2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47778 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #500 on: July 21, 2019, 09:45:12 AM »

Kawai Anri will win the LDP seat in Hiroshima.

In 広島(Hiroshima) with 85% of the vote counted it is

OPPN  31.9%
LDP    28.9%
LDP    27.5%
JCP      6.9%
PNHK   2.4%

LDP came close to winning both seats.  There was not enough votes.
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kaoras
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« Reply #501 on: July 21, 2019, 09:48:37 AM »

Do you know a page where I can see the PR vote breakdown by prefecture?

Also, Tokushima-Kochi seems a bit closer than I would expect given the opposition candidate had JCP background. Maybe it could have been competitive with, say, a CDP candidate?
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jaichind
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« Reply #502 on: July 21, 2019, 09:49:37 AM »

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) with 76% of the vote counted it is

LDP  20.7%
KP    14.6%
JCP   12.9%
CDP  12.6%
LDP    9.6%
JRP    9.4%
CDP   9.2%
RS     3.2%
DPP   3.1%
PNHK 1.8%
Right  1.2% (LDP and anti-Tax background)
SDP   1.0%

RS at 3.2% most likely is costing CDP the seat vs JRP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #503 on: July 21, 2019, 09:52:13 AM »

Do you know a page where I can see the PR vote breakdown by prefecture?

Also, Tokushima-Kochi seems a bit closer than I would expect given the opposition candidate had JCP background. Maybe it could have been competitive with, say, a CDP candidate?

None I know off in terms of PR breakdown by prefecture.

JCP is fairly strong and LDP fairly weakn in 高知(Kōchi).  If 高知(Kōchi) was being contested by itself it will be neck-to-neck like 大分(Ōita) only 大分(Ōita) it is more about SDP strength.   
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Lachi
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« Reply #504 on: July 21, 2019, 09:53:16 AM »

Hyogo seat called for LDP
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jaichind
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« Reply #505 on: July 21, 2019, 09:55:45 AM »

With 0.3% of the vote counted PR is

LDP   44.6%
KP     13.8%
JRP     4.6%
PNHK  1.3%
HRP    0.4%
DPP    8.3%
CDP  13.0%
Olive   0.2%
RS      3.0%
SDP    2.3%
LAB    0.1%
JCP    7.5%
EP     0.4% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

The early count favor LDP so LDP vote share will go down
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jaichind
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« Reply #506 on: July 21, 2019, 10:06:07 AM »

With 4.5% of the vote counted PR is

LDP   38.51%
KP     12.37%
JRP     8.25%
PNHK  1.48%
HRP    0.31%
DPP    7.91%
CDP  16.12%
Olive   0.23%
RS      3.32%
SDP    2.27%
LAB    0.12%
JCP    8.97%
EP     0.34% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

For LDP to be down to 38.51% so early in the count is not a positive sign for LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #507 on: July 21, 2019, 10:13:39 AM »

In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) with 85% of the vote counted it is

LDP  20.7%
KP    14.3%
JCP   12.8%
CDP  12.5%
LDP    9.5%
JRP    9.3%
CDP   9.0%
RS     3.4%
DPP   3.2%
PNHK 1.9%
Right  1.3% (LDP and anti-Tax background)
SDP   1.2%

Most likely CDP is not going to make it.  Very effective tactical voting by LDP voters and poor vote coordination by Center-Left voters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #508 on: July 21, 2019, 10:14:52 AM »

宮城(Miyagi) with 86% of the vote counted it is LDP 48.3 CDP 47.9.  Will come down to the wire as outstanding votes have a slight lean in favor of CDP.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #509 on: July 21, 2019, 10:24:57 AM »

Miyagi goes CDP.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #510 on: July 21, 2019, 10:28:23 AM »

CDP Win Miyagi
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jaichind
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« Reply #511 on: July 21, 2019, 10:28:58 AM »


This night is getting worse and worse for LDP.  With turnout low there was an expectations of a LDP landslide.  It ended up as a win but a fairly minor win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #512 on: July 21, 2019, 10:35:00 AM »

Updated tables

District seat only last seat of 東京(Tokyo) which is a battle between JRP and CDP is not called

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   9                   9

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

5 more PR seats to allocate
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jaichind
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« Reply #513 on: July 21, 2019, 10:35:56 AM »

Asahi site is much faster on the PR count relative to NHK

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/san/kaihyo/C01.html
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #514 on: July 21, 2019, 10:37:02 AM »

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.
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jaichind
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« Reply #515 on: July 21, 2019, 10:43:28 AM »

With 11.50% of the vote counted PR is
         
          Vote       Seat
LDP   37.71%     21
KP     13.69%      7
JRP     8.14%      4
PNHK  1.61%
HRP    0.33%
DPP    7.43%     4
CDP  16.16%     8
Olive   0.25%
RS      3.37%     1
SDP    2.24%     1
LAB    0.12%
JCP    8.58%      4
EP     0.38% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

LDP and DPP vote count will decrease over time and CDP and JRP increase over time as the urban vote comes in.
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jaichind
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« Reply #516 on: July 21, 2019, 10:44:42 AM »

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.
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jaichind
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« Reply #517 on: July 21, 2019, 11:01:14 AM »

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.

I was wrong.  NHK called last seat in 東京(Tokyo) for JRP.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #518 on: July 21, 2019, 11:02:03 AM »

Reliving the results right now and this says it all:



With the LDP projecting losing about 9 seats from 2013 right now, the single member districts is the difference. The 10 include all 9 I/Jaichind last mentioned plus Ōita.
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jaichind
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« Reply #519 on: July 21, 2019, 11:04:38 AM »

With all district seat called it is

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      5           4       9
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   9                   9

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      5           4       9
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

5 more PR seats to allocate
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jaichind
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« Reply #520 on: July 21, 2019, 11:05:50 AM »

Reliving the results right now and this says it all:



With the LDP projecting losing about 9 seats from 2013 right now, the single member districts is the difference. The 10 include all 9 I/Jaichind last mentioned plus Ōita.

I would argue that PNHK cost LDP some of those 1- member seats just like HRP did in 2016.  Still it is up to LDP to get those disgruntled LDP vote and they did not get it done this time just like 2016.
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jaichind
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« Reply #521 on: July 21, 2019, 11:11:57 AM »

With 19.61% of the vote counted PR is
         
          Vote       Seat
LDP   36.37%     20
KP     14.12%      7
JRP     8.52%      4
PNHK  1.76%!!!!
HRP    0.33%
DPP    7.01%     3
CDP  16.57%     9
Olive   0.25%
RS      3.50%     1
SDP    2.15%     1
LAB    0.11%
JCP    9.01%      5
EP     0.41% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

LDP and DPP vote count will decrease over time and CDP and JRP increase over time as the urban vote comes in.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #522 on: July 21, 2019, 11:12:17 AM »

CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.

I was wrong.  NHK called last seat in 東京(Tokyo) for JRP.
Not necessarily incorrect? I thought you said it wasn't a certainty. By proxy, I was saying the same thing, just with a higher lever of probability.
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jaichind
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« Reply #523 on: July 21, 2019, 11:29:51 AM »

With 26.96% of the vote counted PR is
         
LDP-KP already below majority
PNHK gains a seat with these numbers !!!
RS at 2 seats !!!

          Vote       Seat
LDP   35.94%     19
KP     13.79%      7
JRP     9.18%      5
PNHK  1.80%      1 !!!
HRP    0.35%
DPP    7.16%      3
CDP  16.15%      8
Olive   0.27%
RS      3.72%     2
SDP    2.10%     1
LAB    0.13%
JCP    8.98%      4
EP     0.42% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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jaichind
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« Reply #524 on: July 21, 2019, 11:42:50 AM »

With 30.56% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK still on track to win a seat !!!

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   36.09%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.78%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.04%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.84%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.37%                                0.5%
DPP    7.15%      3                        4.8%
CDP  16.13%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.28%                                0.5%
RS      3.78%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.08%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.14%                                0.2%
JCP    8.89%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.44%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)
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