PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Morning in Atlas]

Fetterman is a weak candidate. Lamb might be the better option here.

I can understand the concerns but Lamb is absolutely not the option. Putting my grievances with him aside, Lamb's campaign strikes me as the same January 6-centered, "orange man bad"-style of campaigning that's failed so much over the past 6 years. These types of campaigns that are nearly devoid of policy and based on empty platitudes are proven not to work, and no amount of fundraising or past electoral performances will change that.

Which makes the entire Philly endorsements even more baffling to me. There are two candidates from Philly, and one in Montco who are more reliable votes than Lamb and need a boost. Why give your endorsements to someone who not only isn't from the area, but is running a failed playbook?

Fetterman might be sleepwalking but Lamb's campaign just gives Sara Gideon/TMac vibes all around. At best it's a case of DNC Brain where they're just incompetent and out of touch but at worst they'd rather lose and keep the grift flowing than win with transformational change.

[Morning in Atlas]

Seriously, I fail to see how Fetterman or Lamb are supposedly weak because of one reason or another. They will perform exactly the same. No one cares about how many tattoos Fetterman has or how establishment the vibes Lamb gives off.

Not the point I was trying to make. It's less about how "establishment" Lamb is and more over the near-total lack of policy in his campaign and how its cornerstone is "Trump is bad".

As I see it, you have a choice between someone who's shown some concerns, three candidates whose electoral performances we don't know, or a guy who's run a terrible campaign that looks like the many terrible campaigns Dems have run over the years. I've made my choice.

[Morning in Atlas]

As an aside, it's funny how the anti-Fetterman crowd defaults to "Well you think everyone you don't like is a Manchincrat."

Ignoring the fact that I've never made the comparison about my Senators, who sold out minimum wage reform for a campaign donation. Or the fact that Lambchin has assigned his own outrageous labels.

[Morning in Atlas]

Seriously, I fail to see how Fetterman or Lamb are supposedly weak because of one reason or another. They will perform exactly the same. No one cares about how many tattoos Fetterman has or how establishment the vibes Lamb gives off.

Not the point I was trying to make. It's less about how "establishment" Lamb is and more over the near-total lack of policy in his campaign and how its cornerstone is "Trump is bad".

As I see it, you have a choice between someone who's shown some concerns, three candidates whose electoral performances we don't know, or a guy who's run a terrible campaign that looks like the many terrible campaigns Dems have run over the years. I've made my choice.

I mean, to be fair, he has been pretty strong in his advocacy to get rid of the filibuster to pass voting rights, BBB, $15 minimum wage, and I'm pretty sure he was a strong advocate for the PRO Act.

I'm with you that his stances on weed and health care and climate change are far too moderate, but I see him as more of a Klobuchar than a Manchin. He'll be reliable vote for the main line agenda, just not willing to go further where it's really needed.

Yeah, all these things are true. I'm more concerned about 6-8 years from now, if PA shifts and we've taken the majority. When Lamb first ran he was against a $15 minimum wage - what's stopping him from flip-flopping again when Buttigieg or whoever retakes the Senate?

My point has always been that we've seen these types of calculated shifts in policy from Lamb before. If he does win and he stays closer, I'll never be more glad to be wrong. But as of now we can't afford to take the risk.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1483467589980413961?t=fiH1Q59AVsUHsXH_cA...

So it's all about stopping the only candidate that can win the general because he's Too Far Left.

Truly amazing stuff, folks. The grifters in power rather lose with their gravy train flowing than win and change the world for the better.

[Morning in Atlas]

OMG this whole anti-Conor Lamb thing is literally a Bernie flashback from 2016. Enough.

Funny how you were dead silent when your candidate was pulling the socialism card out of his ass but when we question his commitment to the party then the calls for unity come out.

You don't want unity. You want a Lambchin coronation.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1483467589980413961?t=fiH1Q59AVsUHsXH_cA...

So it's all about stopping the only candidate that can win the general because he's Too Far Left.

Truly amazing stuff, folks. The grifters in power rather lose with their gravy train flowing than win and change the world for the better.

Aren't you basically making the same argument as he is? You think Lamb would lose and Fetterman would win, and we should all back the candidate who has the best shot at winning?

Let's all be real here - Fetterman is one of the few candidates ideologically close to me. I've been an ardent supporter of his for about five years now.

But looking at Lamb's actual record (namely the strategy he's using and his inability to capitalize on the Parnell news in 2020), the talk about electability is objectively BS.

[Morning in Atlas]

In happier news:

https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1483189581054988289?t=vN9r9_mYMqt9guycbx...

Always good to see a good Democrat get his endorsements. No matter what happens, Kenyatta is gonna have a good future.

[Morning in Atlas]

Fetterman has chosen to duck a forum, his main rivals in this race will attend (Street is completely irrelevant)

Our great lieutenant governor has a full time job to take care of, with his colleague Sharif Street. Who you conveniently cherry-picked an excuse for because their absence doesn't fit your personal narratives.

In fact, it's come to my attention that you knew Fetterman was busy presiding over the Senate and posted this anyway! It's clear that the anti-Fetterman crowd can't hit him on his actual record so they're just resorting to making things up.

Ignoring Black voters in a state where Black turnout can make or break the race seems like...a...plan...

I'd say promising to back Trump over Bernie or Warren ignores black voters more than this incident, but that's just me.

[Morning in Atlas]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.

yeah you're going on ignore at this point, can't do this

Just wait until the next D internal shows. Then Fetterman/Lamb will have it in the bag and Oz is f**ked.

[Morning in Atlas]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

And failed to capitalize on that knowledge!

I could at least understand arguing for Kenyatta or Arkoosh - especially Kenyatta given his performance - but come on. If Lamb wasn't a centrist the same people lauding him would be as vehemently opposed as I am.

[Morning in Atlas]

- There was no way for anyone to have known about the stuff with Parnell until it came out in court in 2021, so attacking Lamb for "failing to capitalize on that knowledge" is pretty silly.  There was no knowledge to capitalize on in 2020.

The protective orders that had been known beforehand? These things were happening in 2017 and 2018.

- If we're being honest, Fetterman had nothing to do with Wolf's 2018 victory and only won the primary for LG b/c he was the only serious non-Philly/Philly burbs candidate in a clown car primary jam-packed with them.  Fetterman has never won an even remotely competitive GE in his own right or even run in one.  Wolf won because he was a popular Democratic Governor running for reelection in a Democratic wave year against an extremely weak opponent who received little help from national Republicans.

A fair criticism - I wouldn't say "only won", but I've been on the record saying that we should take his primary win with a grain of salt.

- Lamb essentially matched Biden's performance in a year where most congressional Democrats under-performed him and has won multiple competitive races in tough districts, dramatically over-performing in two of those three races.

- Neither of Lamb's districts were strongly Democratic-leaning seats.  The first one was a Safe Republican district where Democrats had no business being even remotely competitive during even a wave election.  The second was still a Republican-leaning district where he unseated an incumbent in a blowout victory and then won a tough reelection race in a district with a Republican PVI.

And John Ossoff lost a Clinton-leaning House district in a special to a perennial candidate. I'm more concerned about Lamb's performance now.

And I see a candidate who's sleepwalking and spending his time ranting at critical journalists and throwing shade on Twitter.

- Fetterman has never even run in a competitive GE before.

I don't think anyone's going to argue this.

- Fetterman has been running an extremely lazy, Twitter-oriented campaign and seems to think he's entitled to the seat.  Whatever you think of Lamb's campaign, behaving like you're above putting in the work because you deserve a coronation is not a winning strategy.  Even if you support Fetterman, he needed to start taking this seriously yesterday.

- The shotgun incident is going to be a major problem.  Honestly, this reminds me of the Cal Sextingham incident where most red-avatars were in denial about the fact that the scandal was clearly going to cause a lot of damage.  It's gonna be hard enough to get folks to turnout without nominating a guy who chased an unarmed black man around with a shotgun.

These are fair points. I trust people like R2D2 and KhanOfKhans on it - they have their boots on the ground and I'm just looking over. I hope Fetterman gets his sh*t together soon, especially in time for the general. But overall it's a risk I'm willing to take.

As for the shotgun incident, I've always had a very reasonable take on it. It was unconscionable, revolting, and awful. I don't blame you if you're black and it gives you pause. I also recognize that this incident was 9 years ago, believe he has changed, and that he has done a lot of good for the community. At the same time, his statement doesn't come off like he's admitting he's wrong. An apology would go a long way.

- There is no reason whatsoever to believe Fetterman would perform any better than Generic D with any group of voters.  The most progressive candidate can also be the most electable candidate.  Look at Sherrod Brown.  IIRC Cartwright is fairly progressive and I still think he'd be a much stronger candidate than Lamb.

That's more because of long-standing local connections. I hope Fetterman has built a lot of them in the Pittsburgh area. I think image plays a lot and his image can really help.

I still think Lamb is a stronger candidate than Kenyatta, but at least there's an argument to be made for Kenyatta.  He's a dynamic, exciting candidate who - at least from the admittedly little I've read - seems to be willing to work his a** off to win.  And if you said to me "Kenyatta can pull this off," I'd say "I'm not convinced he can go the distance in this environment, but he might have a path and I'd love to be wrong."  I don't think that would happen and he could even under-perform statewide, but it's possible to envision a scenario where he wins.  Lamb can win too, although he obviously has a different path.  Idk if Lamb or Kenyatta would win, but what I do know is that assuming LARPing WWC folks while running a lazy, Twitter-focused campaign is not a winning strategy.

Arkoosh is just a generic D, so at this point, we should either go with Kenyatta in hopes of generating high enough base turnout to beat the environment or go with Lamb and hope he can run far enough ahead of Generic D to carry the day.     

I agree with your points on Kenyatta. I've always defended him, even when the Berners attacked him for his Biden endorsement and past tweets. I'm more concerned about your record and your policy beliefs, I'm concerned about your policies. Malcolm Kenyatta may have a different way of getting there than I do, but he wants to get there and he'll work his ass off to do it. You don't rise up from Philly state representative to 15% accidentally, and part of me is starting to believe he's the most electable candidate in the race.

I don't know if Fetterman is going to win. But one thing I do know is that Conor Lamb has shown a lot of red flags not only ideologically, but in practice. Of course, there's still 4 more months in the campaign and plenty of time to turn it around. For all we know, those Philly endorsements may put him over the top. If he wins, I'd love for him to be a reliable vote like a Bennet or a Kaine, but I think his ceiling is Warner/Shaheen.

[Morning in Atlas]

Okay this is legitimately concerning. Maybe Kenyatta is the most electable candidate after all.

[Morning in Atlas]

Okay this is legitimately concerning. Maybe Kenyatta is the most electable candidate after all.

Lol no he's not

understandable, thank you for setting me on the right path again

[Morning in Atlas]

Well, good luck. We deserve to lose if we nominate Lamb.

Never underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to organize against leftists.

[Morning in Atlas]

Is there any evidence at all that a Senator Lamb would act like Manchin or Sinema?

The fact that he voted to the right when his district has afforded it, and has been very duplicitous in his opposition for said issues. Not only on weed, but issues like bank reform as well. Sure, he's promised now to end the filibuster, but if we take control of the Senate again and the state trends to Trump it's enough to make me question his commitment.

At this point, we can't afford to take the risk.

Fetterman is running a bad campaign. Perhaps leftists should take responsibility for their own performances rather than blame the shadowy elites.

I prefer Kenyatta over both of the other two. But I accept that he’s unlikely to win.

Trust me - I'm very aware. I know you have your narratives about Bernie Bros, but I'm not your guy. I've been very vocal that Fetterman's lollygagging his way through the primary. Just scroll up the thread.

My issue is that the establishment is astroturfing Lamb over Kenyatta, despite his failures. I've been very vocal in this thread defending your candidate. I'm not concerned with fealty to my candidates or whatever. I'm concerned with your ideology, and Kenyatta is progressive enough. Malcolm Kenyatta is working his ass off and making all the right moves to stay competitive. I see him bringing moderates and Justice Dems together. I see a brilliant candidate from Philly itself. And I see party officials abandoning him for the awful crime of being a progressive.

The party machine is only uniting around Lamb because he is a centrist. Let's drop the "lazy campaign" stuff for a bit - the centerpiece of Lamb's campaign has been January 6th. From my view, Lamb has actively sidelined economic issues, unlike Kenyatta. Multiple internals - including the one that just dropped - have Kenyatta running even. From my view, the party is conflating centrism and fundraising with electability.

I'm not angry about my candidate not getting a fair chance. I'm angry about yours.

[Morning in Atlas]

the centerpiece of Lamb's campaign has been January 6th. From my view, Lamb has actively sidelined economic issues,

I'm not sure this is exactly true. He's getting a ton of union endorsements.

Check his campaign announcement, and his actual campaign. Voting rights and democracy is his #1 issue.

Noble and all and I appreciate his advocacy, but it doesn't put food on peoples' tables.

[Morning in Atlas]

All the more baffling, considering someone from Fetterman's campaign was the one who apparently leaked the internal.

[Morning in Atlas]

I think the DSCC is right to go to bat for Lamb, since Fetterman's running a lazy campaign. I guess that's who I endorse, although I hope he's not another Manchin/Sinema.

I don't know about anyone else but the DSCC endorsing Lamb would actively push me from "bitch about it on Atlas" to "actively encourage friends and family to vote third party".

F**k around and find out.

[Morning in Atlas]

My issue is that the establishment is astroturfing Lamb over Kenyatta, despite his failures.

But why would the establishment support a State Legislator over U.S. Congressman?

They wouldn't. The party itself has become more credentialized and professionalized. I don't think they should be picking any winners and losers.

But if they are, I believe Kenyatta is a more trustworthy vote and has proven himself to be a very good campaigner who is running even with Lamb.

[Morning in Atlas]

I think the DSCC is right to go to bat for Lamb, since Fetterman's running a lazy campaign. I guess that's who I endorse, although I hope he's not another Manchin/Sinema.

I don't know about anyone else but the DSCC endorsing Lamb would actively push me from "bitch about it on Atlas" to "actively encourage friends and family to vote third party".

F**k around and find out.

This is very bizarrely vindictive.

Did Lamb run over your dog or something?

There is really no evidence to support the idea that Lamb would be another Manchin/Sinema, and I don't see any evidence that "the establishment" is giving him an unfair advantage.

Nah. I'm just tired of serial bullsh*tters like Sinema saying one thing to get elected and doing another in office. I've seen enough bullsh*t from Lamb to where I don't trust him.

Not necessarily a Sinema/Manchin problem - I see it from people like Warner and Hassan too. Thanks to recent events in my state I'm pretty blackpilled about the state of the party and would love to be wrong. But I just don't see it.

You call it being vindictive, I call it holding Lamb (and the party trying to coronate him) accountable.

[Morning in Atlas]

I think the DSCC is right to go to bat for Lamb, since Fetterman's running a lazy campaign. I guess that's who I endorse, although I hope he's not another Manchin/Sinema.

I don't know about anyone else but the DSCC endorsing Lamb would actively push me from "bitch about it on Atlas" to "actively encourage friends and family to vote third party".

F**k around and find out.

With respect, I’m pretty sure that’s just you who feels this way.

Cope

[Morning in Atlas]

The Lambchin Copium Tour continues!

I knew I should have listened to OC.

[Morning in Atlas]

Small brain: All the candidates in PA-Sen will be normal, loyal Democrats, unlike Sinema

Normal brain: Lamb is a Kyrsten Sinema Democrat because he will say anything and everything to get elected and will compromise to appease his donors

Big brain: Kenyatta is a Kyrsten Sinema Democrat because of his previous criticism of progressives on Twitter

Galaxy brain:

https://twitter.com/mcbyrne/status/1488531622882426883

[Morning in Atlas]

I mean, I agree that Fetterman has been kind of a political opportunist, but calling him "another Sinema"() because he "ditched Bernie in '20"() is just an absolutely smooth brain take.

Especially pulling for Kenyatta, who was one of Biden's earliest and most vocal supporters in PA...

What is that even in reference to?
Also Fetterman dropped two ads this morning I think these are the first he's released since he announced his run 11 months ago. They're pretty strong and impressive IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xuw-VbTqF14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fG_dyKqb-g&ab_channel=JohnFetterman

Just posting Twitter idiots here for a laugh.