2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll 32 1- member district

LDP 22-26
Opposition 6-8

[jaichind]

That's supermajority territory isn't it?

Yes, only at the upper range.  And that is only because JRP really over performed

[jaichind]

For 東京(Tokyo), NHK exit poll has JRP pulling off an upset and winning a seat from the 2 CDP candidates.  Of course it seems like a 3 way tie between JRP LDP and CDP for the 5th and 6th seats

[jaichind]

If exit polls are right then my theory that the lower turnout also included some LDP turnout drop-off is most likely correct.  If LDP turnout was in full force and we had these turnout figures then it would be a monster LDP-KP victory.

[jaichind]

It seems that there is a RS surge.  They are at 1-3 seats which means they could be as high as 3%-5% to get 2 PR seats.  Most likely that hurt JCP and CDP

[jaichind]

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     29        18      47
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      1          3       4
OPPN   2                   2

8 more PR seats to allocate.  LDP seems like it will get to 20 for sure for PR

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

6 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

NHK 東京(Tokyo) exit poll

For the 5th and 6th seats it has LDP > JRP > CDP

[jaichind]

NHK 大阪(Osaka) exit poll

It has JRP JRP LDP KP winning
Just like 2016 CDP and JCP evenly split the vote to allow the Center-Right parties a clean sweep

[jaichind]

Unknown set of non-NHK exit polls





LDP 59
KP   14
JRP  10
CDP 18
DPP   5
JCP   7
SDP  1
RS    3
OPPN 7

LDP 59 KP 14 is identical to my prediction

[jaichind]

兵庫(Hyōgo) exit poll

CDP is ahead of KP for 3rd seat

[jaichind]

For 神奈川(Kanagawa) NHK has not called it yet but Asahi has called the 4th seats for JRP over JCP

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) has LDP in 4th !!



I always said that 兵庫(Hyōgo) was going to be the most fun

[jaichind]

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     30        18      48
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      1          3       4
OPPN   2                   2

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

the LDP gambit to win 2 of 3 seats in Hokkaido paid off.

That is not much of a gambit.  In a 3 seat district LDP-KP will of course contest 2.  I guess LDP nominating an ex-governor for one of its 2 candidates did draw in a good part of the non-LDP vote which plus the poor DPP candidate and aversion for JRP and KP PR voters to vote JCP produces a LDP win of 2 seats

LDP trying to win 2 out 2 seats in 広島(Hiroshima) would be the real gambit.    As of now it is not clear if that gambit worked

[jaichind]

福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both

[jaichind]

Is there a live ANN news website?

Not one I could find as far is live steam is concerned

results page is

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/

[jaichind]

福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both

why is the LDP losing Nagano?

Prefecture has strong JCP and anti-LDP vote.  DPP incumbent popular and LDP incumbent choose not to run.  In 2013 this was a 2- member district which is now a 1- member district

[jaichind]

Is there a live ANN news website?

Not one I could find

I guess only NHK offers a live news?

Yes.  I am sure if you somehow pay and/or live in Japan that would be a different story

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) shows a very close race but LDP should take it.  How close this is if this exit poll is right is a shock

[jaichind]

Asahi has RS at 2 PR seats ... wow.  That would mean they are at 3.5% at least and perhaps 4.0%.  So in 2017 JCP was hit bad by CDP.  In 2019 now that CDP novelty factor is gone the Center-Left flavor of the week is RS

[jaichind]

Asahi calls  second seat of 広島(Hiroshima) for OPPN defeating LDP's gambit to win both seats.  This is the first seat I got wrong.  It is ironic as I only changed my prediction as the voting started because of low turnout.  I should have stuck to my guns.

[jaichind]

how well is the anti-NHK party doing?

No idea.  Everything is exit poll.  PR vote counting only really takes place after the district votes are mostly counted so we are hours away.  PNHK put out a tweet saying that NHK exit poll leak (ironic is it that the PNHK party will quote a NHK exit poll) has PNHK at 1.7% which is just below the threshold and that everyone has to get out to vote PNHK.

Anyway, no exit poll has PNHK even close to winning a seat.  I suspect they will end up between 1.0%-1.3%

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 滋賀(Shiga) has LDP with a very tiny lead.  OPPN ran an ex-Governor which is paying off since the fundamentals should favor LDP (assuming the JRP PR vote will lean LDP)  



Party breakdown shows that the JRP PR vote broke for OPPN

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 大阪(Osaka) by party.  CDP and JCP PR voters just voted for their candidate so there was no tactical voting

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll by party for 兵庫(Hyōgo)

Not much JCP tactical vote for CDP.  Or else CDP would have won for sure.  As it is it seems to be neck-to-neck.