Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

Most of the efforts between DPJ and JCP has been talks on how to have JCP withdraw candidates in the 1- seat districts to give a united opposition to LDP-KP.  I wonder why these talks are not extended to districts which are 2- seats or higher as there are all sorts of theoretical opportunities and risk mitigation for the anti-LDP bloc in those areas.  Namely

北海道   (Hokkaido) - In this 3- seat district, LDP will nominate 2, DPJ-JIP will nominate 2, ORA will nominate 1 and JCP will nominate 1.   Looking at the vote bases of of these 4 blocs it is clear that it will be LDP 2 DPJ-JIP 1.  But if DPJ-JIP run 1 candidate and have part of their vote base tactically vote for JCP then it could be LDP 1 DPJ-JIP 1 JCP 1.

神奈川   (Kanagawa) - In this 4- seat district, LDP will nominate 1 but back an ex-YP independent incumbent for a second seat, KP will nominate 1, ORA will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1, JCP will nominate 1.  Given the personal vote of the LDP backed ex-YP independent it seems likely it will be LDP 2 KP 1 DPJ 1.  But if part DPJ-JIP vote base tactically vote for JCP then it will be LDP 1 KP 1 DPJ 1 JCP 1.

愛知(Aichi) - In this 4- seat district which has a historical DPJ lean, LDP will nominate 1, KP will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 2, ORA will nominate 1, JCP will nominate 1.   SDP is running a candidate here as well with further splits the non-LDP vote.  The result will be LDP 1 KP 1 DPJ-JIP 1 with DPJ-JIP, ORA, JCP fighting for the last one.  The ORA candidate could be backed by TCJ which means it could win the 4th seat.  This one will be tough but toward the end there might be a need for for DPJ-JIP and JCP to tactically vote for the stronger of the two to block ORA.

京都(Kyoto) - In this 2- seat district, LDP, ORA, DPJ-JIP, JCP will each nominate a candidate.  LDP should win 1 with ORA, DPJ-JIP and JCP fighting for the last seat.   The LDP vote base is shifting over to ORA here and it could be that LDP ORA will win 1 each locking out DPJ-JIP and JCP.  DPJ-JIP and JCP are equally strong here so it would be tough but there would need to have tactical voting to block out ORA.

大阪(Osaka) - In this 4- seat district ORA is taken up almost the entire non-LDP space.  LDP and KP will nominate 1 each, ORA will nominate 2, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1 and JCP will nominate 1.  With JCP only slightly stronger than DPJ-JIP chances are LDP-JP and ORA will win all 4 seats.  DPJ-JIP tactical voting might be needed to prevent a complete sweep by LDP-KP and ORA.

兵庫(Hyōgo) - In this 3- seat district, LDP will nominate 2, ORA will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1, and JCP will nominate 1.  Here the lead LDP and ORA have over DPJ-JIP and JCP separately are so large that it is a foregone conclusions that it will be LDP 2 ORA 1.  Only if DPJ-JIP and JCP united behind one candidate could it take one from LDP.  Tactical voting is not good enough.

広島(Hiroshima) - In this 2- seat district, LDP will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1, ORA will nominate 1, and JCP will nominate 1.  On paper the result should be LDP 1 DPJ 1.  But the ORA candidate if fairly popular and with her personal base plus the ORA base could draw enough votes to win, however unlikely.  Here JCP tactical voting for DPJ-JIP might be needed to make sure ORA does not win.


All these possibilities will be hard to carry out given the hostilely of the local DPJ and especially JIP vote base toward the JCP which I suspect why they are not being discussed.  But not trying out these idea just means handing LDP-KP or ORA more seats.  

[jaichind]

DPJ-JIP are now working on getting PLP and AEJ to disband to merge into this new party.  The lobbying are taking place at the party level as well as the individual MP levels (the former YP or former AEJ MPs).

[jaichind]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/02/21/national/politics-diplomacy/with-new-tv-show-osakas-hashimoto-plots-return-to-public-eye/#.Vs2xivkrIuU

Hashimoto will now host a new TV show to get back into the public eye.  He will most likely, for now, not run for office in 2016 elections but he will be back in some form to politics one way or another soon enough.

[jaichind]

I thought NPD was center-left, not center-right.

Not really,  NPD is a clientelist party centered around  鈴木宗男 (Suzuki Muneo) who was a key kingpin of LDP in Hokkaido.  He was close to the postmaster clique so he bolted from LDP in 2005 over the post office reforms creating NPD and taking his LDP faction in Hokkaido with him. Note that he was already in trouble with the law by that time over corruption charges so forming his own party was key for him to push the narrative that his legal troubles stem from a vengeful LDP.  Anyway NPD adopted center-left positions even as its DNA was center-right to aid in his alliance with DPJ which was necessary to be competitive with LDP-KP.  He was also able to build support for NPD around Hokkaido regionalism.  I guess this time around he sees the JIP as too much of a threat to his vote base so he is going with LDP, for now. 

[jaichind]

The national LDP decided not to contest the Kyoto 3rd district by-election claiming that the sentiment in the district is too negative on LDP to bother running a candidate.  The local Kyoto LDP will still try get someone to run.  Not clear if LDP will back KP, if they run, or perhaps ORA, they will for sure run, or just allows for a free vote by LDP supporters.

[jaichind]

New Nikkei poll is interesting.  It has

Abenomics at 31/50 approval/disapproval
Abe Cabinet at 47/39 approval/disapproval
April 2017 Tax increase 33/58 approval/disapproval
BOJ negative rates 23/53 approval/disapproval

Hopes DPJ-JIP merger 25/64
LDP PR support            33
DPJ-JIP PR support       13

So net effect is Abe economic policies are falling flat on its face but Abe is much more popular than his policies while DPJ-JIP merger is unlikely to be able to take advantage of this situation.

[jaichind]

The center-right wing of DPJ which take a dim view of alliance with JCP by DPJ-JIP have mostly accepted it for now but is pushing for an alliance or at least tactical understanding with ORA.  The ORA itself is trying to rope in ARG (the JIP splinter 改革結集の会 recently got an official English name called Vision of Reform.)  So I guess I will start calling it VOR instead of ARG.  Anyway, various parts of DPJ and/or JIP are also working to bring VOR AEJ and other ex-YP independents into its Grand Alliance for the Upper House elections in the Summer. 

[jaichind]

The growing pessimism on the economy is growing to a point that there are all sorts of rumors that Abe will pull off what he did in 2014 and call a lower House double election in 2016 to get the mandate to delay the 2017 consumer tax increase.  Abe in theory has ruled this out but the rumors will not stop.  It is getting to the point where every Abe public appearance he has to re-rule out this possibility.   

[jaichind]

It seems like in 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 三重(Mie) the JCP agreed to withdraw their candidate pending the Center-Left candidate (PLP in Iwate and DPJ in the other two) pledge to work toward reversing the new Security Law.  This is addition to 熊本(Kumamoto) and 沖縄(Okinawa) where JCP already agreed to back the Center-Left opposition.  As far as the impact on the race this means that in Iwate it will move from leaning PLP to solid PLP, in Miyagi it will move from solid LDP to lean LDP, and in Mie it will move from lean LDP to tossup lean DPJ.

The other areas of opportunities for JCP to withdraw to help the Center-Left would be 山形(Yamagata), 福島(Fukushima), 山梨(Yamanashi), 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano), 滋賀(Shiga), and 大分(Ōita).  In each one of them JCP withdrawing would at least give the Center-Left candidate to win if not making it tossup lean Center-Left over LDP.  Talks are ongoing in those districts.






 

[jaichind]

It is interesting to get some insights on who votes ORA which is positioning itself as a rightist populist party.  At least in the Osaka Governor and Mayoral elections of late 2015 when it was ORA vs LDP (backed by DPJ and JCP), the exit polls show

 

That the ORA vote is dominated by college graduates while LDP+DPJ+JCP vote lean toward those without a college degree.  As for professions, ORA is overweight in housewives and white collar professionals.  This seem to run opposite to the support base other rightists populist parties in the rest of the world.

[jaichind]

It's really odd that the postal reform rebels are still around. I know the one that Alberto Fujimori ran under in 2007 folded after the 2012 election.

There were 3 of them.  NPD, PNP and NPN.  NPD was really about political cover for 鈴木宗男 (Suzuki Muneo) and try to attract anti-Postal Reform rebels from LDP.  NPD now exist mostly as a Hokkaido regional party.  PNP is really about 亀井静香(Kamei Shizuka) who was a factional leader of the LDP (he ran against Koizumi in 2001 and 2003 LDP leadership contests and came in second in 2003.) who was opposed to postal reform and he also got a few anti-postal reform LDP MPs to join him.  PNP was the party that Fujimori ran on the PR list in 2007.  It mostly folded in early 2013 when the last members defected back to LDP leaving Kamei by himself.   Kamei is now a pro-DPJ independent MP.  NPN is interesting.   It was founded 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) who was elected as the governor of 長野(Nagano) defeating the pro-LDP candidate on a libertarian right platform in 2002.  On can argue that NPN is really a precursor to YP.  NPN counted as a postal reform rebel party most because Tanaka took advantage of the LDP postal reform rebellion to take in some LDP rebels and build his anti-LDP libertarian right party.  It mostly flopped and could only go anywhere as an ally of DPJ and degenerated into a personal party of Tanaka abandoning a lot of its original reform ideals.  Its failure paved the way and space for YP to emerge in 2009.  It is mostly defunct.

One can argue that PJK should also count as a postal reform rebel party.  PJK really came from SPJ which was founded in 2010 by old postal rebel 平沼赳夫(Hiranuma Takeo).  This stream of postal reform rebels is the hawk extreme right which now make up PJK.  Of course Hiranuma himself went back to LDP in late 2015 after leaving it in 2005 over postal reform.

[jaichind]

There seems to be now talks between DPJ and Ozawa about PLP also merging into this new DPJ-JIP party.  This might gain a seat for the opposition since the likely PLP vote share on the PR vote would but it on the boundary of getting a seat.  The PLP PR vote merged into the DPJ-JIP PR vote would ensure that the PLP PR vote is not wasted.

[jaichind]

This may be a big ask, but what is the political gepgraphy of Japan like? As I understand it, the big cities of Tokyo and Osaka are swingy between the left and "populist" right while rural areas are dominated by LDP machine votes? Is that right?

I wrote something a while ago that listed all the different prefectures and what the local balance of power are among different blocs.  While before urban areas are non-LDP, the trend has been the last few election cycles that LDP is gaining in urban areas against DPJ.  DPJ and other center-left opposition have strength in certain non-urban regions like Hokkaido (mainly because of NPD alliance), Iwate (because of PLP), Mie (strong labor unions), Okinawa (anti-LDP sentiment is strong), and Aichi (old DPJ stronghold).  The urbanized areas like Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Chiba area all trending LDP. 

Now that all prefecture elections of 2015 are over with (except Okinawa where there is an election in 2016) it is useful to look at the state of play at politics of the prefecture level.  This is one of the pillars of LDP domination of Japanese politics.  All prefecture elections are based on SNTV  in multi-member constituency, so other than a bias toward LDP seat count in rural Japan where the district sizes are often just 1- or 2- seats, the seat distributions are PR-like.  

So looking at the % of seats in each prefecture for each of the political blocs does give a sense the relative strength of the blocs in each prefecture.  On thing that makes this analysis hard is the large number of independents elected.  But it turned out almost all of these independents are either backed by LDP-KP or the anti-LDP-KP center-left opposition blocs or in the case of LDP, a member of a minority faction of the LDP in the prefecture.  Most of the time these independents also joins the caucus of the party they are aligned with or are from.  If they are front a minority faction they the caucus of the minority faction they are from.  I grouped these independents with the party they are aligned with.

Those that ran and won as LDP or LDP backed or some minority faction of LDP I count under LDP+.  Since in all prefectures LDP and KP are allied I also show the percentage of the prefecture assembly that LDP+KP has as well.  JCP is easy since they always run on the JCP ticket.  All DPJ, PLP, SDP, or some other local center-left opposition party, plus independents allied with any of these parties I count as DPJ+.  I also include various independents without LDP+ background and not aligned with the LDP+ power structure but without clear center-left background either as part of DPJ+ as must of the votes for these members are from the DPJ+ vote base anyway. I count JIP, ORA, and post-YP independents as JIP+.  

           LDP+        KP       LDP+KP      DPJ+     JIP+      JCP    
北海道50.50%   7.92%   58.42%   37.62%   0.00%   3.96% Hokkaido
青森   62.50%   6.25%   68.75%   25.00%   0.00%   6.25% Aomori
岩手   43.75%   2.08%   45.83%   47.92%   0.00%   6.25% Iwate
宮城   54.24%   6.78%   61.02%   20.34%   5.08%  13.56% Miyagi
秋田   62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33% Akita
山形   68.18%   2.27%   70.45%   25.00%   0.00%   4.55% Yamagata
福島   51.72%   5.17%   56.90%   29.31%   5.17%   8.62% Fukushima
茨城   71.43%   6.35%   77.78%   17.46%   0.00%   4.76% Ibaraki
栃木   58.00%   6.00%   64.00%   24.00%  10.00%   2.00% Tochigi
群馬   66.00%   6.00%   72.00%   24.00%   0.00%   4.00% Gunma
埼玉   56.99%   9.68%   66.67%   27.96%   0.00%   5.38% Saitama
千葉   57.89%   8.42%   66.32%   26.32%   2.11%   5.26% Chiba
神奈川47.62%   9.52%   57.14%   31.43%   5.71%   5.71% Kanagawa
山梨   65.79%   2.63%   68.42%   28.95%   0.00%   2.63% Yamanashi
東京   46.46% 18.11%   64.57%   14.96%   7.09% 13.39% Tokyo
新潟   66.04%   3.77%   69.81%   28.30%   0.00%   1.89% Niigata
富山   75.00%   2.50%   77.50%   20.00%   0.00%   2.50% Toyama
石川   69.77%   4.65%   74.42%   23.26%   0.00%   2.33% Ishikawa
福井   72.97%   2.70%   75.68%   21.62%   0.00%   2.70% Fukui
長野   37.93% 17.24%   55.17%   29.31%   1.72%  13.79% Nagano
岐阜   69.57%   4.35%   73.91%   21.74%   2.17%   2.17% Gifu
静岡   59.42%   7.25%   66.67%   31.88%   0.00%   1.45% Shizuoka
愛知   56.86%   5.88%   62.75%   32.35%   2.94%   1.96% Aichi
三重   41.18%   3.92%   45.10%   49.02%   1.96%   3.92% Mie
滋賀   47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   40.91%   0.00%   6.82% Shiga
京都   46.67%   8.33%   55.00%   18.33%   3.33%  23.33% Kyoto
大阪   29.55% 17.05%   46.59%    1.14%   48.86%   3.41% Osaka
兵庫   52.33% 15.12%   67.44%   16.28%  10.47%   5.81% Hyōgo
奈良   50.00%   6.82%   56.82%   20.45% 11.36%  11.36% Nara
和歌山71.43%   7.14%   78.57%   11.90%   2.38%   7.14% Wakayama
鳥取   60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   25.71%   0.00%   5.71% Tottori
島根   64.86%   5.41%   70.27%   24.32%   0.00%   5.41% Shimane
岡山   65.45%   9.09%   74.55%   20.00%   0.00%   5.45% Okayama
広島   65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   23.44%   0.00%   1.56% Hiroshima
山口   68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26% Yamaguchi
徳島   74.36%   5.13%   79.49%   12.82%   0.00%   7.69% Tokushima
香川   70.73%   4.88%   75.61%   19.51%   0.00%   4.88% Kagawa
愛媛   61.70%   6.38%   68.09%   17.02% 12.77%   2.13% Ehime
高知   54.05%   8.11%   62.16%   27.03%   0.00% 10.81% Kōchi
福岡   59.30% 12.79%   72.09%   25.58%   0.00%   2.33% Fukuoka
佐賀   71.05%   5.26%   76.32%   18.42%   0.00%   5.26% Saga
長崎   60.87%   6.52%   67.39%   28.26%   2.17%   2.17% Nagasaki
熊本   64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   27.08%   0.00%   2.08% Kumamoto
大分   55.81%   6.98%   62.79%   32.56%   2.33%   2.33% Ōita
宮崎   64.10%   7.69%   71.79%   23.08%   0.00%   5.13% Miyazaki
鹿児島72.55%   5.88%   78.43%   17.65%   1.96%   1.96% Kagoshima
沖縄   31.25% 10.42%   41.67%   43.75%   6.25%   8.33% Okinawa
Tot    57.30%   8.12%   65.41%   25.06%   3.95%   5.62%

The domination of the LDP is clear.  Due to threshold effects especially in rural districts the LDP vote share are usually around 5% less than their seat percentage.    The result is clear to seat.  LDP-KP has a majority in nearly every prefecture, sometimes by massive margins which is especially impressive given the psudo PR nature of seat allocation.   The only prefectures where LDP-KP does not have a majority are 岩手 (Iwate), 三重 (Mie), 沖縄 (Okinawa), and 大阪(Osaka).  In the first 3 DPJ+ has the upper hand but does not have a simple majority either. Only with JCP backing does DPJ+ have a majority in these 3 prefectures.  In Osaka ORA has a plurality over LDP-KP but does not have a majority either with DPJ and JCP who are both anti-ORA having the balance of power.

All things equal LDP-KP vote share in prefecture elections tends to be around 5%-8% higher than their vote share in national elections in each prefecture in question.

[jaichind]

A key aide of PM Abe pretty much said that there is a 90% chance of a lower House election this year.  He pointed out that as long as the LDP wins the April Hokkaido 5th District by-election then LDP will most likely Abe will take the plunge.  Implicit in all this is that if Abe leads the LDP to 2 landslides victories in 2016 plus his landslide victory in 2012 2013 and 2014, he should deserve a change in LDP rules for him to run for a third term as LDP president and continue being PM well after 2018.

[jaichind]

I know I am obsessed with this topic because it find it so funny.  But here is a picture of Abe meeting the new Miss Japan which is the daughter of his political enemy and JIP leader Matsuno.  



When Abe asked her what her future plans are, Matsuno said that she wanted to go into politics just like her father.  Abe then said "you must run for LDP."

[jaichind]

For the new name of the united party, DPJ proposes 立憲民主党 (Constitutional Democratic Party) while JIP proposes 民進党 (Democratic Progressive Party).

[jaichind]

For the new name of the united party, DPJ proposes 立憲民主党 (Constitutional Democratic Party) while JIP proposes 民進党 (Democratic Progressive Party).

I like the first one better, and not only because it'd be dumb to have two prominent Democratic Progressive Parties in East Asia.

Well, I obviously object to Democratic Progressive Party in the sense that out of all the larger political parities in the world the pro-Taiwan Independence DPP of ROC is the party I detest the most.  If we rank political ideas I detest the most it would be Taiwan Independence as number one followed closely by Welfare State as number two.

[jaichind]

DPJ and JIP merged party will be called 民進黨 or DIP (Democratic Innovation Party) based on polls the DPJ and JIP did to see which name is more popular.  In theory 民進黨 should translate into Democratic Progressive Party but I guess JIP wanted the word Innovation in it.

[jaichind]

Update on DIP-JCP talks on JCP withdrawing candidates in 1- seat district and backing the DIP candidate running as an independent



Those district in Blue are prefectures where such a deal have been made.  They are

宮城   Miyagi
福井   Fukui
長野   Nagano
徳島/高知   Tokushima/Kōchi
宮崎   Miyazaki
沖縄   Okinawa (not Blue yet because DIP has to come out for the Leftist independent which they will)

Frankly, other than Nagano, Miyagi, and Okinawa as none of the other districts makes a difference as the LDP is going to win no matter what.  What is key is to get deals in places like 岩手   Iwate (just to make sure PLP wins), 山形 Yamagata, 福島   Fukushima, 山梨 Yamanashi, 新潟 Niigata, 三重 Mie, and 滋賀 Shiga.  These are LDP-DIP marginal seats where JCP support could make it competitive or give DIP the edge.

[jaichind]

Time for a projection update from me.   Given the DPJ-JIP merger into DIP as well as progress on DIP-JCP talks on joint candidates it does shift around what I would expect the result to be as well as what those on Japanese political discussion broad consensus are.  I assume that DIP and JCP will eventually make deals in 1- seats districts where it counts but fail to do so for multi-member districts.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP LDP DIP  
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP          
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                
福島   Fukushima       1             DIP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DIP                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DIP                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DIP                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DIP JCP          
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP        
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DIP JCP DIP
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DIP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DIP                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DIP DIP                
三重   Mie                   1             DIP                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP        
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DIP    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA ORA                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DIP    
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DIP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP          

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       32.0%          16               43                       59
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DIP        25.0%          12              16                       28
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         2.0%             1                1                        2
ORA      10.0%             5                3                        8
PJK         0.75%           0                0                         0
JCP       12.5%             6                2                         8
AEJ         0.75%           0                0                        0
OSMP                                             1                        1

As for Japanese political discussion boards.  The consensus there is a bit more bullish for LDP and ORA than what I have in terms of PR vote.  For district seats they seem to match my projection except for

1) 神奈川(Kanagawa) - Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that a second ex-YP MP now running with LDP will win the last seat over JCP.  I say the ability of LDP-KP to coordinate the votes among 3 candidates will be hard and DIP tactical voting will give JCP the last seat.
2) 東京(Tokyo) -  Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that ORA will capture the last seat as opposed to the second DIP candidate.  I say that anti-LDP center-right vote will be split between ORA and the AEJ candidate giving DIP the last seat.
3) 愛知(Aichi) -  Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that ORA will capture the last seat over DIP given the ORA alliance with the DPJ Aichi center-right splinter TCJ.  I say that TCJ vote base overlaps with ORA anyway so the sum the two is not enough to stop DIP from winning its second seat.
4) 三重(Mie) - Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that the DIP-JCP alliance will not click and LDP will win this old LDP-DPJ marginal seat.  I say the anti-LDP base is large enough here that DIP with JCP support should win.
 
These differences gives us

         Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       33.5%          17               45                       62
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DPJ        21.5%          11              13                       23
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         1.5%             0                1                        1
ORA       12.5%            6                5                      11
PJK         1.5%            0                0                         0
JCP       12.0%             6                1                        7
AEJ         0.5%            0                0                        0
OSMP                                            1                        1

So I have pro-Constitutional change/anti-Constitutional change at 81/40 while the Japanese political discussion board consensus has it at 87/34.

[jaichind]

jaichind, any chance Minshintō gets a logo or something unveiled soon? I'd like to put one in my signature.

(P.S. the official English name is just 'Democratic Party', which I think is stupid.)

Wow. I did not check.  I had no idea they decided to map 民進黨 to DP.   Looking at

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Innovation_Party#cite_note-dp-1

It seems DIP is an accepted English version but I guess the official version is DP.

[jaichind]

From Kyoto news agency.  I have go look into which seats they are


JCP agrees to withdraw 9 candidates from upper house election
Sunday, March 20, 2016 06:26 AM
TOKYO, March 20 Kyodo
The Japanese Communist Party has agreed to withdraw nine candidates from the upcoming House of Councillors election and may hold back at least 11 more in a push by opposition parties to form a united front against the ruling coalition, opposition sources said Sunday.
The party originally planned to field candidates in 30 of 32 single-member electoral districts. With talks under way to unify more candidates, opposition parties may be able to agree to cooperate in 80 percent of the 32 districts, a senior official of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan said.
Talks between opposition parties accelerated after the JCP agreed to build a unified force against the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on condition that unified candidates call for a scrapping of the new security laws that the JCP and other opponents claim to be unconstitutional.
The laws enacted in September 2015 mark a change from Japan's exclusively defense-orientated post-World War II security policy, greatly expanding the role the Self-Defense Forces can play when they are sent abroad.
JCP leader Kazuo Shii has said the party would withdraw "a considerable number of its candidates" from the single-member districts, but has not provided a detailed plan.
Half of the 242 upper house seats come up for election every three years. Of the 121 seats up for grabs, 73 will be filled by winners in single- and multiple-member electoral districts while the remaining 48 are chosen under the nationwide party-list proportional representation system.
Abe's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner the Komeito party presently control a majority in the upper house and a two-thirds majority in the 475-seat House of Representatives, the more powerful lower chamber of the Diet.

[jaichind]

Latest on DP-PLP-JCP talks on 1- seat districts. 



It seems deals have been made in

青森(Aomori) - DP candidate
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - cente-left independent
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate

This deals puts Miyagi, Niigata, and Yamanashi  in play although LDP most likely still have a slight advantage.  It also gives DP an advantage in Nagano and adds to the OSMP advantage in Okinawa.  The rest does not matter as LDP is going to win no matter what.

Other key targets for an alliance must be 福島(Fukushima) where a DP-JCP deal would give the DP the upper hand over LDP, 滋賀(Shiga) where a deal will make it a tossup, and 大分(Ōita) where a deal will put it in play.  What should be an worry for DP should be that talks are going nowhere in 山形(Yamagata) where a deal would put it in play and 三重(Mie) where a deal would give the DP an advantage.  In Mie the local DP chapter is quite hostile to JCP so it is not clear a deal is possible.  Not clear why there are not talks in 岩手(Iwate) where PLP-JCP relationships seems quite positive.  I guess PLP will win no matter what.   There are talks for other 1- districts but they do not matter as LDP will win them no matter what.  I have listed the ones that matter.

[jaichind]

jaichind, any chance Minshintō gets a logo or something unveiled soon? I'd like to put one in my signature.

(P.S. the official English name is just 'Democratic Party', which I think is stupid.)

It seems that this is the DP logo



Not very original.  As much as I despise the ROC DPP even I think their logo is better.

[jaichind]

熊本(Kumamoto) had an election for governor this weekend whose exit polls are quite instructive on the nature of polling in Japan.  A popular incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties cruised to victory with 68.1% of the vote.  A pro-LDP independent also tried out his luck and got 27.3% of the vote while the pro-JCP candidate got 4.6%.   The exit poll is quite interesting



The partisan breakdown of the voters are the following

LDP   53
DPJ   12
KP      3
JCP     2
JIP      1
ORA    1
SDP    1
None 27

What one gets from this are that KP must be very weak here and LDP super strong.  While LDP-KP is very strong in Kumamoto these exit polls are quite deceptive on the relative strength of parties.  The PR vote in Kumamoto in 2014 was

LDP  37.3%
KP    18.0%
DPJ   14.1%
JIP    14.9%
JCP     8.2%
PLP    1.6%
SDP    3.1%
PFG    2.2%

So while the exit poll got the headline number of LDP+KP roughly correctly, it is way over-biased in favor of LDP.  Many KP supporters are afraid to indicate their support for KP in public, including pollsters.  The KP voter crave social respectability so they usually claim they support LDP which is not illogical given the LDP-KP alliance.  As for non-LDP-KP parties, given the domination of LDP relative to opposition parties many opposition party supporters are reluctant to indicate their partisan alignment so they say none.

This exit poll is example how I usually "un-skew" Japanese polls.  I usually take the LDP+KP vote share in polls and add perhaps 1%-2% and that is what LDP-KP will get.  KP always gets 14%-15% nationally in a low turnout election so the LDP vote share is derived from that number minus 14%-15%.  The rest is all non-LDP-KP.