2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47798 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #425 on: July 21, 2019, 06:42:05 AM »


Not one I could find as far is live steam is concerned

results page is

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #426 on: July 21, 2019, 06:42:25 AM »

福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both
why is the LDP losing Nagano?
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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« Reply #427 on: July 21, 2019, 06:43:07 AM »


I guess only NHK offers a live news?
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jaichind
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« Reply #428 on: July 21, 2019, 06:44:14 AM »

福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both
why is the LDP losing Nagano?

Prefecture has strong JCP and anti-LDP vote.  DPP incumbent popular and LDP incumbent choose not to run.  In 2013 this was a 2- member district which is now a 1- member district
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jaichind
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« Reply #429 on: July 21, 2019, 06:45:00 AM »


Yes.  I am sure if you somehow pay and/or live in Japan that would be a different story
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jaichind
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« Reply #430 on: July 21, 2019, 06:46:27 AM »

Asahi exit poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) shows a very close race but LDP should take it.  How close this is if this exit poll is right is a shock

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jaichind
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« Reply #431 on: July 21, 2019, 06:47:47 AM »

Asahi has RS at 2 PR seats ... wow.  That would mean they are at 3.5% at least and perhaps 4.0%.  So in 2017 JCP was hit bad by CDP.  In 2019 now that CDP novelty factor is gone the Center-Left flavor of the week is RS
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #432 on: July 21, 2019, 06:49:30 AM »

how well is the anti-NHK party doing?
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jaichind
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« Reply #433 on: July 21, 2019, 06:51:15 AM »

Asahi calls  second seat of 広島(Hiroshima) for OPPN defeating LDP's gambit to win both seats.  This is the first seat I got wrong.  It is ironic as I only changed my prediction as the voting started because of low turnout.  I should have stuck to my guns.
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jaichind
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« Reply #434 on: July 21, 2019, 06:53:10 AM »


No idea.  Everything is exit poll.  PR vote counting only really takes place after the district votes are mostly counted so we are hours away.  PNHK put out a tweet saying that NHK exit poll leak (ironic is it that the PNHK party will quote a NHK exit poll) has PNHK at 1.7% which is just below the threshold and that everyone has to get out to vote PNHK.

Anyway, no exit poll has PNHK even close to winning a seat.  I suspect they will end up between 1.0%-1.3%
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jaichind
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« Reply #435 on: July 21, 2019, 06:54:44 AM »

NHK exit poll for 滋賀(Shiga) has LDP with a very tiny lead.  OPPN ran an ex-Governor which is paying off since the fundamentals should favor LDP (assuming the JRP PR vote will lean LDP)  



Party breakdown shows that the JRP PR vote broke for OPPN
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jaichind
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« Reply #436 on: July 21, 2019, 06:57:27 AM »

NHK exit poll for 大阪(Osaka) by party.  CDP and JCP PR voters just voted for their candidate so there was no tactical voting

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jaichind
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« Reply #437 on: July 21, 2019, 06:58:45 AM »

NHK exit poll by party for 兵庫(Hyōgo)

Not much JCP tactical vote for CDP.  Or else CDP would have won for sure.  As it is it seems to be neck-to-neck.

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jaichind
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« Reply #438 on: July 21, 2019, 07:00:14 AM »

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) by party

Equal number of LDP PR voters voted for CDP and JCP Huh



Looks like it will be close then between CDP and JCP for 2nd seat
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jaichind
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« Reply #439 on: July 21, 2019, 07:06:07 AM »

As of 7:30PM total turnout looks like

                        2016            2019
10am                7.92             5.65
11am              13.22             9.70
2pm                22.54           18.02
4pm                27.25           22.72
6pm                32.49           27.30
7:30pm           36.14           30.11
Early vote        15.05           16.01
Final turnout    54.69

Looks like final turnout will be around 50%
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jaichind
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« Reply #440 on: July 21, 2019, 07:08:33 AM »

鹿児島(Kagoshima) and 長崎(Nagasaki) not called yet.  LDP must be under-performing in both.   鹿児島(Kagoshima)  it must be because of the LDP rebel.  長崎(Nagasaki)  as pointed out before it seems OPPN is just doing very well.  LDP will win both but this seems like a scare for them.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #441 on: July 21, 2019, 07:10:25 AM »

does Fukushima prefecture like the LDP more than others in Tohoku?
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jaichind
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« Reply #442 on: July 21, 2019, 07:11:23 AM »

In some of the prefectures with some non trivial number of votes counted (like above 10K) the PNHK vote share is around 1%.  Most likely PNHK PR vote will be around that level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #443 on: July 21, 2019, 07:12:54 AM »

does Fukushima prefecture like the LDP more than others in Tohoku?

No, if anything LDP's brand is quite poor here for all sorts of reasons including nuclear power.  The LDP candidate broke with the national LDP and is anti-nuclear.  This I think is part of the reason why LDP won here.  Back in 2016 the LDP candidate tried to doge the nuclear issue and was defeated
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jaichind
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« Reply #444 on: July 21, 2019, 07:24:38 AM »

So now the Abe battle to have LDP-KP-JRP to retain 2/3 majority will come down the the Northern Japan 1- member districts of 岩手(Iwate) 宮城(Miyagi) 秋田(Akita) and 山形(Yamagata).  Lower turnout now gives a LDP a chance whereas the opposition grand alliance should win in all 4.
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jaichind
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« Reply #445 on: July 21, 2019, 07:27:38 AM »

ANN exit poll has

LDP   57
KP     14
JRP     9
PNHK  1
DPP    5
CDP  20
RS      2
SDP    1
JCP     7
OPPN  8



So one exit poll that has PNHK winning a seat.  I am skeptical
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #446 on: July 21, 2019, 07:27:44 AM »

Akita falls away from LDP
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jaichind
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« Reply #447 on: July 21, 2019, 07:28:53 AM »

NHK called 秋田(Akita) for OPPN.  First 1- member district battleground to be called.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #448 on: July 21, 2019, 07:29:17 AM »

LDP hold Tochigi
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jaichind
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« Reply #449 on: July 21, 2019, 07:36:53 AM »

Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     31        18      49
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   3                   3

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate
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