Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[jaichind]

Standard questions of
a) when do polls close
b) any link to media live streams for exit polls
c) link of results

[jaichind]

So far these results seem pretty close to pre-election polls right?

[jaichind]

Watching news live streams the Kast camp seems a lot more in a celebratory mood than the Boric camp.

[jaichind]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

But could not one argue that a Far-Right candidate will have a lot tougher time to hold on to the Center-Right vote and maybe get some defections from the Left voting bloc?  I guess one could counterargue that Boric is also out of the mainstream and the same logic will apply to his ability to grow his vote as well.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/chile-peso-stocks-jump-as-right-wing-leads-presidential-race

"Chile Peso, Stocks Soar as Election Boosts Resurgent Right Wing"

Stock markets up more than 8%

[jaichind]

Cadem poll has it tied at 39 39 for second round

[jaichind]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chile-celebrity-economist-surprises-with-kingmaker-role/ar-AAQYvsC

"Chile Celebrity Economist Surprises With Kingmaker Role"

Since this came up earlier this article did quote a political analyst on the likely ideology of a Parisi voter

“Parisi’s voter is typically someone with a center-right ideology, that is also disenchanted with the political system,” said Claudio Fuentes, a political analyst and professor at Universidad Diego Portales.

[jaichind]

Reading various investment bank research reports it seems the stock and bond market rallies are less about Kast since he merely performed at pre election polling but more about the Left losing their majority in Congress which means even if Boric wins he will hit a brick wall in trying to push for system change. 

[jaichind]

Why are the polls so off from each other? Even  if there is house effects you would think from a credibility point of view the pollsters would find a way to adjust for it.

[jaichind]

So, in Australia and NZ, Boric 2nd round > Boric + Provoste + MEO + Artés 1st round, and Kast 2 < Kast + Sichel. That's very good news so far. I hope people in Chile are following the same trend

Yeah.  These results are quite depressing.  I am still holding out some hope that Kast can win but it does seem an uphill race.   

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --President Gabriel Boric had approval rating of 27.8% in first half of April, a drop of 6.2 pp compared to the second half of March, according to a survey by Santiago-based pollster Activa published on Sunday.
Disapproval rose 10.5 pp to 56.6%
Regarding the ongoing drafting of Chile’s new constitution, 36.8% of people polled said they would vote to reject it, while 32.2% would vote to approve it and 31% were undecided

[jaichind]

https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-04-26/la-popularidad-de-grabriel-boric-en-chile-cae-del-50-al-36-en-menos-de-dos-meses-de-mandato.html

Cadem poll now has it as 36/53 for approval/disapproval for Boric

[jaichind]

TuInfluyes poll has new constitution accept/reject at 37/46

[jaichind]

Criteria poll has draft constitution approve/reject at 31/48

[jaichind]

Yesterday there were the campaign closures nationwide for both options. In Santiago, Approve did an impressive show of strength with 500.000 people in the capital main avenue.


This was a stark contrast with the Reject act that gathered only a few hundred people.


Now, to be fair. Is very clear that the Reject one wasn't intended to be a massive rally (and their voters aren't very prone to go to rallies to begin with) but it was still terrible optics from them, which led to memes such as these:

If so is it wise for the "Approve" to have such a massive rally since the "Approve" camp should want a lower turnout?

The 1990s-2010s were the heyday of mega political election rallies on ROC.  Most post-election polling and analysis indicated that mega political election rallies only help in multi-cornered races where massive turnout for rallies helps in getting the tactical vote but in bipolar elections, massive rallies merely pushed up turnout for the opposing camp.

[jaichind]

I assume polls close in Chile 5PM EST.  Any link to results ?

[jaichind]

Any results from overseas areas? Australia, New Zealand?

Found them: https://www.meganoticias.cl/nacional/388519-plebiscito-de-salida-2022-resultados-preliminares-en-el-extranjero.html

Australia:

67.2% Approve
32.8% Disapprove

Japan:

67.6% Approve
32.4% Disapprove

South Korea:

63.7% Approve
36.3% Disapprove

New Zealand:

75.8% Approve
24.2% Disapprove

So far, compared with the runoff of the 2021 elections, Approve is down around 8-10% compared with Boric's results in these countries.

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

[jaichind]

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

Looking at the TV coverage, turnout is being massive with the possibility of surpassing the 10 million votes mark for the first time. As Kaoras pointed, turnout is compulsory and if you don't vote, you would have to pay a fine.

I get that but then why would some of the polls separate out all votes and likely voters?  It does seem that there are going to be some that will not vote and risk a fine.  For Approve to pass it seems that number has to be as large as possible.

[jaichind]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

In 2021 it was Boric 3,203 Kast 845.  Either turnout has surged from 2021 or the number of eligible voters has increased in the meantime.

[jaichind]

One pro-Approve way to read the foreign results so far is that non-voters in 2021 are breaking around 50/50 Approve/Disapprove which would be good news for the Approve camp.

[jaichind]

T13 is tracking two counts in Punta Arenas. So far:

84 Reject
71 Approve

127 Reject
111 Approve

These two counts have finished:

55.2% Reject (329)
44.8% Approve (267)

If that is representative of Punta Arenas then it seems Reject has outperformed.

Did T13 pick 2 random precincts or 2 representative precincts?

[jaichind]

This T13 live count would be more fun if they were from bellwether precincts.

[jaichind]

T13 live counting so far:

12,724 Reject (55.9%)
10,043 Approve (44.1%)

But this is just the sum of the precinct results that T13 chooses to have reporters present to film the count right?

[jaichind]

T13 live counting so far:

12,724 Reject (55.9%)
10,043 Approve (44.1%)

But this is just the sum of the precinct results that T13 chooses to have reporters present to film the count right?

Yes, plus precincts where they may have someone telling them the results.

Well, in ROC at least the TV stations do have a live stream of bellwether precincts (good). But they also report fake votes counts which are often their guess what the count is and report them as "real" counts.  These "counts" are often what they figure their viewers want to see.  The goal of those "counts" is to make sure as few people as possible switch channels.  In many cases, these "counts" go over the final results and these "counts" has to go into negative.  If you go back to watch livestreams of ROC counts from various channels you can see this if you are careful.

[jaichind]

Tocopilla has approval/disapproval of  27.3/72.7 !!! Boric was 69.8 here ... what is going on ?