2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47789 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #525 on: July 21, 2019, 11:45:47 AM »

Miraisyakai's map of 1- member districts

The one everyone missed, including myself, was 大分(Ōita)

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #526 on: July 21, 2019, 11:52:28 AM »

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.
Chalk it down to a talented challenger?
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Nathan
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« Reply #527 on: July 21, 2019, 11:54:41 AM »

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #528 on: July 21, 2019, 12:13:24 PM »

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.
The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, isn't it?
This election isn't particularly bad except relative to expectations. It's inarguable they under-performed.
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jaichind
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« Reply #529 on: July 21, 2019, 12:15:01 PM »

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.
The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, wasn't it?

2007 for sure was a bad year for LDP
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #530 on: July 21, 2019, 12:17:16 PM »

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.
The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, wasn't it?

2007 for sure was a bad year for LDP
By definition, yeah. It's probably (clearly?) their worse HoC election in the post-1993 era.
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jaichind
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« Reply #531 on: July 21, 2019, 12:42:00 PM »

With 56.15% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK still on track to win a seat !!!
DPP seems to be over-performing and CDP under-performing which is the reverse of 2017 (if we view DPP as the successor or HP)
LDP and DPP are still likely to fall over time.  CDP and JRP likely to rise and perhaps JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   36.13%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.33%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.46%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.87%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.13%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.95%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.31%                                0.5%
RS      4.03%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.04%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.15%                                0.2%
JCP    8.72%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.48%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #532 on: July 21, 2019, 12:47:30 PM »

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           0       0
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

With 1 PR seat not allocated.   Asahi  not certain that PNHK will win a PR set.
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jaichind
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« Reply #533 on: July 21, 2019, 01:13:49 PM »

With 69.85% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.87%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.25%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.80%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.89%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.14%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.79%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.32%                                0.5%
RS      4.13%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.01%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.15%                                0.2%
JCP    8.74%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.50%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #534 on: July 21, 2019, 01:17:55 PM »

福井(Fukui) is the 1- member district where JCP ran as the joint opposition candidate with the JCP label.  One would expect Anti-LDP voters that cannot accept would then most likely vote PNHK.  The result indicates that this is the case

LDP    66.1%
JCP    26.2%
PNHK   7.7%
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jaichind
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« Reply #535 on: July 21, 2019, 01:21:33 PM »

Turnout is estimated to be 48.80%.  In 1995 the record low turnout of 44.52% was reached.  Before 2019 the second lowest turnout in Upper House elections was 1992 at 50.72%
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jaichind
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« Reply #536 on: July 21, 2019, 01:36:33 PM »

With 77.80% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.62%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.23%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.88%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.93%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.08%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.81%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.25%     2                         2.3%
SDP    1.99%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP    8.84%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.51%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #537 on: July 21, 2019, 01:58:19 PM »

With 82.93% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

Does not look like seat count will change from here.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.58%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.20%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.81%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.94%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.04%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.85%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.31%     2                         2.3%
SDP    1.99%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP    8.88%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.52%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #538 on: July 21, 2019, 02:01:19 PM »

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens
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Nathan
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« Reply #539 on: July 21, 2019, 02:02:24 PM »

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens

Based on this I count a pro/anti-revision balance of 161-84 or 160-85 depending on PNHK's leanings (which I know nothing about)?
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jaichind
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« Reply #540 on: July 21, 2019, 02:14:09 PM »

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens

Based on this I count a pro/anti-revision balance of 161-84 or 160-85 depending on PNHK's leanings (which I know nothing about)?

These results would produce

LDP+           71
Center Left   35
Third Pole    11 (I count PNHK as Third Pole given its anti-tax leanings)
JCP               7

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          142
Center Left   72
Third Pole     18
JCP              13

Center Left + JCP would be at 85 which is 34.69% of the 245 Upper House which is enough to block Constitutional Revision even if PNHK goes with Abe on Constitutional Revision.  If Abe really wanted Constitutional Revision his way out is to do a deals with KP JRP AND DPP.  DPP might support a watered down Constitutional Revision on SDF.  All this will be very costly politically and frankly not worth doing.
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jaichind
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« Reply #541 on: July 21, 2019, 02:23:07 PM »

JRP outperformed across the board. 
They beat out JCP in 茨城(Ibaraki), 神奈川(Kanagawa) and 愛知(Aichi) when CW was that they will fall behind JCP in all three prefectures.  They also outperformed in 大阪(Osaka) 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 東京(Tokyo).  Tactical voting by LDP supporters has a lot to do with it.  In 兵庫(Hyōgo) it seems LDP voters tactically voted in excess and almost cost LDP a seat to CDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #542 on: July 21, 2019, 02:26:41 PM »

NHK called a PR seat for PNHK ... they finally accept the truth.  Of course  NHK video PNHK is still part of "Others"
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jaichind
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« Reply #543 on: July 21, 2019, 03:06:37 PM »

With 89.70% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

LDP+KP PR vote share most likely will be below 2013 levels

Does not look like seat count will change from here.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.52%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.10%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.81%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.95%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    6.93%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.87%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.48%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.02%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.90%     4                         9.9%
EP      0.53%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #544 on: July 21, 2019, 03:48:30 PM »

NHK PR count is ahead now so with 93% of the vote counted

PNHK wins a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

LDP+KP PR vote share most likely will be below 2013 levels

Does not look like seat count will change from here.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share    My predicted seats
LDP   35.36%     19                      35.5%                      19
KP     13.10%      7                       13.4%                       7
JRP     9.99%      5                       10.1%                       5
PNHK  1.96%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    6.90%      3                        4.8%                        2
CDP  15.76%      8                      18.9%                      10
Olive   0.34%                                0.5%
RS      4.52%     2                         2.3%                       1
SDP    2.05%     1                         2.1%                       1
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.93%     4                         9.9%                       5
EP      0.53%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #545 on: July 21, 2019, 04:48:39 PM »

With 97% of the vote counted

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share    My predicted seats
LDP   35.37%     19                      35.5%                      19
KP     13.12%      7                       13.4%                       7
JRP     9.84%      5                       10.1%                       5
PNHK  1.96%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.41%                                0.5%
DPP    6.95%      3                        4.8%                        2
CDP  15.78%      8                      18.9%                      10
Olive   0.34%                                0.5%
RS      4.52%     2                         2.3%                       1
SDP    2.10%     1                         2.1%                       1
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.92%     4                         9.9%                       5
EP      0.53%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #546 on: July 21, 2019, 05:09:44 PM »

Kyodo story on RS

Quote
UPDATE1: New group led by actor-turned-politician makes strong showing
TOKYO, July 22 Kyodo
(EDS: RECASTING WITH TWO CANDIDATES' WIN)
A newly created anti-establishment political group Reiwa Shinsengumi, led by actor-turned-politician Taro Yamamoto, made a surprisingly strong showing in Sunday's upper house election, with two severely disabled candidates winning seats.
Yasuhiko Funago, 61, became the first person with Lou Gehrig's disease to be elected as a member of Japan's Diet. Another candidate Eiko Kimura, 54, with cerebral palsy also won a seat.
It is the first time since the current electoral system was introduced in 2001 that a group which is not treated as a major political party in relevant election-related laws has won a parliamentary seat under the proportional representation system.
The group led by the 44-year-old antinuclear activist has called for the abolition of the consumption tax, which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party plans to raise in October, and promised financial relief for households, such as by raising minimum wages.
Yamamoto has also criticized the LDP, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, for failing to lift Japan out of deflation.
He said he wants the public to give more thought to what kinds of support people with disabilities require to improve the quality of their lives, citing education reform as an example.
Yamamoto placed Funago and Kimura in the first and second positions on his group's proportional representation list to ensure it could highlight disability issues if it won seats.
Yamamoto told a press conference that it is important for those with severe illnesses or disabilities to be part of national politics and his party wanted to create "a society that doesn't cut anyone off."
Yamamoto placed himself third on the group's proportional representation list.
Kimura has been disabled since she was 8-months-old, and now uses a wheelchair. She is a long-time activist who has argued for people with disabilities to be enabled to participate fully in society and live as much as possible outside of institutions.
"I am fighting every day to realize a society in which people with disabilities can live, believing that such a society is one in which everyone can live in comfort," she says on her profile page on Reiwa Shinseigumi's website.
Yamamoto left a party he jointly led with veteran lawmaker Ichiro Ozawa to create Reiwa Shinsengumi three months before the upper house election.
The group has proved popular, with Yamamoto campaigning in jeans and a T-shirt and encouraging his audience to ask him questions by passing a microphone.
Reiwa Shinsengumi raised around 300 million yen ($2,784,870) in campaign funds online within a matter of weeks and its volunteers numbered at least 15,000 by early July.
Six years ago, Yamamoto got more than 660,000 votes in the Tokyo constituency.
Yamamoto became known for his antinuclear activities following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear crisis. As an independent upper house member in 2013, he was reprimanded for handing a letter on the nuclear disaster to then-Emperor Akihito at a garden party, triggering criticism that his action could amount to political exploitation of the emperor.
Toru Hasuike, 64, the brother of Kaoru Hasuike who was abducted by North Korea, also ran for Reiwa Shinsengumi but did not win a seat. The former head of secretariat of a group representing family members of Japanese abductees, Hasuike told reporters in May that he shared Yamamoto's antinuclear stance.
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jaichind
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« Reply #547 on: July 21, 2019, 05:54:43 PM »

Asahi exit poll shows that SDP and JCP PR voters are mostly older than 50 while RS is much more middle age and even youth heavy.

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jaichind
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« Reply #548 on: July 21, 2019, 08:59:32 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2019, 07:22:14 AM by jaichind »

For 1- member district the vote share is similar to 2016 levels

LDP                  52.71%
Right                  0.75%
PNHK                 3.64%
HRP                    0.39%
LAB                    0.10%
Left                    0.10%
--------------------------------------
CDP                 10.28%
DPP                   6.69%
OPPN               24.93%
JCP                    0.42%
---------------------------------------
Grand Alliance  42.31% (CDP DPP SDP JCP alliance)

The PR vote distribution in this set of seats are

LDP-KP             52.74%  
Center-Left       30.57% (CDP DPP RS SDP LAB Olive)
Third Pole           8.79% (JRP PNHK HRP)
JCP                    7.39%
EP                     0.36%

If we do a Right/Left breakdown we have for district 57.34/42.51 and for PR 61.53/37.96

In 2016 it was where the LDP vs Grand Alliance vote share are almost identical

LDP                  53.36%
LDP rebels          0.30%
ORA                   0.57%
HRP                   2.97%
ex-YP                 0.32%
NPB                   0.06%
--------------------------------
DP                    22.75%
Oppn Ind.         19.17%
JCP                     0.50%
--------------------------------
Grand alliance   42.42%  (DP PLP SDP JCP) backed candidates

The PR vote distribution in this set of seats are

LDP-KP             53.11%  
ORA+                8.52%    (ORA PJK NPR)
HRP                   0.82%
NPB                   1.11%
DP+                 27.70%   (DP PLP SDP VPA)
JCP                    8.74%

If we do a Right/Left breakdown we have for district 57.51/42.42 and for PR 62.45/36.44
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jaichind
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« Reply #549 on: July 21, 2019, 09:04:58 PM »

Asahi exit poll of party support

LDP   41
KP      7
JRP    7
DPP    4
CDP  15
RS      2
SDP    1
JCP    7
Other 1 (PNHK ?)
Ind.  15

The Ind. vote lean LDP for the youth and leaned CDP and JCP for the older voters


LDP-KP support adds up to 48.  The LDP-KP PR vote will end up being a bit higher than 48%. With a good chunk of Ind. vote going to LDP or KP PR it seems clear some LDP-KP supporters failed to vote LDP-KP on the PR slate.  Most likely for JRP.  Similar for CDP supporters.  CDP PR vote will be a bit less than 16%.  If CDP support is 15% and a good chunk of Ind. voters voted CDP for PR then part of the CDP supporters failed to vote CDP on the PR slate.  Mostly for DPP and RS.
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