2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

宮城(Miyagi) with 86% of the vote counted it is LDP 48.3 CDP 47.9.  Will come down to the wire as outstanding votes have a slight lean in favor of CDP.

[jaichind]

Miyagi goes CDP.

This night is getting worse and worse for LDP.  With turnout low there was an expectations of a LDP landslide.  It ended up as a win but a fairly minor win.

[jaichind]

Updated tables

District seat only last seat of 東京(Tokyo) which is a battle between JRP and CDP is not called

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   9                   9

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

Asahi site is much faster on the PR count relative to NHK

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/san/kaihyo/C01.html

[jaichind]

With 11.50% of the vote counted PR is
         
          Vote       Seat
LDP   37.71%     21
KP     13.69%      7
JRP     8.14%      4
PNHK  1.61%
HRP    0.33%
DPP    7.43%     4
CDP  16.16%     8
Olive   0.25%
RS      3.37%     1
SDP    2.24%     1
LAB    0.12%
JCP    8.58%      4
EP     0.38% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

LDP and DPP vote count will decrease over time and CDP and JRP increase over time as the urban vote comes in.

[jaichind]

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.

[jaichind]

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.

I was wrong.  NHK called last seat in 東京(Tokyo) for JRP.

[jaichind]

With all district seat called it is

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      5           4       9
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   9                   9

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      5           4       9
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

Reliving the results right now and this says it all:

https://twitter.com/observingjapan/status/1152969676898611201?s=19

With the LDP projecting losing about 9 seats from 2013 right now, the single member districts is the difference. The 10 include all 9 I/Jaichind last mentioned plus Ōita.

I would argue that PNHK cost LDP some of those 1- member seats just like HRP did in 2016.  Still it is up to LDP to get those disgruntled LDP vote and they did not get it done this time just like 2016.

[jaichind]

With 19.61% of the vote counted PR is
         
          Vote       Seat
LDP   36.37%     20
KP     14.12%      7
JRP     8.52%      4
PNHK  1.76%!!!!
HRP    0.33%
DPP    7.01%     3
CDP  16.57%     9
Olive   0.25%
RS      3.50%     1
SDP    2.15%     1
LAB    0.11%
JCP    9.01%      5
EP     0.41% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

LDP and DPP vote count will decrease over time and CDP and JRP increase over time as the urban vote comes in.

[jaichind]

With 26.96% of the vote counted PR is
         
LDP-KP already below majority
PNHK gains a seat with these numbers !!!
RS at 2 seats !!!

          Vote       Seat
LDP   35.94%     19
KP     13.79%      7
JRP     9.18%      5
PNHK  1.80%      1 !!!
HRP    0.35%
DPP    7.16%      3
CDP  16.15%      8
Olive   0.27%
RS      3.72%     2
SDP    2.10%     1
LAB    0.13%
JCP    8.98%      4
EP     0.42% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

[jaichind]

With 30.56% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK still on track to win a seat !!!

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   36.09%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.78%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.04%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.84%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.37%                                0.5%
DPP    7.15%      3                        4.8%
CDP  16.13%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.28%                                0.5%
RS      3.78%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.08%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.14%                                0.2%
JCP    8.89%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.44%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

[jaichind]

Miraisyakai's map of 1- member districts

The one everyone missed, including myself, was 大分(Ōita)

[jaichind]

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.

The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, wasn't it?

2007 for sure was a bad year for LDP

[jaichind]

With 56.15% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK still on track to win a seat !!!
DPP seems to be over-performing and CDP under-performing which is the reverse of 2017 (if we view DPP as the successor or HP)
LDP and DPP are still likely to fall over time.  CDP and JRP likely to rise and perhaps JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   36.13%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.33%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.46%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.87%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.13%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.95%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.31%                                0.5%
RS      4.03%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.04%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.15%                                0.2%
JCP    8.72%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.48%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

[jaichind]

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           0       0
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

With 1 PR seat not allocated.   Asahi  not certain that PNHK will win a PR set.

[jaichind]

With 69.85% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.87%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.25%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.80%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.89%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.14%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.79%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.32%                                0.5%
RS      4.13%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.01%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.15%                                0.2%
JCP    8.74%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.50%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

[jaichind]

福井(Fukui) is the 1- member district where JCP ran as the joint opposition candidate with the JCP label.  One would expect Anti-LDP voters that cannot accept would then most likely vote PNHK.  The result indicates that this is the case

LDP    66.1%
JCP    26.2%
PNHK   7.7%

[jaichind]

Turnout is estimated to be 48.80%.  In 1995 the record low turnout of 44.52% was reached.  Before 2019 the second lowest turnout in Upper House elections was 1992 at 50.72%

[jaichind]

With 77.80% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.62%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.23%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.88%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.93%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.08%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.81%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.25%     2                         2.3%
SDP    1.99%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP    8.84%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.51%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

[jaichind]

With 82.93% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

Does not look like seat count will change from here.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.58%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.20%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.81%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.94%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.04%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.85%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.31%     2                         2.3%
SDP    1.99%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP    8.88%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.52%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

[jaichind]

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens

[jaichind]

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens

Based on this I count a pro/anti-revision balance of 161-84 or 160-85 depending on PNHK's leanings (which I know nothing about)?

These results would produce

LDP+           71
Center Left   35
Third Pole    11 (I count PNHK as Third Pole given its anti-tax leanings)
JCP               7

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          142
Center Left   72
Third Pole     18
JCP              13

Center Left + JCP would be at 85 which is 34.69% of the 245 Upper House which is enough to block Constitutional Revision even if PNHK goes with Abe on Constitutional Revision.  If Abe really wanted Constitutional Revision his way out is to do a deals with KP JRP AND DPP.  DPP might support a watered down Constitutional Revision on SDF.  All this will be very costly politically and frankly not worth doing.

[jaichind]

JRP outperformed across the board. 
They beat out JCP in 茨城(Ibaraki), 神奈川(Kanagawa) and 愛知(Aichi) when CW was that they will fall behind JCP in all three prefectures.  They also outperformed in 大阪(Osaka) 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 東京(Tokyo).  Tactical voting by LDP supporters has a lot to do with it.  In 兵庫(Hyōgo) it seems LDP voters tactically voted in excess and almost cost LDP a seat to CDP.

[jaichind]

NHK called a PR seat for PNHK ... they finally accept the truth.  Of course  NHK video PNHK is still part of "Others"