Republican South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET) (user search)
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  Republican South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republican South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET)  (Read 61829 times)
jaichind
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Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« on: February 20, 2016, 04:54:17 PM »
CNN claims that they are 6 minutes from the first exit polls.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2016, 05:28:56 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 20, 2016, 05:24:47 PM
In Iowa didn't Trump only get 11% of the late deciders? If so that doesn't bode well...

Yeah, but that was under the shadow of that missed debate.  The narrative in the last few days is not as negative for Trump.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2016, 05:36:47 PM »
Terrorism being the top issue is not positive for Trump.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2016, 06:01:06 PM »
I think Clinton winning in NV might marginally help Rubio since polls are still open in SC.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2016, 06:03:43 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on February 20, 2016, 06:02:08 PM
Quote from: jaichind on February 20, 2016, 06:01:06 PM
I think Clinton winning in NV might marginally help Rubio since polls are still open in SC.

Why would Clinton winning in NV help Rubio?

Rubio being seen as more electable versus a mainstream Dem will be more important.  If Sanders is the Dem candidate than it gives the GOP to go with its more extreme candidates, helping Trump or Cruz.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2016, 06:27:03 PM »
Most unfair campaign result tells us what we already know already, both Trump and Cruz have fairly low ceilings.  
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2016, 06:32:13 PM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on February 20, 2016, 06:30:27 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on February 20, 2016, 06:29:16 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on February 20, 2016, 06:27:57 PM
Looks like Rubio's unlikely to win. Thank God.

A 3rd place finish will make him the story. And if he gets 2nd? Forget it, he's the inevitable nominee.
Even if he ends up leading Trump and Cruz in polling.  He still has to avoid a brokered convention.  Both candidates have die hard supporters who'll never abandon them.

Well, if Rubio can get it to be a 3 man race by the time we get to the winner-take-all states he can, not necessary will though,  win a majority of delegates on his own.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2016, 06:37:59 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 20, 2016, 06:34:54 PM
MSNBC says we're in for a long and fun night lol

Must be exit polls pointed to a close 3 way race between Trump Cruz and Rubio.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2016, 06:41:30 PM »
Quote from: Thomas D on February 20, 2016, 06:40:42 PM
I want to meet the South Carolina GOP voter who says "I LOVE the Federal Government."

Well, there is still some space between anrgy and love.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2016, 06:54:59 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 20, 2016, 06:53:32 PM
Fox exit poll (if my math is right):

Trump 30%
Cruz 25.5%
Rubio 24%


If these are the results then Bush and Carson should drop out tonight.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2016, 07:22:13 PM »
Trump tweet sets the bar at a 1 vote victory.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2016, 07:42:11 PM »
Rubio ahead now, barely.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2016, 08:04:45 PM »
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on February 20, 2016, 08:01:22 PM
Rubio back ahead with around 2,000 votes more than Cruz now.

Big data dump from Beaufort.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2016, 08:06:55 PM »
Lexington County results so far not so good Rubio.  He is not doing as well as he should.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2016, 08:09:03 PM »
It seems that Greenville County which has no real results in yet will determine who will come in second.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2016, 08:09:54 PM »
Quote from: Watermelon sin Jamón on February 20, 2016, 08:08:52 PM
Neck and neck horse races for 2nd and for 4th !

Cruz should have a slight edge.  Strong places for Rubio has come in a lot already.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2016, 08:15:53 PM »
Quote from: Higgs on February 20, 2016, 08:13:59 PM
For everyone freaking out about how the media spins Rubio's performance, know this: 2nd or 3rd would be a win for Rubio. If finishing in 3rd can knock Bush out then Rubio gains siginificantly, as he would be the main benefactor. If Rubio finishes in 2nd then that's a huge hit to the Cruz campaign. A 1st place finish doesn't matter for Rubio this early on because so long as he gets 3rd and then 2nd place finishes, candidates will drop out and the support will most likely consolidate with Rubio. Rubio has the potential to beat Trump in a 1 on 1, so it's all about beating the other candidates right now, and then beating Trump later when the other candidates are gone.

Yes, 2nd and 3rd does not matter as much until we get to the winner-take-all states.  But Rubio has to get above 30% when he goes into those states in three way races or he is dead.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2016, 08:57:29 PM »
Spartanburg County is the only large county left without much coming in.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2016, 09:01:05 PM »
Unless Spartanburg County gives Cruz a large gap over Rubio it seems Rubio is in a strong position to come in second.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2016, 09:23:10 PM »
Looking at what is outstanding, Trump's vote share will fall while Rubio and Cruz vote share will rise.  Trump will most likely end up between 31 and 32.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2016, 09:29:30 PM »
Bush getting out and Carson going on is the best scenario for Rubio.  Only thing to make it better would be for Kasich to get out too.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2016, 09:31:10 PM »
Spartanburg County came in.   Cruz net gain 800 votes.  Closes the gap somewhat with Rubio but not enough.  
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2016, 09:33:24 PM »
Spartanburg County is also a lot better for Trump than I expected.  He will be at least 32% then.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2016, 09:39:32 PM »
Greenville County and York County still have large chunks left.  Greenville County should help Rubio vis-a-vis Curz and York County the other way around.  So they should be mostly a wash.  If that is the case it is hard to see where Cruz gets to votes to overtake Rubio.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #24 on: February 20, 2016, 10:19:18 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on February 20, 2016, 10:17:19 PM
At this point, are we pretty sure that Rubio will get 2nd?

Yep.  Unless there are outstanding postal ballots that we are not aware of.
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