2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

時事(Jiji) political commentator 加藤清隆(Kiyotaka Katō) projects LDP with 65 seats and KP with 14 seats based on turnout patterns.  This most likely means LDP at 20 PR seats and LDP winning the 32 single member districts something like 28-4.  If you assume the drop in turnout are mostly Center-Left opposition then he is most likely right.  I suspect some of the drop in turnout might also contain LDP voters.  But for sure the turnout pattern favors LDP-KP and of course JCP. 

[jaichind]

NHK count
https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/sangiin/2019/

Asahi count
https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/

These two are usually the fastest and a super set of the two gives the fastest picture

[jaichind]

As of 6PM total turnout looks like

                        2016            2019
10am                7.92             5.65
11am              13.22             9.70
2pm                22.54           18.02
4pm                27.25           22.72
6pm                32.49           27.30
Early vote        15.05           16.01
Final turnout    54.69

Looks like final turnout should be around 50.5%.  Mostly good news for KP JCP LDP  and perhaps SDP and JRP.  For sure hurts CDP

[jaichind]

If turnout ends up around 50-50.5 I think that will be the lowest turnout in any modern Japanese election. It will be even lower than 2013 Upper House election.

[jaichind]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

Live now

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll (100K sample)

LDP-KP 67-77
LDP-KP-JRP 76-88
LDP 55-63
KP 12-14
CDP 16-22
JCP 5-8
JRP 8-11
DPP 5-7
RS 1-3
OPPN 6-10
SDP 0-1

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll 32 1- member district

LDP 22-26
Opposition 6-8

[Lachi]

That's supermajority territory isn't it?

[jaichind]

That's supermajority territory isn't it?

Yes, only at the upper range.  And that is only because JRP really over performed

[jaichind]

For 東京(Tokyo), NHK exit poll has JRP pulling off an upset and winning a seat from the 2 CDP candidates.  Of course it seems like a 3 way tie between JRP LDP and CDP for the 5th and 6th seats

[jaichind]

If exit polls are right then my theory that the lower turnout also included some LDP turnout drop-off is most likely correct.  If LDP turnout was in full force and we had these turnout figures then it would be a monster LDP-KP victory.

[jaichind]

It seems that there is a RS surge.  They are at 1-3 seats which means they could be as high as 3%-5% to get 2 PR seats.  Most likely that hurt JCP and CDP

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

why does the media use red for the LDP and not green?

[jaichind]

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     29        18      47
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      1          3       4
OPPN   2                   2

8 more PR seats to allocate.  LDP seems like it will get to 20 for sure for PR

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

6 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

NHK 東京(Tokyo) exit poll

For the 5th and 6th seats it has LDP > JRP > CDP

[jaichind]

NHK 大阪(Osaka) exit poll

It has JRP JRP LDP KP winning
Just like 2016 CDP and JCP evenly split the vote to allow the Center-Right parties a clean sweep

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the LDP gambit to win 2 of 3 seats in Hokkaido paid off.

[jaichind]

Unknown set of non-NHK exit polls





LDP 59
KP   14
JRP  10
CDP 18
DPP   5
JCP   7
SDP  1
RS    3
OPPN 7

LDP 59 KP 14 is identical to my prediction

[jaichind]

兵庫(Hyōgo) exit poll

CDP is ahead of KP for 3rd seat

[jaichind]

For 神奈川(Kanagawa) NHK has not called it yet but Asahi has called the 4th seats for JRP over JCP

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) has LDP in 4th !!



I always said that 兵庫(Hyōgo) was going to be the most fun

[jaichind]

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     30        18      48
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      1          3       4
OPPN   2                   2

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate

[jaichind]

the LDP gambit to win 2 of 3 seats in Hokkaido paid off.

That is not much of a gambit.  In a 3 seat district LDP-KP will of course contest 2.  I guess LDP nominating an ex-governor for one of its 2 candidates did draw in a good part of the non-LDP vote which plus the poor DPP candidate and aversion for JRP and KP PR voters to vote JCP produces a LDP win of 2 seats

LDP trying to win 2 out 2 seats in 広島(Hiroshima) would be the real gambit.    As of now it is not clear if that gambit worked

[jaichind]

福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both

[Cape Verde]

Is there a live ANN news website?