40%
UDF      51            33%
NDA       1            13%
Ohers     1            15%




Again, I am skeptical.  Given the strong 3 way polarization in Kerala there is no way "Others" can win 15% of the vote.  5% tops in my view and more like 3%.  I suspect this poll has a lot of "hidden" UDF voters and that this race is neck-to-neck if not advantage UDF.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll on TN

                        Seat    Vote share
DMK-INC+          165         43.7%
AIADMK-BJP+       57         30.6%
MNM                     4           7.0%
AMMK                   3           6.4%
Others                  5         12.3%




DMK+ gained ground from late Feb in terms of seats.  The poll does not take into account, I suspect, the new AMMK-DMDK alliance.  My comment is the same as last time.  In TN a 13% vote share lead would translate into a seat count of 200 or even more for DMK+ and not 165.  Just like WB and Kerala ABP C-Voter is hedging.

I suspect suspect Others vote share is overestimated.

Late Feb ABP C-Voter poll

ABP poll for TN

                        Seat    Vote share
DMK-INC+          158         41.0%
AIADMK-BJP+       62         28.6%
MNM                     4           8.3%
AMMK                   3           6.9%
Others                  7         14.8%




I am skeptical of this poll.  Most seats in TN tend to swing together so a 12%+ vote share lead by UPA over NDA should produce a seat landslide of massive proportions with UPA getting close to 200 seats.  Also given the polarization between DMK and AIADMK I am not sure who outside of MNM and AMMK can win 7 seats.

[jaichind]

ABP C-voter poll for Puducherry

              
          Seats        Vote share
NDA      18                45.5%
UPA       12                40.7%
Others     0                13.9%

The graphics have typo and UPA should be 10-14 and not 0-14.

It seems UPA vote share have gone up but not seat projection since last poll in late Feb.

I am surprised at this.  I agree that a 5% vote share gap could mean that UPA could cross 10 seats.  I just find it hard to believe.  With BJP taking part of the INC vote base through defections of local INC kingpins PLUS AINRC PLUS AIADMK PLUS anti-incumbency INC-DMK would be lucky to get 5 seats.

ABP C-Voter poll from late Feb.

ABP Puducherry poll has

          Seats        Vote share
NDA      19                46%
UPA       10                33%
Others     1

I am pretty sure if the seat share gap between the two fronts are 13% the NDA will completely sweep the polls with UPA having less than 5 seats.  I suspect that is where we are headed.

[jaichind]

Noida (Western UP, part of Greater Delhi) based Hindi channel have polls that has NDA being beaten in all 5 states.  This channel has a pro-NDA owner but it seems their polls overcompensates for house effect and are mostly too negative on BJP.   In 2019 LS they predicted a defeat for BJP in UP but it turned out to be a BJP landslide.

WB
AITC                      181
BJP                         77
Left Front-INC-ISF    25

Assam
UPA                        68
NDA                       57
Others                     1

TN
UPA                      162
NDA                       63
MNM                        3
Others                     2

Kerala
LDF                        76
UDF                       61
NDA                        3
Others                     0

Puducherry
UPA                       16
NDA                       10
Others                     4

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/west-bengal/west-bengal-polls-bjp-supporters-continue-protests-over-partys-candidate-selection/articleshow/81529174.cms

"West Bengal polls: BJP supporters continue protests over party's candidate selection"

Even though a lot of AITC defectors to BJP did not get nominated to run on BJP ticket, enough of them made it to provoke protests by BJP workers in various districts.  These protests are continuing into a second and third days. 

All in all not sure this is a sign of problems for BJP.  In 2016 Assam when BJP took on AGP as an ally to ensure defeat of INC the local BJP workers also protested in some districts.  Eventually most of them fell back in line and various BJP rebels that ran in protest went nowhere in the election and failed to stop BJP-AGP-BPF from winning.